WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Wouldn't You Agree||14/1||each-way
Date of Tips: 28/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (07:52 28/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
A switch to the jumps track at Galway will hopefully see a slight change of luck for our selections today, and the highlight being the ever-captivating Tote Galway Plate at 6.15, in which I will kick things off.
Willie Mullins has, somewhat surprisingly, only won the race on one occasion courtesy of the versatile and brilliant mare Blazing Tempo ten years ago. He has however, gone close on a whole host of other occasions, and it is last year’s slightly unlucky runner-up Royal Rendezvous that can provide him with a second Galway Plate.
Only just touched off by Early Doors, after being slightly short of room on the run-in, he fairly flew in the final furlong. Safe in the knowledge now that Royal Rendezvous will stay every yard of the trip, Paul Townend can afford to be a little more aggressive in the early skirmishes.
At 9/1 each-way for six places with William Hill, he is surely the bet in the race, given his previous track form, which includes a maiden hurdle victory here in 2018. Since his run in the race last year, he has been kept fresh for this with only two subsequent starts.
Throw out his run at Punchestown, when nothing went right from the very outset, and instead he advertised his (potentially improved) wellbeing with a ready win over hurdles at Ballinrobe.
In a race that looks like a classy enough edition on account of the plethora of 150+ rated horses, and the fact that the bottom weight is as high as 140-rated, I feel the race actually contains a fair few whose best days are behind them.
Royal Rendezvous however, is still very lightly raced for a nine-year-old, and has much more scope for improvement than many, and has to be backed at 9/1 each-way with William Hill.
Elsewhere at Galway, there are number of fiendish handicaps, where you could draw up a shortlist into double figures, and two bumpers, which never really appeal to me. So, the other bet at Ballybrit comes in the interesting-looking Tote+ Placepot Pays More Novice Hurdle at 5.10.
The shape of the race is unappealing enough, given the 7 runners and a number of unexposed maiden/novice hurdle winners from leading yards, but I strongly feel that Wouldn’t You Agree is overpriced at 14/1 with Bet365.
His form is as strong as any in the race, and he could well improve for the extra stamina test that Galway could bring about. In addition to a tendency to slightly adjust right at his hurdles, obviously helping Wouldn’t You Agree at Galway.
Sometimes firms offer 3 places on these 7 runner races at the big meetings, but as yet none are willing to break rank. So, for now, I will stick with recommending Wouldn’t You Agree at 14/1 each-way with Bet365, with just the two places.
(However, from about 10am, some firms will definitely offer a market with three places – William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral chief among them – if you delve deeply enough into their website/app. I will be holding off until then, in the hope of securing anything north of 8/1, with these three places.)
Goodwood passed me by a little yesterday, with the ground the obvious unknown factor. It didn’t seem to be too bad and assuming they miss any showers, it could be nearing good to soft at some stage later today.
What will be a notable factor is the forecast strong headwinds, and when allied to the 7f trip being usually pretty draw reliant (to low numbers,) I am going to suggest that today could be the day that Vadream realises the notable potential she has shown this season, in the Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes at 2.25.
She is 6/1 with Paddy Power for four places each-way, and will find this test just about perfect for her set of attributes, on the evidence of her four runs this season. 7f on a speed favouring track, with a bit of dig in the ground, a number of pacesetters in the race who will find their breath caught by the headwind late on, and with Jamie Spencer to execute the hold-up tactics – and it all looks right for Vadream today.
Chief among the dangers could be the classy stablemate Onassis, who has crucial course winning form too, but I just favour the well-drawn and improving Vadream.