How To Find Value In Football Betting

In this article we’ll look at how to find value when betting on football. We’re going to assume that you have already read our guide to value betting, so you understand the principles of this approach. If you haven’t, we recommend you go and read that first.

Once you’ve done that, we’re ready to move on. Football is one of the best sports when it comes to gaining an edge over the bookies. Firstly, at all good football bookies, there are so many matches and so many markets to choose from. Secondly, there are so many statistics available for you to use – most of which are free to access.

The odds compilers need to come up with prices in all these markets. There is simply no way they can find the time or resources to specialise in every one. So if you’re prepared to do a little bit of work, it’s perfectly possible for you to carve out your own specialist niche in which you know more than the bookie.

Value Betting Football Tips

Many people look to save time by following a value betting tipster. This is fine in principle, as it is obviously much quicker to pay someone else to do the work for you. However there are some serious drawbacks to this approach that you need to consider.

  • The value probably won’t last. Remember that everyone else who is following a tipster will also be betting on exactly the same tips. That means the bookie is likely to change their price and the value will just disappear. Just like arbitrage, it sounds good in theory but rarely works out in practice.
  • The tipster may not actually be any good. Unfortunately the online betting market is awash with tipsters claiming they’ll make you rich. Most simply don’t deliver. You don’t know what system your tipster is using to find his bets, and whether it actually works long term. You could end up losing money and paying them for the privilege!

For these reasons, following a tipster rarely works out in the long run. If you want to be truly successful, you need to copy what professional punters do. Create a system of your own.

Create Your Own Football Value Betting System

First let’s be clear on what we’re trying to achieve. We want to find opportunities where we can place a bet at odds which are higher than the true probability of something happening. Therefore, if we do that we are mathematically guaranteed to make a profit over the long term.

So to do this, we need to know the following:

  1. How to calculate what the actual probability is. This is the basis of our system.
  2. How to convert that probability to odds.
  3. The minimum margin we are prepared to accept. In other words, how much higher than the true probability should the odds be in order for us to place a bet.

So clearly, the key to a successful football value betting system is to find a way to calculate the true probability more consistently and more accurately than the bookies.

Let’s look at a few examples of how you might achieve this.

Example 1: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Example 2: Corner Betting

Example 3: Booking Points

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