1.50 Newbury - Friday
Horse Racing analyst Will Smith has had a good look at all this weekend's ante-post markets, and provides a 7/1 EW selection in the Grade 2 novices' chase at Newbury on Friday.
|I Like To Move It||9/19/1||EW 4 places 1/4
Unibet Greatwood Hurdle - Cheltenham - Sun 13 Nov
|Place BetPlace Bet|
Date of Tips: 07/11/2022
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (19:08 07/11/2022) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Cheltenham’s three-day November meeting looms into view at the end of this week, and as ever the main two betting heats of the weekend are the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday.
The first mentioned looks like an incredibly open renewal at the five-day entry confirmation stage, however the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at 2.55 at Cheltenham on Sunday is set to perhaps not be as high quality an edition as it sometimes can be.
Granted, there are a few unexposed novices or second season novice hurdlers who could have a bit of improvement in them in a big field, well-run race scenario, after pottering around in small field novice hurdles. Gin Coco, Playful Saint and Teddy Blue fit these criteria.
Sonigino will do for many, as he represents the all-conquering champion trainer Paul Nicholls, and has hosed up in two slowly run Chepstow handicaps, but this will be a different scenario all together.
Dad’s Lad won impressively over fences at Cheltenham’s October meeting, but was beaten over hurdles at Listowel the time before, and for all that he looks well treated off a lower handicap mark over timber, that might be for a reason.
Without doubt, the most fascinating horse is Thousand Tears for 2020’s winning handler/owner combination of Emmet Mullins/Paul Byrne, and there’s no doubt that he will improve for the stable switch, and he does have a remarkably similar profile to that of The Shunter, before he won this race in 2020. But do you want to back him now at a best price of 11/2, when you may well get something similar on the day with enhanced places?
To my eye, the one to back now is the winner of last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trial at the same Sunday meeting, I Like To Move It, who is 9/1 each-way with Ladbrokes or Coral.
I Like To Move It ran a much slower overall time in comparison to last year’s Greatwood winner West Cork, but his was a three-runner race where he set his own fractions and raced on what would have been a significantly slower part of the track for most of his race, compared to West Cork, who hugged the favoured outside in the Greatwood Hurdle.
What was noticeable was the pleasing noteworthy comparison between the closing sectionals of both races, suggesting I Like To Move It compared favourably when winning that race, and it was a similar story when winning the Masterson Holdings Hurdle at Cheltenham’s October meeting.
This all set I Like To Move It up for a belting run in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, where he did much the best of those that raced prominently, to nearly rally and run down eventual winner Glory And Fortune.
You can forgive him the County Hurdle flop, as he simply went too quick with others on the lead, and on the stiffer New course, which wouldn’t suit at all.
Back on the Old course, and with another summer’s improvement forthcoming, Nigel Twiston-Davies will have I Like To Move It 100% ready for this valuable prize, and it’s worth noting the horse is 5 wins from 6 starts in all career runs in October, November or December.
The only loss came in the Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot, an unsuitable right-handed track, and anyhow, he wasn’t beaten far that day behind the likes of Jonbon, Colonel Mustard and Knappers Hill.
I Like To Move It is simply much too big at 9/1 each-way with Ladbrokes or Coral to give Nigel Twiston-Davies his second Greatwood, since the likable Khyber Kim landed it for him in 2009.