WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Ally Cay||22/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 04/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:39 04/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It was a solid start to the month yesterday at Roscommon with a winner and a place from two selections, which is always a comforting way to start a week/month – especially given it was on the back of a hard week at Galway. Sligo is now the centre of attention for the next couple of days as they first have a flat card this afternoon, before a jumps card tomorrow. I will be a little bit more interested in tomorrow’s card as a rule, but today sees some competitive handicaps, which can always lead to betting opportunities.
The first selection of the day comes in the 2.17 race, which is the featured Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap over 1m2f. This looks a typically competitive renewal of this race and it is good to see a race such as this getting well backed with a decent pot for the winner. The favourite, So I Told You, brings the best form to the table and is the most progressive out of all these fillies. She has won 3 of her last 4 starts, and her run over in a huge Royal Ascot handicap was respectable. All of this being said, she has not shot up the ratings and is off a mark of 95. Despite her winning off this mark in a rated race last time out, this is back into handicap waters and it will be interesting to see whether top weight could well find her out in this race.
Instead, I’ll be siding with a mare who has close form tied in with the favourite, who is Hamley for the combination of Peter Fahey and Dylan Browne McMonagle, who takes a useful three pounds off her back. Right at the start of the year, Hamley ran against So I Told You over this exact C&D, and finished second by a half length. That showed up that the ability is still there for this mare, and also that she acts on this track well. She has dropped a few pounds since that effort, which So I Told You has risen up just over a stone in the weights. If this is a going day for Hamley, she should be bang there in the finish. Some of her form since that bright start to the season has been hit and miss, but this should be a good opportunity to bounce back and she is adequately drawn in stall 8. At a price of 14/1 with the majority of bookmakers for 3 places, she is worth an each way bet.
The second selection comes in the concluding 4.37 race at Sligo, which is a handicap over 1m4f. You might remember that a few weeks ago I put up a mare called Ally Cay, who I believed was coming back to a very competitive mark and should be taken seriously. She was declared a non-runner that day, and she now returns here today off a mark of 60, which is the lowest she has been for a long time. She is not the most trustworthy or straightforward mare as she has to be played late and off the pace, but if things dropped her way – she would have more than enough of a chance to make an impact in this.
Having won for this yard on her stable debut in June last year, she put in a rock solid summer of consistent efforts, which kept seeing her inch up the handicap on regular intervals. After a series of quiet runs, including two this season, she is now back down to a good mark of 60, and returns to an ease in grade here. Taking all of this into account, the 22/1 available with Bet365 for 3 places seems too big, and I’ll be taking a chunk at that each way.