Saturday 7th May

Ahead of a big Saturday of racing, the number of times that indefinite amounts of rain are forecast at various venues, is uncanny. Maybe it is my need to be definitive with regards to selections and when to recommend them on these WhichBookie pages, but it is always something which seems to befuddle me every weekend!

Ascot missed a lot of the rain through Friday, and as such the prevailing conditions remain just on the fast side, as they were for the meeting on Friday. Having explained about the accuracy of GoingStick readings at Newmarket and Ascot last weekend, and the ability of them to predict where the best part of the respective straight tracks may be, it could lead us to some value betting opportunities in the big race at Ascot today – tote Victoria Cup Handicap at 4.05.

According to the GoingStick readings, the far side (low numbered stalls) is significantly quicker than the centre of the track, and we saw that play out yesterday as the jockeys gravitated to the far side in a number of the races.

Drawn in stall 3 is Dance Fever, who may be yet to win at Ascot, but has a 2^nd and a 3^rd to his name in 3 attempts at straight track handicaps at Ascot for trainer Clive Cox. The ground is a big factor for him, as he has been withdrawn on any occasion where it has softened, so the ‘good to firm’ places on the straight course will be lovely for him.

Clive Cox’s stable jockey Adam Kirby has gone with the more unexposed Aratus, and he may be a danger from stall 9, but his keen tendencies could let him down.

At 20/1 each-way with Sky Bet for a whopping 8 places, and off the back of much better effort on his third start this season at Newmarket last time, it appears as if Dance Fever has been aimed at this race.

The weather Gods have done him a favour, and it appears as if the draw Gods may have done too, so I would rate Dance Fever’s chances as much likelier than 20/1 each-way with Sky Bet for 8 places would imply.

The GoingStick reading on the stands side is not far off the level set by the far side, and with a bit of pace drawn high too, it will be worth having a bet that covers a potential stands side group also.

That bet should definitely be Alrehb at 18/1 each-way with Bet365 for 7 places. A horse who Kevin Philippart de Foy has had some success with already, since acquiring this half-brother to the two-time Ascot Group 1-winning Muharrar.

But given Alrehb had to overcome a wide draw and perhaps hit the front soon enough last time in a good race at Haydock, the big-field, good ground, strong pace scenario that the tote Victoria Cup will feature, could bring about even more improvement from Alrehb. So, he should be your second bet in the race at 18/1 each-way with Bet365 for 7 places.

Another track to race on Saturday whose straight track can have a significant bias attached is Naas, and there are  whole host of big-field sprint handicaps there today.

An amount of rain fell there yesterday on ground that was already ‘yielding’, so despite a lack of obvious detail as to how soft the ground is this morning, it is safe to assume that it will be nearing ‘soft.’

In that case, high draws are the angle to side with, and that makes Gegenpressing a lively 25/1 each-way chance with Bet365 for 6 places in the Thank You Mick Scott For 60 Years’ Service Handicap at 2.15.

Gegenpressing has run much better than his two recent form figures imply, and dropping back to 5f on soft ground will be a good mix for him. Drawn in stall 21, he could be in the perfect spot.

Two others to maybe have a small each-way swing at from high draws could be Iva Batt at a general 33/1 and also Hot Whispers at 50/1 in a few spots. But I would make no bones about the fact that if they are somewhere near the shake-up, then Gegenpressing really should be ahead of them, so he’s the sole recommended bet at 25/1 each-way.

Last but not least is a 50/1 each-way whopper! In the Peter Elvis Heavenly Birthday Mares’ Novices Chase at Warwick at 6.50, Sheila Lewis’ mare Well Briefed has a fair hill to climb on official ratings with the market principles.

But so too did she last time at Cheltenham, when a huge 36lbs out of the handicap. It didn’t stop her running a cracker in 3^rd, and the rivals she takes on today are of a similar ilk.

At 50/1 each-way with Paddy Power, Well Briefed has to be worth more than a speculative investment to prove that the Cheltenham run was no fluke.