Royal Ascot Tuesday

Tuesday 14th June – Royal Ascot Day One

Apologies for the lack of action over the last few months – summer months are always busier, and unfortunately it means I will only have time/resource to get cracking on some of the bigger meetings.

They don’t come much bigger than Royal Ascot, and with the weather set fair, assuming the watering cans aren’t enlisted too much, then we have a good level playing field without too many unknown variables.

One such unknown variable is the potential bias on the straight course at Ascot, so keep an eye out for the GoingStick readings when they are published on Tuesday morning.

However, this won’t have any effect on the outcome of the Queen Anne Stakes at 2.30, as wherever favourite Baaeed races over the 1m trip, he should be too good.

But the market outside him has a slightly wonky look to it I think, as I would have the 66/1 in places and outsider of the whole field, Sir Busker, hot on the heels of second favourite Real World.

So, it makes sense to back Sir Busker at 12/1 each-way for 2 places with Skybet in their ‘market without Baaeed,’ in the hope that the Ascot factor can bring him much closer to Real World on their Newbury run, where Sir Busker was inconvenienced by a steadily increasing pace which favoured prominent racers, and he was on the wrong part of the track, nearer the stands side.

Sir Busker loves the place, and was 3rd in the race last year, and can at least fill that position again, if not one better behind the superstar Baaeed.

I’m happy to admit defeat with the Coventry Stakes at 3.05, but definitely not with the King’s Stand Stakes at 3.40, which is about as intriguing a renewal of this famous race as I can recall.

The bookmakers see it between the two long-distance raiders, but both the US-trained Golden Pal and the Australian native Nature Strip, have shown their best form around a bend, on a sharp track, and when allowed to dominate.

The track at Ascot couldn’t be further removed from those set of conditions, or the likely pace scenario here, but what they will have on their side is fast ground.

Either way, I’d be quite happy to open this up to some potentially overpriced outsiders, and chief among them is the 4-year-old filly Mooneista, whose only taste of Ascot was when finishing sixth in last year’s Commonwealth Cup. But she ran way above her finishing position that day, given the pace she showed and where she raced on the track.

At 12/1 each-way with Bet365 for 4 places, I’d be amazed if a well-run race at Ascot on fast ground doesn’t see her produce a career best.

Next up in the trio of King’s Stand Stakes bets is last year’s runner-up Arecibo, who caught the eye in the unfavoured group in Haydock’s Temple Stakes last time out, and gives us an option from the low drawn horses.

There is pace all over the track, and much will depend on what the middle-to-high-drawn overseas trio of Golden Pal, Nature Strip and Ponntos do, but there also pace angles drawn low, so the winner could come from anywhere!

The final stab at the King’s Stand Stakes is the 100/1 rag Saint Lawrence, who despite being sired by a Group 1-winning 10f horse, looks all speed to me.

It is fascinating that the genius Roger Varian puts a pair of blinkers on for his biggest assignment to date, and he is very closely matched with Twilight Calls, who both caught the eye when drawn away from the main action in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket.

Twilight Calls is a best priced 8/1, and Saint Lawrence is 100/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365 and Unibet for 4 places each-way. Saint Lawrence could absolutely relish this particular test, and is ripe for a career best also.

The St James’s Palace Stakes at 4.20 features another short-priced favourite, in the shape of 2,000 Guineas winner Coroebus, who could easily improve again. I wouldn’t be in a rush to take him on, but if I was going to, it would be with Irish 2,000 Guineas runner-up New Energy, who gave Native Trail a real race that day. At 40/1 and 50/1 in places outright, he is extraordinarily overpriced, and I would suggest a few quid each-way.

But the main recommendation is to back New Energy at 14/1 each-way for 3 places in Bet365’s or Boylesports’ ‘market without Coroebus.’

Next up is the jumps trainers’ benefit, the Ascot Stakes at 5.00. Messrs Mullins and Elliott have the two market leaders, Bring On The Night and Pied Piper, who both could be too classy in the latter stages, but wouldn’t convince as cast-iron stayers. Certainly so, if those got fruity early enough to make it a real test of stamina.

If it did, then Dan Skelton’s Proschema at 14/1 each-way for 6 places with Bet365 could be the answer. Never raced beyond 2m on the flat, Proschema could just be the horse who is most suited to this test, as he has a lovely mix of an ability to travel well, but also dig deep when it comes to stamina reserves.

The final bet of a pulsating first day comes in the Wolferton Stakes at 5.40, and I would definitely have last year’s winner Juan Elcano as a clear favourite, after his nice warm-up effort at Sandown Parl. At 7/1 with Bet365 for 5 places, he is rock-solid each-way bet material.