If you’re in the process of choosing an online bookie, it’s quite likely that you’ll have considered bet365. So if you’re wondering how to…
In this article we’ll look at how to find value when betting on football. We’re going to assume that you have already read our guide to value betting, so you understand the principles of this approach. If you haven’t, we recommend you go and read that first.
Once you’ve done that, we’re ready to move on. Football is one of the best sports when it comes to gaining an edge over the bookies. Firstly, at all good football bookies, there are so many matches and so many markets to choose from. Secondly, there are so many statistics available for you to use – most of which are free to access.
The odds compilers need to come up with prices in all these markets. There is simply no way they can find the time or resources to specialise in every one. So if you’re prepared to do a little bit of work, it’s perfectly possible for you to carve out your own specialist niche in which you know more than the bookie.
Many people look to save time by following a value betting tipster. This is fine in principle, as it is obviously much quicker to pay someone else to do the work for you. However there are some serious drawbacks to this approach that you need to consider.
For these reasons, following a tipster rarely works out in the long run. If you want to be truly successful, you need to copy what professional punters do. Create a system of your own.
First let’s be clear on what we’re trying to achieve. We want to find opportunities where we can place a bet at odds which are higher than the true probability of something happening. Therefore, if we do that we are mathematically guaranteed to make a profit over the long term.
So to do this, we need to know the following:
So clearly, the key to a successful football value betting system is to find a way to calculate the true probability more consistently and more accurately than the bookies.
Let’s look at a few examples of how you might achieve this.