Saturday 5th March – Kelso & Doncaster

All week long I have been preparing myself to take on favourite Metier in Saturday’s Bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at 3.15 at Kelso – a number of factors looked set to combine to perhaps make things tough for Harry Fry’s classy mudlover to back up his Winter Million raid with another lucrative payday.

The five-day entries were chock full of potential combatants for the lead, a strong SW headwind was forecast to blow up the deceptively stiff climb to the line, and there didn’t look to be a huge amount of rain around – hence I was getting ready to suggest two cracking each-way bets on Autumn Evening and Cormier, who would both have loved the set-up of that potential combination of factors.

However, swathes of front-runners have defected, the wind has turned around and on Thursday night, Kelso received a deluge – so all bets are off! I still think Autumn Evening and Cormier are the likely dangers to Metier, and perhaps Kelso-loving Some Reign at a big price, but Metier’s position as market leader is now justified, I feel.

The bet to be had at the Borders venue comes in the earlier Bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at 1.32, in the shape of the Nicky Richards-trained Nells Son, who at 12/1 represents a slice of each-way value with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook.

At the top of the market is Richmond Lake, who was ahead of the selection Nells Son at Haydock in the Rossington Main, won by a certain Jonbon. But an extra 2f, softer ground, and a stiffer track can see Nells Son potentially turn around the 5¼ length deficit.

The other horse at the head of the market is the Alan King-trained North Lodge, who has a verdict over Richmond Lake to his name at Aintree, and then followed up with an impressive win at Cheltenham. I would be much more wary of his chance, and for regular Paddy Power customers, you will be aware of the option of playing in markets ‘without’ various fancied horses – perhaps a small bet on Nells Son in the ‘market without North Lodge’ would be a wise move also.

But, for simplicity’s sake, backing Nells Son at 12/1 each-way with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook is the sole recommendation in the Bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at 1.32 at Kelso on Saturday.

Saturday’s supporting cards come from Newbury and Doncaster, and it is the latter where there are three further recommended selections.

In the Virgin Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, a Listed race, at 2.20 at Doncaster, there is not as much between many of these lightly raced mares, as the market would have you believe. Only two of the field didn’t finish in the first two on their most recent assignments, at varying levels.

As ever with listed races like this, official ratings play a large part in how they’re initially priced up, and I think that Fonzerelli, despite being the second lowest rated, is worth a decent each-way bet at 40/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook.

Rebecca Menzies’ rapidly improving mare Fonzerelli will relish the ground and the step up in trip. Notably, she ran the final circuit of her mares’ novice hurdle win at Newcastle a week ago, marginally quicker than the 134-rated 2m novice hurdle winner Barrichello on the same card, and only slightly slower than the winner of the well-run handicap hurdle contested by a host of mid-120’s rated horses.

Fonzerelli’s rating of 109 wasn’t touched by the handicapper after that, and is surely an anomaly, which is why we can get an enticing 40/1 each-way about her for this (admittedly) much deeper race.

Next up at Doncaster is the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase at 2.55, run over 2m, and at first glance looks very competitive also. But to my mind, Cheddleton gets a real opportunity to win again having run with significant credit on all starts this season – he will relish the ground and at 9/2 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook, he is a one of two rare win only bets on Saturday.

The other comes in the feature Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at 3.30, which is sadly a shadow of its historical self, as small fields have plagued the race for a number of years.

Connections of Mister Malarky won’t care much for this dwindling status, as they sidestepped a much hotter race at Kempton Park last weekend to pitch their horse in here, on first start for the upwardly mobile young trainer Richard Bandey.

At 4/1 with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook, Mister Malarky is also a win only recommendation as he is a bit of a boom or bust type, and if the wind operation brings him back to near his best, he is much better than all 7 of his rivals.