Newcastle & Exeter – Tuesday 18th January

A hit and miss day at Punchestown yesterday as despite some very good runs in defeat, we couldn’t quite force a winner over the line. There was not much damage done though and at this moment in time, we are ahead for the month – which is a promising position to be in considering the strains that January can provide. I am straining the big price end of the punting spectrum today – with two selections from Exeter and Newcastle, at vastly differing prices. 

I’m starting by venturing up to Newcastle for one selection and I have found myself looking at the vastly open 3.25 race – which is a handicap hurdle over the guts of 3 miles. 15 runners are going to the post in this contest, and as much as every horse would have to have a chance in this race, there are also plenty of reasons to oppose a lot of these, due to form or a lack of recent winning form. I have delved down deep into the market to find an unexposed horse in this line-up, although it may well take a major leap of faith to back him. 

Soivegotachance is the horse in question, who was desperately disappointing last time out on his handicap debut when finishing last of seven over 2m4f behind FostersIsland. That was a poor effort considering he had shown a lot of promise in his novice form previously. He wasn’t ever travelling and was hanging left when beaten, which are all concerns. However, when you look back at his novice form, which includes a second to Wowsham and a third to Mister Whittaker, there are enough grounds to suggest he could still play a part off a handicap mark of 111. Price is everything and the 28/1 with SkyBet that can be procured, with five places available, is too tempting to turn down. 

Moving to Exeter and the one selection from this track are coming in the final two races of the day – with the first horse taking another mighty leap of faith to back. This is a weak race though over 2m3f and it might pay to keep the tumbling handicap rating of You Say Nothing in mind for ultra shrewd connections in the 3.40 race at Exeter. 

Since joining Christian Williams from Gavin Cromwell, he has not shown much promise in his four starts to date, but he is now lurking off a good mark and whether it’s today or soon – he will be winning races sooner rather than later. He has barely managed to beat a rival home for these connections, but that can often mean nothing when the confidence in the horse is down – and off a lower mark than his second handicap hurdle win in Ireland, the time to strike is coming closer and closer. Williams and Jack Tudor have had a splendid year to date and hopefully that is something that will continue to improve throughout the remainder of the year. 

Bet365 are offering 22/1 for this quirky front-runner, who is paying out 4 places – but he is a worthy bet at these big prices.