WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Joan of Arc||15/8||Win
|Gin on Lime||9/4||Win
|Sole Pretender||12/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 29/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:43 29/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
As to be expected, this week has been difficult and the last couple of days have left a few scars with a few poor performances and a few near misses. However, July has been a very good month for us overall so we have a bit of cash to play with – and I’ll be hoping to turn around the fortunes of the last couple of days with a few winners. There is plenty of competitive racing to get stuck into, and it’s been very hard for me to narrow down selections – so therefore it is a lively and busy day for those thinking of following me in.
To mix things up, I am going to start with my two selections from Glorious Goodwood today. Goodwood has been cruel so far this week, with plenty of near misses and what ifs from the racing so far. Both Siskany and Poetic Flare hit the crossbar yesterday. In the 3.00 race, the Gordon Stakes, we see Roger Varian’s Third Realm head the betting after a solid run in the Derby. He has looked a decent type this year and has the feather in the cap of beating Adayer in the Lingfield Derby Trial earlier this year. However, that rival has now progressed past him – and I’m never too keen to be getting stuck into these horses at these prices. Instead, I’ll be taking Wordsworth for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, who is battle hardened and also handles the ground very well. This is a marked step down from his last two assignments and unless his busy schedule catches up with him, he should take some beating. At a general price of 3/1, I’ll be having a bet.
35 minutes later on the Goodwood card is their feature race of the afternoon, and sees a brilliant looking renewal of the Nassau Stakes – with plenty of fillies with different form lines and different preparations are coming to meet each other. Yet again, with the ground to be the way it is, I will be siding with Joan of Arc, who has already shown off a distinct aptitude for performing in such conditions. Last time out, she won the Prix De Diane at Longchamp, which even though is a far sight off some of the achievements of the favourite, put her in good enough form to challenge hard. Adding to my thinking is the generous weight for age allowance that Joan of Arc receives – which should leave her with a massive chance. She is a general price of 15/8, which is fair.
Moving onto Galway now, and the proper jumps action that is coming our way – and I can’t resist having a few darts at this card. Starting off with the 5.45, which is an excellent Graded Novice Chase. I can’t understand how Gin on Lime isn’t shorter in this contest, due to her exciting transition to fences this summer. After a few no shows around 10 months ago, she has been 3 from 3 this summer. What has been most pleasing has this horse’s ability to jump at pace and Galway looks like it might well suit this quick mare’s style. With plenty of these in behind having had jumping issues in their time, she might be able to exploit this. At a best price of 9/4 with PaddyPower, I thought she would be a shorter price and I think it is value.
Moving onto the Galway Hurdle at 6.15, I will be back to siding with an each way selection after a few shorter prices earlier on in this preview for my standards. The Galway Hurdle has been won recently enough by some classy sorts at the top of the betting – so therefore I am keen to potentially go down that route. The horse I have landed on is Sole Pretender, for Norman Lee, who has had a wonderful summer so far. This flag bearer for the yard is an incredible servant and his win in the Grimes Hurdle last time out was seriously taking effort against a JP McManus battalion. He was a close up 5th in this race two years ago off a 3 pound lower mark, but that is offset by Mike O’Connor’s claim. Paddy Power are offering 12/1 about Sole Pretender for six places, which is a more than fair each way price.
The 7.45 is a good handicap hurdle over 3 miles and I am a big fan of Hewick in this race for Shark Hanlon and Jody McGarvey. I had some luck with this horse last summer at big prices, and he has returned this summer in similar form and is upwardly progressive at the age of six. Having transferred to fences, he won his Beginners Chase before pushing Cavalry Master all the way in a rated novice last time out. He now steps back to hurdles off a favourable mark of 116, and if getting back to some of his form, should be bang there. He is a decent price of 17/2 with SkyBet with a whopping 6 places available, which looks a good each way bet.
And finally, after a busy day, we will be looking for some joy in the lucky last at Galway as I’m targeting the get out stakes for hopefully some late profits. It is no surprise that the horse that catches the eye in this race is Dad’s Lad, whose connections must be disappointed that he has yet to get off the mark thus far. However, he is owned by the Mee family, and therefore you’d assume that this has been the plan for quite a while at this stage. He has come 2nd over this course before to a decent type, so we know he will act on the track and this doesn’t look like a race with a great amount of depth. At a price of 5/2 with William Hill, I’ll be hoping the tried and tested ‘Mullins in the Bumper’ rings true, and we finish with a winner.