WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Tipperary today.
Date of Tips: 01/04/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:50 01/04/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It’s West Wales Grand National day at Ffos Las this afternoon, and what used to be a race run in mid-winter in usually atrocious conditions, has been moved to it’s customary spring-time spot, and has been rewarded with a competitive field of 14.
The feel-good story would be rapid improver Volcano winning for part-time beautician/part-time trainer Sheila Lewis, and you’d be hard pushed to suggest Volcano’s eruption through the ranks is at an end, such was his superiority at Warwick last time.
But he is up in grade obviously and a skinny enough price, so a better betting opportunity possibly comes in the following race at 5.10 – a 2m6f mares’ handicap hurdle. Olly Murphy has been having a good spring with his horses, and has a great chance of notching another winner, in the shape of the unexposed Fivetotwelve, who is a sound each-way bet at 10/1 with BetVictor. BetVictor are just a number of layers who are offering four places too, which is a nice bonus.
Fivetotwelve’s first two starts over hurdles were in strong-looking novice events at Warwick and Chepstow. In the former race, she was by no means disgraced behind the classy Galice Macalo and Marada, and handicap winners have also come from the also-rans that day. While, in the Chepstow race, she was just over 10 lengths behind subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory and Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle third Bravemansgame.
On the back of those efforts, you’d expect a handicap mark perhaps edging into the 120’s, but given the third piece of evidence that the handicapper considered was a never-nearer second at Market Rasen, it clearly elicited a downplaying of her achievements – as she was handed a tempting looking mark of 109.
Pitched into a competitive mares’ handicap hurdle at Market Rasen on ground softer than ideal on her handicap debut, and she fared well enough to think that improvement would be forthcoming, on better ground and granted a stiffer test of stamina.
That is exactly what she gets today over 2m6f at a galloping track like Ffos Las, and at 10/1 with BetVictor, Fivetotwelve represents a really nice each-way play.