WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Our Nancy||25/1||Each Way
|The Banger Doyle||5/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 05/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:37 05/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It wasn’t to be yesterday for the selections at Sligo, with neither mare really able to land a blow. It’s a tough track to get a read on at times as the draws and track bias seem pronounced some days and not relevant on others. That being said, we have jumps racing at Sligo to go to war with now and I will be looking forward to trying to make a stab at this card and what it entails.
Starting off with the 5.00 race, which sees two of John Ryan’s best inmates go against each other here in this rated novice hurdle. Both The Little Yank and Ferdia have had good summers to date, and it will be interesting to see which of these comes for the most support. I am quite happily siding with Ferdia out of these two, who I believe brings the better form to the party and provided a slightly below par run at Galway can be excused, should take a lot of beating in this race.
His previous three runs were excellent and progressive, having won his maiden first time out at Ballinrobe. It was always going to be interesting to see whether that was a flash in the pan or not, but his subsequent second to Enniskerry and win at Tramore was good form for the summer months. Taking that this is a step down in grade after the Galway Listed run would mean he has a decent chance, and I look forward to him running well. At a price of 3/1 with Paddy Power, I think that is a very fair price.
The next race on the card is the 2m2f handicap hurdle at 5.35 for horses rated 80-102. Attitash is favourite in this race for Willie Mullins, and you always have to respect a runner from this source, especially in this type of grade. That being said, this horse has already burnt a couple of fingers and I wouldn’t be too convinced about taking short prices about him.
Instead, I will be favouring one at a big price in the form of Our Nancy. This horse looks to be dreadfully overpriced for a horse that looks to still have a lot of improvement to come in this discipline. This time last year he won his first hurdles race at Ballinrobe and has been lightly raced since. In recent weeks, he finished a very respectable sixth back at Ballinrobe and then ran a nice race to finish mid-division in a Galway flat handicap. Those runs have earmarked her out as a potential improver in this line-up and I don’t believe that a rating of 96 is beyond her. With her price being 25/1 with Sky Bet, who are generously offering five places, I think she has a better each way chance than the price would suggest.
Following on from that is the 6.05 race, which is a staying maiden hurdle over the extended distance of 3m1f. I really like John Adams in this race, who brings a nice level of robust form to the table for a race of this nature. Having been a bit hit and miss in his earlier days, his handicap second at Kilbeggan, when just being inched out by a head was a huge step in the right direction and he backed that up with a better effort behind Bardenstown Lad at Wexford. I rate that winner quite highly and thought it was an excellent run.
John Adams seems to have a very good relationship with this rider and the tactics of going more forward from the offset have worked very well in the last few runs, and it can be a track that favors those who are handy. I reckon there are only 3 in with genuine chances in this race, and John Adams has as good a chance as any of them. Hopefully John Adams can win, at a price of 11/4 with the majority of bookmakers, and I can start sipping a Sam Adams in celebration later!
And the final selection on today’s card at Sligo comes inthe 6.35, and is the definition of a muggy each way bet, as people like to refer to it as. Arctic Warrior is a 2/9 favorite in this maiden hurdle, and despite the fact that he should be fav, he shouldn’t be as short as this for my money given he fell on his only hurdle start to date. Instead, I will be playing it safe by backing The Banger Doyle, who brought some honest form to the table in bumpers last winter. He bumped into the likes of Ballyadam, Sir Gerhard and Hollow Games in that time, and never went down without a fight.
He comes into this race at a price of 5/1 with Paddy Power, which is the even each way bet, and I don’t see there being much risk attached with a bet like this, as if he jumps in any way sound, he will be finishing in the first three. However, I do genuinely believe that he can give this favourite a fright, which is crucial when placing an each way bet, you have to believe they can win. I think The Banger Doyle can, and I am hoping he might well do so.