Horse Racing

Ayr Sunday 18th April

Sunday 18th April 13:50

WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides and preview and betting tips for the 13.50 at Ayr on Sunday 18th April

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Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Marown 15/2 E/W
Ayr 13.50
Place Bet

Date of Tips: 18/04/2021

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:43 18/04/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Having taken a look at the two big races on today’s feature Coral Scottish Grand National card just under three weeks ago, and plumped for Milkwood at 12/1 for the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2.25 and Dingo Dollar at 16/1 for the big one at 3.35 – I am no hurry to oppose either, especially Milkwood, who looks a perfect Scottish Champion Hurdle type, and is into a general 5/2.

Neil Mulholland’s hurdler was asked to sit a lot closer to the pace in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, than he had done previously, and it appeared to really suit him. He has the wood over Anna Bunina and Thyme White on that evidence, and I do think that is the key piece of form, so with the prospect of a slightly more tactical race today, both the vanquished horses can get a lot closer to Milkwood. For all that, I’d very surprised if they could turn around the deficit.

While in the Coral Scottish Grand National, you can still back Dingo Dollar at 11/1, and that looks well worth taking if you’re not already on. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens with regard to jockey bookings – as Sandy Thomson’s stable jockey Ryan Mania is now available, after his chosen mount Vintage Clouds was declared a non-runner. In Mania’s absence, title-chasing Brian Hughes had been booked for the ride on Dingo Dollar. Intriguing sub-plot though it is, either way, both Hughes or Mania would clearly be no negative to the horse’s chances.

Mister Fogpatches, being the only Irish-trained runner in the field, has been predictably popular in the market, and does have good Leopardstown handicap chase form that has been advertised by Livelovelaugh and Snugsborough Hall in the Topham Chase at Aintree. But he just looks a little less than fluent over his fences at times, and in a race where you need to be slick to hold your position, I can see his slight tendency to shift right at his fences also counting against him.

At a wild price, Cool Mix can run well, as he comes alive at this meeting and has the requisite pace to lie up. Whether he will truly stay is an unknown, but he’ll give himself the opportunity to find out at least.

As for an additional daily selection today, I have been waiting to see if the CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase at 1.50 has been the plan all season for the Nicky Richards-trained Marown. It seems it has thankfully, and at 15/2 each-way generally for four places, he is a sound bet to appreciate a well-run race over 3m on decent ground.

Plenty of shrewdies will be on the likes of Pilbara, Five Star Getaway and Dublin Four, and they will all surely run well, but today’s set-up could bring about a significant chunk of improvement from Marown.

Alan Sharp says

Thanks for the two at Ayr today , Will. I backed them in singles and doubles 2 weeks ago. I am incredibly thankful to you. I also much appreciate your reasoning.
Alan

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