Tipperary – Thursday 19th May

It has been another few days since the last daily article and although there was no success on the flat a few nights ago, there is hopefully going to be a bit more luck tackling the jumps card at Tipperary this evening, which is usually more so what I enjoy looking through. This all hurdles card doesn’t look to have too many major betting opportunities, so I have scoured closely to try and find potential chances, and some of them have ended up being quite obvious. 

The first of which is the 5.20 race, which is the 4 year old maiden hurdle and I am a big fan of Evenwood Sonofagun in this, for the shrewd connections of Richard O’Brien, who was a very promising second last time out at Cork and should improve again on this second start for connections. He was very well backed that day, which would have indicated a big run was expected, and he delivered on that – and he is now dropping back into a maiden on this occasion. As much as there are unexposed horses in here that would have a chance, this horse clearly sets the form standard based on that and should be respected to go very close. The market has not missed him though, and at a price of 6/4 with Ladbrokes, he can only be backed to win. 

The 6.55 race is a hard race to come to a conclusion in as this 2m4f handicap hurdle does slightly hinge on whether the first reserve, and current market leader, Golf Marin gets into the race. He would have to have a big chance if he did, given his recent runs have been full of promise – but he is a short price and obviously might not run given the current circumstances. The horse at the completely opposite end of the weights and that will definitely have a big say in proceedings is Drumbear, for a John McConnell team who are in red-hot form. This horse was very impressive in his two wins this season and although disappointing at Down Royal in between, he could well be underestimated off a mark of 122. He is top weight in this race and will have it against him to lug a big weight around, but he may well have the requisite class to get away with it. At a price of 4/1 with Bet365, with 5 places available, he should be backed each way. 

The 7.55 race is the last race I will be calling into on the evening at Tipperary and I am hoping a horse can get his career back on the right track after an uncharacteristic blip last time out, which was not in character. That horse is Nathaniel’s Dream, who has been a model of consistency in all of his other handicap starts recently, including when only just denied at Navan, or when he had finished in the frame on his two other starts. It was just never a going day last time out at Cork, and I am hopeful one can just put a line through that effort and work away on his previous form. If returning to anything like that, he would have to have a big chance each way. At a price of 15/2 with Paddy Power, who are offering 5 places, he should be backed each way.