WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Silence Please||10/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 09/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:47 09/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It has been a case of so near yet so far in recent weeks as I have had a lot of selections hit the frame without entering that winners enclosure. As frustrating as this has been, it has limited the losses and has provided me with enough hope to keep trusting the process and that the winners will eventually fall my way. The Doncaster St Leger meeting has started, with Day One providing some interesting results. Heading into Day Two, I quite fancy a few horses and I’m hoping that we can lead towards the weekend in good form ahead of a busy, blockbuster weekend of flat racing.
The 1.40 race is the first race to mention on this card and houses my first selection of the day. I wouldn’t be a massive fan of betting in nurseries but I am shocked with the price one can procure this morning about Summer’s Day for the typically in-form pairing of Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Having been progressing silently in her first two starts, she justified favouritsm in ready fashion down in Brighton and looks the typical horse from this yard to continue to improve through racing. This combination took out the nursery on the first day in ultra impressive style, and I am hoping for a similar story today. This filly is as big a 4/1 in some places, which I think is far too big given her progressive profile on handicap debut. A mark of 81 should not be beyond her and I’ll be backing her to put a second win in a row on the board.
The 2.10 race is a highly luctrative sales race being ran for a winning prize of just under 100,000. This has attracted a big field of 21 to post, and sees the Sales race winner from York, Ever Given, vying to win his second big pot in a row. However, he has another big field to contend with and it’s very hard to back up victories in these sort of races. I’ll instead be siding with an each way alternative, and a horse who didn’t run to his best behind Ever Given at York. System looked like a well above average type on her first two starts this year for Richard Hannon, and followed that up with a competitive and close up fifth in a Group 3 at Ascot. Despite being well fancied at York, she lanquished in eight, which was her first set back of her career and now perhaps has something to prove. However, the price is well reflective of that, and at a price of 12/1 with SkyBet, she looks a decent price. Given that SkyBet are also paying out six places in this race, I think System could well outrun those odds.
The 3.15 is the Park Hill Stakes over 1m6f, which is one of the co-feature events on the card this afternoon. It has attracted a field of 8 to the post this afternoon, after an early non-runner this morning. Free Wind has looked impressive for the Gosden’s in recent starts, but she has it to prove back in England and over a longer trip than she has been running over. Instead, I will be siding with the Irish raider, Silence Please, who may well have a better chance than her price would suggest in this contest. This filly has been knocking at the door in plenty of stakes races in Ireland this year without getting her turn in the winners enclosure, this has including following in Tarnawa and the smart, Thunder Kiss. This step up in trip looks required given recent evidence and she could run above market expectations. Quite bizarrely, given it’s an eight runner race – SkyBet are offering 4 places, and I am taking that opportunity in stride to back this filly with that bookmaker. Silence Please is 10/1 with SkyBet – which seems a more than fair price.