Football

2021/22 Premier League Outright Bets

Friday 13th August 20:00

WhichBookie football analyst Liam Johnson looks ahead to the upcoming 2021/22 Premier League season and provides ante-post tips for the outright league winner, top scorer and to be relegated.

Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Manchester City 4/5 Outright Winner Place Bet
Chelsea 15/8 Outright Winner
Without Manchester City
Place Bet
Norwich 1/1 To Be Relegated Place Bet
Crystal Palace 7/4 To Be Relegated Place Bet
Son Heung-min 40/1 Top Goalscorer
Each Way
Place Bet
Danny Ings 33/1 Top Goalscorer
Each Way
Place Bet

Date of Tips: 09/08/2021

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:41 09/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

As we head into the new Premier League season, it’s time to take a look at some season-long bets. Although outright markets can mean that your stakes are tied up for the entirety of the season, there is sometimes value in outright markets and some bookies have betting offers available from which you can earn free bets or have your bets paid out as winners early which we will be taking a look at.

Premier League Winner Prediction

Manchester City claimed their title back from 2019/20 winners Liverpool last season by topping the league with 86 points. They were relatively unchallenged given that both Liverpool and Chelsea underperformed for the majority of the season which allowed Manchester United to clinch a rather unexpected 2nd place.

Premier League Winner Outright
Man City4/5sportnation
Chelsea5/1bet365
Liverpool11/2unibet
Man Utd9/1betway
Tottenham60/1paddy power
Arsenal60/1betfair
Leicester66/1skybet

Prediction: Manchester City

There’s no denying that City have the best squad by far. Not only is their starting eleven a match for any team in the world but they also have the depth in their squad to replace players with confidence should they need to. Manager Pep Guardiola is looking to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa and has his eyes set on Tottenham’s Harry Kane and both will add further depth to their squad and help them secure a fourth Premier League title in the past five seasons.

Kane will no doubt get goals for City if he does sign as he’s likely to be given a lot more chances in front of goal that he has been getting at Spurs in recent seasons which may be one of the reasons he has been known to drop back occasionally. Despite that, he finished last season as the Premier League’s top scorer with 23 goals so who knows what his tally would be in a City shirt next season.

Even without Kane, City have a host of other players capable of finding the net. Ilkay Gundogan scored 13 times last season and Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus and Phil Foden each bagging 9.

City are the obvious choice for topping the league this term and although they are priced relatively short at just 4/5 to do so, it’s hard to look anywhere else.

If you place a bet on the outright winner of the 2021/22 Premier League season with Bet365, they will settle your bet early as a winner if the team that you back goes 10 points clear of other teams at any point during the season.

Bet365
Bet365 League Winner Early Payout
You Win If Your Team Goes 10 Point Ahead At Any Point In The Season
Bet365 League Winner Early Payout
Claim Offer

Applies to bets on the To Win Outright market on selected leagues up to and including 9th September 2021. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only. #ad

William Hill are also running a good promotion from which customers can get a £2 free bet every time Harry Kane, Mo Salah, Bruno Fernandes or Raheem Sterling scores a goal in the Premier League in August when they place a £10 win or £5 each-way bet on any 2021/22 Premier League Outright market.

William Hill
Premier League Ante-Post Free Bet Offer
Bet £10 Get £2 Free Bet Per Goal
William Hill Premier League Ante-Post Free Bet Offer
Claim Offer

Min bet £10 win or £5 each way on any 2021/22 Premier League Outright selection. £2 free bet per goal scored by Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Mo Salah (Liverpool), Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) or Raheem Sterling (Man City) scores a goal in the Premier League in August. Free bets credited by midday the following day & valid for 7 days. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleaware.org

Without Man City Prediction

With Manchester City being my league winner prediction, it’s worth taking a look at a betting market without them. Things look a little more competitive in this market with the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd, Leicester and Tottenham all in the running.

Without Man City
Chelsea15/8betway
Liverpool19/1010bet
Man Utd3/1betvictor
Tottenham28/1skybet
Leicester33/1skybet
Arsenal33/1unibet

Prediction: Chelsea

Since Thomas Tuchel took over at Chelsea in January, they’ve looked like a team that could challenge for the title. They’re incredibly more solid defensively and look to have a better system going forward. He lead Chelsea to a Champions League final in which they beat Manchester City 1-0 to lift the trophy for the second time in the clubs history and also guided them to an FA Cup final where they lost 1-0 to Leicester in a match that they mostly dominated.

Players such as Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, N’Golo Kante, Reece James and Christian Pulisic are worthy players in any squad and should Chelsea put pen to paper with Romelu Lukaku, he will add to their attacking threat by some margin.

Other likely contenders in this market of course include Liverpool and Manchester United. Liverpool underperformed last season and even if they are at their best this term, the lack of depth in their squad could be a major issue should key players pick up injuries. The same applies to Manchester United who despite bringing in Raphael Varane and Jadon Sancho, are still lacking quality in areas and unless they keep players fit and play to their maximum potential, could find themselves out of the running when it comes to challenging for 1st or 2nd place.

From the other possible contenders in this market, in particular Tottenham, Arsenal and Leicester, I would fancy the latter to have the best chance of finishing under City. They finished 5th last season but only 3 points adrift of third-placed Liverpool and have shown to be a consistent threat to all teams for several years. They will have to be at their best throughout the season but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish in a Champions League spot come May next year.

Premier League Relegation Predictions

Moving onto the foot of the table and my predictions for which teams are most likely to drop down into the Championship come the end of the season.

Premier League Relegation
Norwich1/1betfred
Watford1/1bet365
Brentford11/10bet365
Crystal Palace7/4william hill
Burnley5/2888sport
Newcastle3/1betfred
Southampton9/2betway

Norwich, Brentford and Watford were promoted last season and this season will be the first in the top-flight for the Bees. Brentford remind me a little of Leeds with their style of play. They’ll head into this season raring to go and will take on any team that is put in front of them. The likely outcome of those tactics will be some mixed results but I’m confident that they’ll pick up maximum points against some of the weaker teams in the league which should be enough to see them finish between 13th – 17th.

Both Norwich and Watford bounced straight back up into the top flight after being relegated in the 2019/20 season. For Norwich, they have an extremely tough set of opening fixtures which could smash their confidence before they have a chance to get going. They’re at home to Liverpool in their opening match which is then followed by a trip to the Etihad to face champions Manchester City, at home to Leicester and then away to Arsenal. If Norwich are going to survive the drop, they will be looking towards Teemu Pukki to win them games. The Finnish striker scored 26 goals for the Canaries last season and there will be a lot of weight on his shoulders heading into this term.

Watford have added to the squad in preparation for the new season with the signings of Danny Rose, Joshua King and Imran Louza. With quite a bit of experience in their squad, I think that they’ll have just enough to see the season out and finish outside of the bottom three. Although, I can see them in the mix of it still.

I expect a few sides from last seasons Premier League to struggle this year and in particular Crystal Palace and Southampton. Palace are going through a transition period with the likes of Andros Townsend, Patrick van Aanholt, Gary Cahill, Mamadou Sakho, Scott Dann and James McCarthy all leaving the club. They have brought in Michael Olise, Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen but whether or not they will settle and perform from the off is yet to be determined. Palace had the fourth-worst defensive record in the league last season and will need to improve on that if they are going to stay up. It’s a big season for them but they could find themselves in trouble towards the bottom of the table for the majority of the season.

Secondly, Southampton could be another team to struggle this season. The main reason being the departure of Danny Ings to Aston Villa which is a huge blow for the Saints. Ings scored 34 goals for Southampton over the past two seasons, including 12 in 2020/21 despite being out injured for a period. He’s a proven goalscorer and his absence will surely leave a void for Southampton in their attacking department. The responsibility of goals will lie on Che Adams’ shoulders this season but if he doesn’t produce, they too could find themselves in a relegation battle throughout the season.

From the other candidates for the drop, I believe Newcastle will be safe. Although they have been in the mix for the past few seasons, they have managed to hold onto some key players such as Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin and have signed Joe Willock on a permanent deal from Arsenal which should be enough for them to finish in a similar position in the table to last season.

Burnley are another team that the bookies fancy to go down which is understandable. They struggled for goals last season and finished just one place above the bottom three. It is possible that they could find themselves down there again but I think that they have enough of an experienced squad to avoid the drop again.

Prediction: Norwich, Crystal Palace

Top Goalscorer Prediction

Last season, Harry Kane finished the season as the Premier League top goalscorer with 23 goals for Tottenham. It’s no surprise to see him as the bookies favourite priced at 10/3 heading into the 2021/22 season, especially considering his possible move to Manchester City, but those odds are just too short for me. Liverpool’s Salah is not far behind in the odds being priced at 9/2 and finished last season just one strike behind Kane on 22 goals. However, he too is a little short for me and although I’m expecting him to be in the mix as he usually is, I won’t be backing him at that price.

Premier League Top Goalscorer
Harry Kane10/3bet365
Mohamed Salah9/2betvictor
Raheem Sterling20/1bet365
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang25/1william hill
Gabriel Jesus25/1betvictor
Timo Werner25/1skybet
Bruno Fernandes25/1paddy power
Sadio Mane25/1bet365
Patrick Bamford28/1boylesports
Jamie Vardy28/1william hill

Things get a lot more interesting when you look past the two favourites and I think that is where the value lies. An injury to Kane and/or Salah would open the contest up to possibly a dozen other players and I would be tempted to back one or two from this group each way.

Should Lukaku make the move to Chelsea, I think he would be a great bet. He’s a proven goalscorer and is almost guaranteed to get on the scoresheet regularly for Chelsea should the deal happen. As the transfer hasn’t been confirmed yet, there are no odds available for Lukaku but they’re definitely worth looking out for should the deal go ahead.

Son Heung-min and Patrick Bamford finished the season with 17 goals in joint-fourth place and from those, I think Son is the better bet this season. He’s an exceptional talent and although it’s unclear how Tottenham will perform this season should Harry Kane leave the club, Son is likely to get goals and at odds of 40/1, he should make a great each way bet.

Gabriel Jesus looks tempting at 25/1 but given the possible signing of Harry Kane, it’s unclear as to how many minutes on the pitch the Brazilian will get throughout the season. Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho is in a similar position as he scored 12 league goals for the Foxes last season but found himself on the bench for 13 of their matches.

Danny Ings has completed his move to Aston Villa and I’m confident that he’ll find the ball at his feet more times than he did at Southampton last season. Ings scored 12 goals last term despite missing several games due to injury and at odds of 33/1, I think there’s value in backing him each way which will pay out if he finishes the season as one of the top four highest scorers.

Predictions: Son Heung-min (each way), Danny Ings (each way)

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