WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Tipperary today.
|Rebel At Dawn||33/1||E/W||Place Bet|
|Brad The Brief||12/1||E/W||Place Bet|
|Dancin Inthestreet||7/2||To Win||Place Bet|
Date of Tips: 08/07/2020
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (22:01 08/07/2020) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Action at flat HQ switches to the July Course for the first time since racing’s resumption, and with fresh ground and a worsening forecast through the night and over the next few days, the main thought is perhaps of easing ourselves into it for the first day of Newmarket’s July meeting. But having had a look at the card, there do appear a couple of nice bets.
The world and his wife had Maydanny down as an eyecatcher in the Silver Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, and he will be tough to beat in the 1.15, but the layers believe that to be true also as 6/5 is the best price at time of writing.
It is later in the card, and the prestigious July Stakes over 6f for two-year-olds, that I think features a horse who has not been afforded the respect in the market that he deserves. That is probably as he hasn’t been to Royal Ascot, and doesn’t have an unbeaten profile like Swiss Ace or Escape Route.
Rebel At Dawn is 33/1 with Bet365, and with what could prove to be an advantageous draw hard against the far rail in stall 10, he rates as a very appealing each-way bet. Having had two starts to date, Karl Burke’s sprinter screams to me that he will take quite a notable jump forward for the 6f on soft ground that he encounters here. Sceptics will point to the bare form and crab him, but for all that the race he won at Doncaster didn’t feature any above average types on paper, the time was good, and he raced on the unfavoured middle of the track for a long way.
The following race at 3.35 is over the same course and distance, but is a fiendishly-looking competitive three-year-old handicap, and it is a couple of horses drawn high, near that far rail again, that I like here. Often in big field events on this track it can pay to be near one rail or the other. Let’s hope the action unfolds over that far side, and not the near one.
Anyhow, whatever way you play the race, you must have a saver on Dancin Inthestreet at 7/2 generally, as she was an unlucky in running third behind exciting sprinter Art Power at Royal Ascot. Stepped up to 6f, on ground with a bit of cut in it, and granted luck in running, and she will go very close.
But I quite like the claims of the horse drawn next to her, in the shape of Brad The Brief, who at 12/1 with William Hill, who offer 5 places each-way, looks ripe for a big run. A winner over 6f on soft ground on the Rowley Mile here last season, he produced a tough reappearance win at Haydock before running a screamer back at that track on Sunday, behind two older and much higher-rated horses in the shape of Archer’s Dream and Snazzy Jazzy. Brad The Brief looks tough and genuine and Tom Dascombe’s charge looks just the hardy type to keep improving for racing, and will be galloping on strong.
Meanwhile, up on the Knavesmire, where racing resumes on that hallowed turf – we have the Dante Stakes to enjoy, which is usually a Derby trial. But in this altered season, it becomes a genuine target in it’s own right, and one horse that looks to have been aimed at this is Mark Johnston’s Thunderous, who at 15/2 with Paddy Power, can at least shake up the favourite, Highest Ground, who admittedly will be tough to beat.
Three unbeaten runs over shy of a mile as a two-year-old suggested that Thunderous would be a lovely maturing three-year-old. He duly confirmed that exact notion when a gallant second, in a very good time, to the high-quality Volkan Star at Newmarket, only giving late in the day to a slightly pacier rival. Every drop of rain that falls at York will be welcomed, as Thunderous has a win to his name on very soft ground at Newbury.
The aforementioned Highest Ground is obviously a popular choice for many, and is the right favourite, but Thunderous is definitely over-priced, while a big run from Juan Elcano wouldn’t surprise, as he hasn’t been seen to best effect in two runs so far this season.