WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Tune the Chello||11/4||Win
Date of Tips: 15/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:44 15/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
There was nothing that caught my eye enough to be backing yesterday and given the way the results panned out, I was glad that I had given the action a wide berth. Sometimes, I can be too forceful about putting selections out, and sometimes you can take great satisfaction and reward for identifying a tough day – and not tempting yourself into a bet. Today is another tough day but there are two races between Tramore and Dundalk that have taken my fancy, and you will be receiving three selections from these races.
I’m going to tackle the Dundalk action first, and even though it wouldn’t be my usual first port of call for a winner, it’s hard not to be interested in the 4.25 race today, which is a fascinating 1m2f handicap and sees a lot of Dundalk regulars come to the party. The favourite is Safecracker, for Johnny Murtagh and Goldolphin and this horse shapes like a potential improver on handicap debut. After a solid second behind Interpretation at the Curragh (form well franked) – he ran away with a Dundalk maiden. He is rated 86 on handicap debut which is enticing, but at a price of 9/4, and against today’s opposition – I can’t think that there’s much juice in that price.
Instead, I’ll be hoping that proven quality can outshine improvers in this race, and will be siding with two right at the top of the weights. The first selection is Tartlette, who I have put up a few times already on this page, to varying degrees of success. She returns to her favourite track here and over her optimum distance of 10 furlongs. Taking into account some of her Dundalk form from this winter, she would have to have a massive chance in this race off a mark of 96. Given the fact there looks to be pace on in this race, she should be able to smuggle her way into contention under Seamie Heffernan, who has a brilliant record on her and go very close. In this case, I will be taking the standout price of 14/1 with Bet365, who only offer the 3 places, but the much better price, and back her each way.
The other horse to consider in this contest is Bowerman, who surely has a big day in him with this handicap marking continuing to fall at an alarming rate. After I put him up for the big mile handicap at Galway, when running well until being badly hampered, he has been dropped another 2 pounds by the assessor. He now returns to Dundalk, a track where he is 3 from 3 at, and is back up in distance, which should suit these days. There has been some early morning money around for him, which I wouldn’t read too much into, but probably shows that he has a better chance than his opening price last night would have suggested. At a best price of 17/2 with Paddy Power, who offer 4 places, I’ll also be backing each way.
The other selection comes from Tramore, and in the 4.35 contest, which is a handicap chase over 2m6f. I am not going to overly complicate this race as I believe the market leader, Tune the Chello, has the best chance in this race to come out on top. After a promising second on chase bow to stablemate, Gin On Lime, she backed that up by beating Reine Fee in a beginners last time out. That form will be put to the test at Tramore around 35 minutes earlier with that rival running in another beginners race, and the outcome of that race could influence the price on this mare. She has been given an opening mark of 116, which seems more than reasonable with Jordan Gainford taking 5 pounds off her back, and she could be a cut above her rivals here. At a best price of 11/4 with Bet365 – I hope she gets the job done.