WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Glen Robin||16/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 03/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:05 03/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
After coming to the conclusion of a good month of July, I am hoping that I can buck the trend of slow starts to months that I have been getting in the two previous months of doing these selections. It was a disappointing Galway and Goodwood to finish off the month, and I’m hoping that was just a momentary blip in what has been an overall good ride so far. Roscommon is on the agenda this evening, with them hosting a competitive seven race jumps meeting. There is a decent balance between quality and competition, with some tricky handicaps to get stuck into alongside some maidens.
The first port of call for myself is the 5.05 race, which is a maiden hurdle over 2m4f. I would presume by now that you would understand that I like these types of races, both in Ireland and England, as betting heats. The reason being you can still get a workable price for a horse who only has to beat a couple of horses home to win. In essence, not many of these will have the ability to win this race, and therefore it already narrows it down completely. I wouldn’t be a massive fan of horses who have failed to get the job done and tend to come second a lot, but in this race this evening – it has to be Favori Logique’s race to lose.
Despite running with credit on multiple occasions, this gelding has yet to get his infront where it matters in his 15 starts so far under rules, but has been in the frame 5 times. He quite clearly brings the best form to the table and his second last time out at Downpatrick to the once useful, Grangeclare Native, can be seen as good form in the context of this race. He has an official rating of 104, which leaves him well ahead on the figures, and this is as good an opportunity as he will ever receive to get the job done in maiden company. He is a general price of 2/1, which I believe to be fair given the standard of the race, and I’ll be begging that he can finally get his head in front when it counts.
The 5.40 race is the only other race on the card that I’m going to tackle, and I will be looking at two contenders in this extremely trappy handicap for horses rated between 80-109. Despite a few non-runners already declared this morning, there are still 17 going to post, given that all the reserves take their chance – which I hope they will. There are two that I give chances to in this race and given the open nature of the race, I have decided to put the two up together.
Starting off with Definiteadare, who is one of the big improvers of this field and still might have more to come off a mark of 100. Having been a no show in maiden hurdles, he was very well backed on handicap debut at Clonmel, when just being touched off in a pulsating finish. He went on to finish one better at Limerick the next time out, before two solid seconds again after his mark had gone up. He shapes like there might well be more to come from this horse, and unusually for a horse running at this level, he is keeping his form remarkably well throughout the summer. The trip of 2m7f on decent ground should suit this horse down to the ground, and I would be hopeful of a big run. At a price of 9/1 with William Hill for 5 places, I’ll be backing each way.
The other horse that has come into the mix in this race is Glen Robin, who quite fortuitously has snuck into this race as the third reserve. This horse has also been very progressive this summer, having not shown too much in maiden hurdles and his first handicap hurdle last term. He sprung to life when a runaway winner of a handicap at Limerick under Bryan Cooper. He backed up just four days later to escape a hike in the weights, which would be unusual for his trainer, and he finished a gallant second when being pipped by a length. He was then given a small break before a handy effort when mid-division at Kilbeggan. He looked outpaced that day over 2m4f and this step up in trip looks sure to help. At a price of 16/1 with Labrokes for 5 places, I am keen to take an each way chance.