Date of Tips: 10/10/2020
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:34 10/10/2020) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
The jumps juices are flowing again after a day of fascinating action at Chepstow yesterday, and in particular those juices seem particularly potent in the Paul Nicholls’ camp as they had a brilliant day with four winners and a number of other horses running notably well.
Conversely, the day didn’t go as well for his main west country training rival Colin Tizzard, and he has seen fit to withdraw his lovely young chaser Fiddlerontheroof from today’s novice chase on the card, on account of the ground drying up.
It would’ve been great to see the physical progress that Fiddlerontheroof had made over the summer, but it seems he will remain under wraps for now, but that shouldn’t and won’t hinder me from suggesting the Cheltenham festival ante-post recommendation that was in the offing anyhow…
That is to suggest backing Fiddlerontheroof each-way for the 2021 Marsh Novices’ Chase (the opening race on the New Course on day three) at 33/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power or Boylesports. But what about Envoi Allen I hear you cry! Well, he was recommended as a bet at 5/1 for this race as early as April, in combination with Shishkin for the Arkle as an each-way double. Gordon Elliott’s flagbearer had the Marsh Novices’ Chase confirmed as the likely target earlier this week, so all is good there.
With that in mind, a quick scan down the list of those chasing Envoi Allen in the market, and it is very hard to find anything that has the race as a likely target. Shishkin will surely stick to 2m and the Arkle, The Big Getaway has already chased home Envoi Allen at Cheltenham and will presumably be upped in trip this season, Honeysuckle has much more likely options in trying to retain her Mares’ Hurdle crown or the new Mares’ Chase, Thyme Hill will stay over hurdles and bid for a Stayers’ Hurdle win, and Monkfish will stay at 3m surely too. Beyond that there is little else.
So, in taking the 33/1 each-way now, we could be sitting on a very appealing alternative option to Envoi Allen come March time. Joe Tizzard was quoted as saying that the race would be his likely target, and for a horse who reminds me quite markedly of Lostintranslation (second to Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 Marsh (then JLT) Novices’ Chase), I am excited to see how much he can improve and flourish for fences.
Sent off a well fancied 6/1 shot for last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the relative test of speed and a busy season combined to produce an under-par performance. Knockers will point to the fact that the form of his novice hurdling campaign will need improving upon, and of that I agree. However, if you look back to his point-to-point and bumper form, then it stacks up pretty nicely with some of the best young horses around.
Without a doubt, Fiddlerontheroof will come into his own over fences, and whenever we do see him out this season, it could become patently clear that he is no 33/1 shot for the opening race on the Thursday of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.