Grand Sefton – Aintree Saturday 6th November

Will Smith Betting Tips – Grand Sefton Chase – Aintree – Saturday 6th November

Timing is everything, as any sportsperson will tell you. It is a key factor in most sports, and finding the perfect storm where it feels like it comes naturally is of course a mix of hard work, skill and perhaps a little luck too!

Similar comments apply when it comes to punting, as making profit and finding value is something which often there is a very small window of opportunity.

Monday’s can often be such a window, as the entries are confirmed for the early entry races that will feature in the upcoming weekend. It is a lovely period for ante-post punters, as you can quite quickly get excited about snaffling some big prices about horses soon to be (hopefully) confirmed for their confirmed target.

The one such race this coming weekend is the Betway Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at 2.15 at Aintree on Saturday. It is a race that has been moved forward a month, to provide this early season meeting with a highlight over the National fences.

A glance at the ante-post market sees Caribean Boy as the favourite, and while he has been confirmed by Daryl Jacob last week as having this race as his intended seasonal opener, he was pulled up over these fences in the Topham back in April.

While he is very classy on his day, there are two negatives for me – the ground, which is soft, heavy in places with more rain to come today, and perhaps a top up on Friday and Saturday. Also the likely big field, as to my eye he just looked a little hesitant in the hustle and bustle of the Topham.

With doubts about a few others at the shorter prices, including the likes of Senior Citizen, who won’t enjoy the testing conditions, it is a race that is ripe for some big priced ante-post picks.

Step forward Henry De Bromhead and Spyglass Hill, who at 16/1 each-way generally, as I write on Monday morning, is a corking bet.

Having been confirmed as being aimed here by a recent stable tour in the Racing Post by De Bromhead, it is hoped he will be confirmed at the five-day entry stage.

If he is, then he won’t be anywhere near as big as 16/1 come post time, as on his day he is a very classy chaser. 2m5f on testing ground are just about his optimum conditions, and fresh off a massive run in the Kerry National, behind a horse, Ontheropes, that we will hear plenty more about, Spyglass Hill is a proven graded performer and should be able to dominate a field that will be mostly made up of handicappers.

A mark of 146 means Spyglass Hill will be giving only a handful of lbs to horses who have been exposed in normal handicaps on these shores, and can in no way boast the kind of form that has seen Spyglass Hill finish 2^nd in a Grade 3, 3^rd in a Grade 2, and would have probably won a Grade 3 at Naas a while back, if not for tipping up at the second last.

Given Spyglass Hill has a lovely prominent run-style too, he could be perfectly suited to the demands of the National course at Aintree.

The above comments which could easily apply to Jamie Snowden’s Thomas MacDonagh also, who has been aimed at this race too, according to this trainer in the Racing Post.

Thomas MacDonagh is a bold jumping front-runner, who will love the testing conditions, and is quite possibly very well treated on his handicap mark of 130, as only now will he be maturing into his not insignificant frame as a big, imposing eight-year-old.

His first run last season, when chasing home the top notch Happygolucky and Paint The Dream, who are both now rated 150+ suggests as such, and at 22/1 each-way with Bet365, he is a fabulous price for a horse approaching his peak, and ready to define his career.

Jamie Snowden is also responsible for 2019 victor Hogan’s Height, and he would have a squeak after his reappearance run at Newton Abbot will have blown away the cobwebs.

I realise in publishing this a couple of hours before the confirmation deadline is fraught with the danger that these two, Spyglass Hill at 16/1 and Thomas MacDonagh at 22/1, will not make the final entry list, but every indication suggests they should.

Also, the aforementioned 16/1 and 22/1 might not be available forever, but any double figure prices about either would still be very juicy in my eyes.