WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Tipperary today.
Date of Tips: 29/09/2020
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (16:50 29/09/2020) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
This Saturday acts as something of an hors d’oeuvre for Arc De Triomphe Sunday, but try telling that to Redcar racecourse, who host their feature event of the season – the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy.
It is often a race that is targeted by connections of a developing two-year-old towards the back end of the season, as the weight structure is dependent on the median sales price of the sire’s yearling sales. So, it can reward those that have the canny knack of pinpointing a quality horse at an affordable price.
First season sire Mehmas has been a revelation with his first crop, and that spectacular season was capped nicely by Supremacy’s win in last Saturday’s Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket. What has set his progeny apart initially has been their affordability, and hence I believe one of his offspring can take advantage of a nice weight in Saturday’s feature race.
Mamba Wamba is the filly in question, and at 14/1 with Betfred she is a very appealing price, about a horse who has all the necessary attributes for this race, and has long been trained to peak for it.
A record of one win in six races might put some people off, but she is yet to face a well-run 6f on soft ground where she has a decent draw. A huge eyecatcher on both her first two starts at Newcastle and Royal Ascot, she then disappointed as an odds on favourite at Thirsk on her third start. At which point trainer Adrian Nicholls reached for the cheekpieces, and they galvanised Mamba Wamba into a cracking run over 5f in a Listed race at York on soft ground – where albeit only fourth, she was squeezed up at a crucial stage and was brave to maintain her composure and run on again at the finish.
Building on that run, she then won a novice event back at York in decent fashion, before her final prep run came in the Group 3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting. On a day when low draws were favoured, she kept tabs on the front running Lullaby Moon on the near side, but couldn’t quite reel her in, eventually finishing a game fourth. The winner on the far side was Umm Kulthum, who boosted the form by running a screamer in third in last Saturday’s Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.
Looking ahead to the weather for later in the week, and there is some fairly heavy rain around, so it is fair to presume that the ground will be soft at the very least. And while we are a long way out, the forecasted wind direction is due to be quite significantly down the straight track, making it ideal for horses that are covered up usually. Exactly the run-style that has been consistent with Mamba Wamba’s best form.
So, granted a little luck with the draw when declarations are made on Thursday, and all stars could fall into line. Many of you will know that I have long been a fan of Adrian Nicholls’ Mamba Wamba – having tipped her on more than one occasion – but this could finally be the day that she puts it all together.