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Horse Racing

Cheltenham – Sunday 14th November

Sunday 14th November 14:55

WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith has two big priced selections in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday, in addition to the ante-post advice for the Southern National at Fontwell Park.

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Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Bua Boy 14/1 each-way (6 places)
Cheltenham 14.55
Place Bet
Tudor City 40/1 each-way (6 places)
Cheltenham 14.55
Place Bet

Date of Tips: 13/11/2021

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (19:01 13/11/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Firstly, a quick word for Midnight Shadow winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday in what was a hugely exciting race run at an unrelenting tempo. He had to overcome being left alone at the second last, a mistake at the last, and the propensity for horses to idle furiously when left alone up that most punishing of run-ins.

I’m not one for emotion at the end of races, as usually, what will be will be – but I don’t mind admitting I was urging him home in a vociferous manner!

Anyway, enough of that, on to Sunday – for followers of this column in the week, we have some nice prices about a couple in the Southern National at 3.10 at Fontwell Park, and fingers crossed they give us a good run for our money.

While Cheltenham’s Sunday card is more about quality than quantity for the most part, except for the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at 2.55, which is a real cracker, and a very meaty betting heat.

Apart from Jesse Evans, who has been well found in recent days, I don’t really like the front of the market. No Ordinary Joe and West Cork may lack a little for experience, while Adagio and Tritonic have been harshly weighted on account of decent juvenile seasons, and Advanced Virgo doesn’t look the most progressive of the Irish challengers. That particular title is most likely to be fought out between Jesse Evans and Bua Boy.

So, with the price discrepancy between them as big as at least double in some places, it is with swift assurity that I recommend Bua Boy at 14/1 each-way with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook or Boylesports, who are all offering 6 places on the race.

Jesse Evans and Bua Boy both fared very well in competitive handicap hurdles at the Galway Festival, and while it would be understandable to be getting more excited about Jesse Evans’ run in the Galway Hurdle itself, the run of Bua Boy when second to Arcadian Sunrise a day later might actually be more noteworthy.

Time comparisons, albeit tricky as the rail was pushed out for the day after the Galway Hurdle, see Jesse Evans and Bua Boy very closely matched. So, with Arcadian Sunrise going on to win a valuable prize on the flat at York subsequently, and plenty of beaten horses coming out and winning, Bua Boy’s form looks very strong.

Particularly, when you consider that he travelled widest of all for the whole journey too, which is definite no-no at Galway, whereas Jesse Evans had a lovely inside trip through the Galway Hurdle.

The pair have gone their separate ways since then, with Jesse Evans confirming his wellbeing with a couple of uncompetitive spins on the level. Whereas, giving even further credence to Bua Boy’s progressive profile, he then went on to fight out the finish of a valuable event at Listowel’s harvest festival.

Again, the form of that race is very strong, with Eskylane dotting up at Down Royal for followers of this column, and Advanced Virgo being well beaten off too.

Trainer Denis Hogan must be eyeing up a famous day at the greatest sporting amphitheatre of all, as he has chosen to keep the ride himself, as he clearly gets on very well with the horse.

Not lacking for competitive nature, Hogan won’t be giving an inch, and hopefully he follows the ‘Paddy Brennan route’ and sticks wide on the hurdles course, to grab the rail in the straight. It really is a very strong bias at this meeting, time and time again.

At 14/1 each-way with the above-mentioned firms, Bua Boy can provide the Irish with yet another prize at this hallowed track, and it would be a shame not to financially piggyback on to that!

Just before I sign off, there is another Irish-trained horse that is wildly overpriced also – he wouldn’t be as progressive as some, but he has been there, done that, and bought the proverbial saddlecloth.

Tudor City was only 2¼ lengths behind Jesse Evans in the Galway Hurdle, despite a much worse trip round, and can be backed at 40/1 each-way with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook, again for 6 places.

The better ground will be in his favour, he will love the frenetic tempo, and comes into this year’s renewal in much better heart than last season, having won impressively at Leopardstown last time.

For lovers of official ratings patterns, he is on the same mark (139) as when close up in this year’s Galway Hurdle and identical also to the mark he won the 2019 Galway Hurdle from.

Given the usual inflation from Irish to UK mark, and the fact the very capable Maxine O’Sullivan takes off a further 5lbs, he is very nearly the best handicapped horse in the race! 40/1 you say…

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