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|Paint The Dream||12/112/1||EW 3 places 1/4
Coral Bet Bundles Handicap Chase - Newbury - Fri 25 Nov
|Place BetPlace Bet|
Date of Tips: 21/11/2022
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:56 21/11/2022) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
There was a wonderful quote from Newbury clerk of the course Keith Ottesen a few days ago, suggesting his turf was like a ‘thirsty hippo.’
With this in mind, the schemozzle at Ascot last weekend, and also the fact that there’s a good chunk of rain due in Berkshire today – we’ll surely get something like ‘good to soft’ ground for Newbury’s flagship two day meeting this weekend. Whether it be authentic or otherwise.
Hopefully we get some attractive races from a betting perspective as confirmations and then declarations begin to filter in, and there is one ante-post market that makes some appeal already on Friday’s Newbury card – the Coral Bet Bundles Handicap Chase at 2.30.
There are 16 entries currently, but no fewer than 10 of them either have confirmed alternative entries or, (tracking the weekend entries as I write,) entries that will soon be published for other races over the course of the weekend.
There were two horses who are clearly being aimed at this race at Newbury on Friday, who made some appeal to me – Beakstown and Paint The Dream.
Beakstown is a horse with more ability than his rating suggests, but despite running a cracker in the Old Roan Chase on his reappearance, doesn’t excite me as a betting proposition at a best price of 6/1.
His only win over fences came at Ayr in April when two of his market rivals failed to complete, and was against less classy opposition than he usually competes against. He will run well, but is priced about right and might go off artificially short on account of the Old Roan form.
Paint The Dream however, makes a good deal of appeal from a value perspective, at 12/1 each-way generally.
Fergal O’Brien’s chaser may have to shoulder top weight as last year’s winner Fanion D’Estruval has alternative entries in the Coral Gold Cup and also the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on Saturday. But given the recent theme of top weights proving their class from the top of the handicap, that is clearly no negative.
What is also no negative is the fact that Paint The Dream is a perfect two wins from two starts over fences at Newbury, having won a novices’ handicap chase in 2020 and then romping away with last season’s valuable Greatwood Gold Cup. It’s worth noting that Friday’s race is worth a very similar amount to winning connections.
Paint The Dream’s seasonal reappearance wasn’t full of promise, but the fast ground at Chepstow and the fact he struck into himself give cause for forgiveness, and he duly proved that all wrong with a massive run in the Charlie Hall Chase, when he set the fractions for a well-run race but ultimately didn’t stay the trip.
Dropped back to his favoured trip of 2m4f at his favourite track, Paint The Dream represents the value ante-post play of the week at a general 12/1 each-way for Friday’s Coral Bet Bundles Handicap Chase at 2.30 at Newbury.