Saturday 30th April – 2000 Guineas day

On going through Saturday’s cards, it was one of those occasions when it felt like I had noted down way too many possible bets.

Upon further inspection, no obvious reasons not to back them were presenting themselves. So, on a busy and eclectic Saturday, I am recommending arming yourselves with these big priced selections. I’ll try and keep it brief!

First up, and it’s right that focus is on Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day, where on the evidence of yesterday’s action and the GoingStick readings, middle to far side could be the place to be.

It was subtly in evidence yesterday, but with small fields, perhaps not explored in it’s entirety. I am going to stick to the low draws there today, but if it is categorically clear that this is wrong after the early races, then at least you can amend you bets as the day develops.

First up is Summerghand at 11/1 each-way with Paddy Power for 6 places in the My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap at 1.50 – the old boy has an extraordinarily good record at Newmarket (only once out of the first 2 in 8 runs, which happened to be a Group 1), has a perfect draw in stall 1 with early pace near him, and will be fit and well after a stint out in Dubai.

Hopefully the 1.50 has continued the low to middle draw theme, and if it has proved to at least be of no hindrance to those drawn on the far side, then it will be worth backing Zarzyni at 14/1 each-way with Paddy Power for 4 places in the Palace House Stakes at 3.00.

Year on year, the margin between the top sprint handicaps and listed or Group 3 level is proved to be eminently bridgeable, and Zarzyni had no right to win his return to turf form his draw at Musselburgh two weeks ago. Again, he has what will hopefully be an advantageous draw in stall 2.

On to the big one at 3.40 – the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, and favourite Native Trail will be very hard to beat, but has been handed potentially the worst of the draw in stall 15. Consequently, I like the chances of Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power, who wouldn’t be a 100% guaranteed stayer, but certainly on the way he won the Greenham two weeks ago, he suggested he would be fine with an extra furlong.

Being wary of the clearly brilliant Native Trail, I am going to recommend backing Perfect Power at 7/1 each-way with Paddy Power for 3 places in the ‘market without Native Trail’ instead.

By the time the Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap comes around at 5.25, you will definitely be sure as to whether the low draw philosophy is one to stick with, but either way, there is a huge amount to like about the chances of Harry Three at 11/2 each-way with Paddy Power for 4 places. He was a huge eyecatcher last time over course and distance, when racing well away from the main action, and hopefully stall 1 today gives him that distinct advantage.

The Punchestown Festival signs off for another year today, and some characteristically high-quality action on show. The Dooley Insurance Group Cross Country Chase at 2.35 features many horses who have run over the banks course in either of the two races on that course earlier in the week.

The market has wildly overlooked the chances of Neverushacon at 20/1 each-way with Paddy power, as he was tanking along in the La Touche Cup on Thursday, before a small mistake well after halfway initiated his saddle slipping and he had to be pulled up.

Twice a winner over the same course and distance, Neverushacon looks to be in much better form recently than those 20/1 each-way odds suggest.

The other one to back is Super Citizen, also at 20/1 each-way with Paddy Power. He was an eyecatcher when running on into 6^th over this course back in November, and he runs over the banks in cheekpieces for the first time, an aid that has elicited a win at Leopardstown on his penultimate start.

Anibale Fly was brought down at the 3^rd in the Grand National, and duly completed a lap of the course in a fashion suggesting that he was in flying form. If you watch it back, he tagged himself on to the field and then proceeded to jump every fence with great zest!

When faced with another circuit, he sensibly pulled himself up, and as such will have plenty left in the tank to try and go two better than his 3^rd place finish in last year’s Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase at 3.10. He is 9/1 each-way with Paddy Power, for 4 places, and can outrun those odds with the forecast rain in his favour also.

The final selection of a busy day also ran in the Grand National – Romain De Senam ran very well for a long way, before his stamina gave out. Back in calmer waters over a more suitable trip in the 61 Deep Pale Ale Staffordshire Plate at 3.30 at Uttoxeter, there is no way he should be the outsider of the field and available at 12/1 each-way with Paddy Power.