Champions League Group Stage Predictions & Betting Tips

With the 2023/24 Champions League getting underway on Tuesday 19th September, WhichBookie’s top football analyst Liam Johnson shares his thoughts on the group stage of the tournament along with his predictions on which teams will make it through to the knockouts and those that may struggle.

Group A Predictions

Champions League Group A Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Bayern Munich	1/2	1/8
Manchester United	9/4	1/5
Galatasaray	10/1	11/4
FC Copenhagen	33/1	11/2

In terms of a group winner, it’s hard to look past Bayern Munich in Group A. They’ve started the season very strongly and the arrivals of Harry Kane and Kim Min-jae will only increase their chances of progression in the competition this year.

Although at relatively short odds of 1/2, there still may be value in backing the Bundesliga giants as it’s difficult envisioning them slipping up at this stage of the tournament.

The ‘To Qualify’ market is a little more interesting when considering a second team to progress. Manchester United are strong favourites to make it out of the group but it’s far from a certainty considering how they’ve performed in the Premier League so far this year. Galatasaray could be their main threat with Wilfried Zaha and Mauro Icardi their key players.

Odds of 1/5 just aren’t good enough for me to back United with how they’ve been shipping goals of late and I’d much rather take a chance on Galatasaray snatching the second spot at 11/4 which seems like more of a value bet to me.

If you’re looking for a higher-priced bet, Sky Bet are offering a special at 9/1 for Bayern Munich to win all of their group stage games which may be worth a small punt.

Group B Predictions

Champions League Group B Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Arsenal	1/2	1/7
Sevilla	9/2	10/11
PSV	6/1	2/1
Lens	7/1	7/4

Moving onto Group B where Arsenal have been drawn against Sevilla, PSV & Lens.

Arsenal are unbeaten in the league this season and look like capable of competing at the top of the table once again. I’m expecting their Champions League campaign to be no different and I’m not surprised to see them as clear favourites to win Group B. It won’t be an easy task for the Gunners but they should have enough quality to grind out the results and progress to the knockouts as table-toppers.

For another qualifier, it’s between Sevilla and PSV for me and I’m siding towards the latter.

Sevilla won the Europa League last season and they should never be written off but they haven’t had the best start to their season in La Liga having lost three of their opening four matches.

PSV on the other hand have a perfect record from their first four games, scoring 13 goals in the process and conceding just once.

For me, Lens aren’t in contention and I expect them to struggle in this group. They finished second in Ligue 1 last season which was a huge achievement for Franck Haise’s side, but with the departure of several key players, they’re unlikely to match that feat which has shown in their league performances with being winless in their first five.

Group C Predictions

Champions League Group C Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Real Madrid	8/15	1/9
Napoli	9/4	2/7
Braga	12/1	10/3
Union Berlin	12/1	10/3

Group C features 14-time champions Real Madrid and they look set to progress to the knockouts, most likely alongside Napoli.

Union Berlin have the ability to cause an upset as they certainly have goals in them. However, whether or not they can consistently produce shock results throughout the group stage is another matter.

Braga may struggle against the likes of Real Madrid and Napoli and it would take something special for them to progress. They’ve shipped 10 goals in 5 games in the Portuguese Primeira Liga and although they’ve matched that in goals scored, it’s hard to see them troubling sides with a lot more experience, especially given that this will be their first appearance in the Champions League for 10 years.

Group D Predictions

Champions League Group D Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Inter Milan	4/5	3/10
Benfica	5/2	4/7
Real Sociedad	11/2	11/8
FC Salzburg	8/1	3/1

Inter Milan made it through to the final of the Champions League last year and they’re a tempting price of 4/5 to win their group. They’re top of Serie A with four wins from four, scoring 13 and conceding a single goal. They look set for another positive season and I expect them to make it through to the knockout stages and will most likely win the group.

Benfica may pose a threat to Inter but the loss of their star player, Goncalo Ramos to PSG, will be a blow to them. They were also beaten by their group rivals in last seasons Champions League, first 2-0 at home before playing out an entertaining 3-3 draw at the San Siro.

Real Sociedad are another team making their first Champions League appearance in a long time having last qualified in the 2013/14 season, and FC Salzburg don’t have the best record in the competition having made it out of the group stage just once.

Group E Predictions

Champions League Group E Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Atletico Madrid	4/7	1/6
Lazio	3/1	4/6
Feyenoord	7/1	7/4
Celtic	9/1	11/4

Atletico have won just 2 of their 4 La Liga games this season but have scored 10 goals in the process. They finished last season incredibly strongly and I expect them to have another good season once they get settled. They were knocked out of the Champions League in the group stages last year but it’s hard to see that happening again and I think they should have enough to finish at the top of the table.

Last season’s Dutch league winners Feyenoord got off to a pretty shaky start this term, drawing their opening two fixtures against Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam, two teams they were fully expected to beat, and crashing out of the Dutch Super Cup to PSV. However, things have picked up with Arne Slot’s side winning their last three and scoring an impressive 17 goals in the process! Still, their opponents in their Champions League group will be a much sterner test for them and so it remains to be seen if they can challenge for qualification.

Lazio are second favourites to qualify out of Group E and had an impressive Serie A campaign last season, finishing 2nd behind winners Napoli. However, they’ve lost central midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić following his €40 Million move to Saudi club Al-Hilal and are currently 5th in Serie A with 2 wins from 4. At odds of 4/6 to qualify, I’d be tempted to take a chance on Feyenoord finishing above them at a much better price of 7/4.

Celtic, despite dominating the Scottish Premiership over the past decade, have struggled in this competition. Brendan Rodgers’ side finished bottom of their group last season without a single victory and last made it through to the knockouts over 10 years ago.

Group F Predictions

Champions League Group F Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
PSG	11/10	4/11
Newcastle	9/4	4/5
AC Milan	5/1	6/5
Dortmund	11/2	6/4

The Champions League is renowned for a ‘Group Of Death’ each year and this time around, it’s PSG, Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan & Newcastle United that drew the short straws.

Let’s start with Newcastle who are featuring in the Champions League for the first time in 20 years.

Firstly, it’s a big surprise to see Newcastle as second favourites in this group. They had an inspiring season last year, finishing fourth in the Premier League and proving to be an incredibly tough team to beat under Eddie Howe. However, their squad, despite featuring some very talented players, are largely untested against the elites of Europe, and they’re going to find it tough to pick up enough points to make it out of the hardest group in the tournament.

Their first game away to AC Milan on Tuesday evening will be one of the biggest for Howe’s side. If they manage to get a result at the San Siro then it’ll be a huge boost for them, but it’ll be a tough match which is swiftly followed by matches against PSG & Dortmund at St James Park.

Sandro Tonali will return to his old stomping ground after signing for Newcastle from Milan in the summer. However, the £55m AC received for Tonali has been spent wisely on players such as Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze, Yunus Musah, Tijjani Reijnders, and others, giving the Rossoneri a strong squad heading into their new campaign, both domestically and in the Champions League.

Having reached the semi-finals of last seasons Champions League, AC Milan are serious contenders despite being drawn into the most difficult group. Their recent 5-1 defeat to local rivals Inter at the weekend won’t do them any favours heading into their opening match against Newcastle but they were 3 for 3 prior to that.

Dortmund are a tough team to call in this group. They’ve only picked up 8 points from a possible 12 in the Bundesliga so far this term and have lost Jude Bellingham and Raphael Guerreiro which has weakened their squad somewhat.

As you’d expect, PSG are favourites to win Group F and at odds of 11/8, there may be some value in backing them. With a string of quality throughout the side, it would be a surprise not to see them featured in the latter stages of this competition, and although they’ll have to progress past some tough opponents just to get out of the group, I can’t see them not doing that with the players they have at their disposal.

Group G Predictions

Champions League Group G Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Man City	1/10	1/100
RB Leipzig	13/2	1/6
Crvena Zvezda	66/1	7/1
Young Boys	66/1	7/1

Last season’s UEFA Champions League winners Manchester City are 1/100 to qualify and 1/10 to top their group. At those prices, they’re hardly even worth adding to an ACCA. That said, Pep’s side rarely slip up on the big stage and have a good record at home against their main opposition RB Leipzig, having won their last two encounters 7-0 & 6-3 after being drawn in the same group in the previous two tournaments. However, they were beaten at the Red Bull Arena 2-1 in the 2021 competition and only managed a 1-1 draw last season which will give the Bundesliga side a glimmer of hope in this year’s UCL.

RB Leipzig should progress with City with Young Boys and Crvena Zvezda unlikely to pose too much of a threat. However, at odds of 1/6, there really isn’t a betting opportunity available in this group.

Group H Predictions

Champions League Group H Odds
	To Win Group	To Qualify
Barcelona	2/7	1/16
FC Porto	3/1	1/3
Shakhtar Donetsk	20/1	7/2
Antwerp	22/1	4/1

Finally onto Group H where five-time winners Barcelona meet FC Porto, Shakthar Donetsk and Antwerp.

Barca look set to dominate this group and Xavi’s side to finish top could make a worthy addition to an accumulator. Ilkay Gundogan, João Felix and João Cancelo are all good recent additions to the squad, and Robert Lewandowski is showing no signs of slowing down at an age of 35, bagging 3 goals in 5 La Liga games already this season.

A slight disadvantage for Barcelona is that work is being carried out on the Camp Nou which means their home games have been relocated. However, they should still progress from this group, most likely by finishing top.

This is the first time in history that Antwerp have qualified for the Champions League and I can’t see them troubling the likes of Barca or Porto, and I would choose the latter to qualify over Shakhtar.