WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Fortune Street||16/1||Each Way
|Buttons and Bows||25/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 12/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:52 12/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
The old phrase goes that good things come to those who wait, and I can assure you, we have had to wait in recent weeks. However, we finally had a great day last night at Gowran Park with all three selections running huge races and delivering us some very tidy profits in the interim. It started off with Solene Lilyette, who defied a decent market drift on the day, out to an SP of 10/1, but ran well above herself to take the Listed feature race out on the card. Nebo followed up around an hour later at 14/1 from the front under a masterfully timed Leigh Roche ride. Palace Rock was left to try and complete the treble, and even though he was unable to, he ran a huge race in defeat to come second, and cap off a fine day.
However, Irish Racing doesn’t allow one to rest on their laurels, and we have fascinating action from both codes this evening from Leopardstown and Tramore.
Starting off with Tramore, and the first race I’ll be looking at is the 7.15 race, which is a 2m4f rated novice hurdle and has attracted a decent field. The market is led by Quirt Evans, which is probably on merit after that horse won at the track last time out. Miss Tempo also looks like she would have a very good chance in this race, after a good maiden win last time and will be looking to take this step up in progression in stride. Both these horses are 10/3 in the market, which are both fair if you were a fan of either of them.
However, I am a loyal man and I have been waiting for Fortune Street to return to this sort of event before putting him up again, as I reckon that today is near his optimum conditions. The form figures of his last few runs don’t look too appetising and hence the juicy each way price we are receiving today. After a failed foray into the chasing game, he ran a below par race in a competitive Galway handicap hurdle. That was a concerning performance as he never raised a gallop and was beaten a long way from home.
This race on the other hand should suit him a lot better, and comes here as one of the class acts in a race of this nature. Richie Deegan takes the ride, who has been riding a fair bit for Paul Nolan this summer, and on this horse’s peak RPRs, including his third at the Punchestown Festival, he could run a huge race. At a price of 16/1 with SkyBet for 3 places, I think he is a fair each way price.
The other selection that comes from Tramore is in the 8.15 race, which is a Lady Riders maiden on the flat over 2 miles. This is a hard race to assess at times, as you have to bare in mind many factors, as the majority of these are jumps horses on the flat, the standard of jockeys is slightly indifferent and it’s a very tight and undulating course for such a big field with the max amount going to post.
With all that taken into account, I think the price of 25/1 on Buttons and Bows looks too big, given this horse has already got some decent flat form to his name. In fact, she came third in this exact race a few seasons ago under this rider, Aine O’Connor. She is an excellent rider for these types of races, and it’s interesting that she picks up this mount. Buttons and Bows has been largely out of form recently, but that has been over fences, where she has failed to convince and her exploits on the flat and over hurdles have been much better. Sometimes it’s worth taking a risk at a price, and with Buttons and Bows 25/1 with SkyBet, who offer 3 places, I’ll be backing her each way.
Considering my two selections from Tramore are big prices, I don’t feel as guilty for putting up a short priced horse at Leopardstown, in one of their feature races, the Vinnie Roe Stakes at 7.00. I can’t see past Interpretation in this race, who looks to be on a steep upward trajectory and will be having his St Leger credentials tested today up in class. His win last time out over 1m5f at Leopardstown (a furlong shorter than today) was very visually impressive, turning away a well regarded Joseph O’Brien horse in the process. That looked very straightforward and he has a likeable way of going about things, with his head bowed in determination. One would assume that Ryan Moore will go for similar tactics this time around, and be very handy and look to dictate matters from the front. If he is allowed to, he could well not be stopped. At a best price of 5/4 with SkyBet, I hope he gets the job done.