WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an each-way selection for the 2.15 at Naas on Sunday 17th October.
|More Wine Lily||6/1||Each Way
|Ed The Red||7/1||Each Way
|Clan Jock||25/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 30/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:10 30/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Today marks the final month of September and barring a major miracle, it will unfortunately be our first month of loss on this channel since I have joined. We are still in profit overall and will hopefully have more of an idea moving into the jumps action this winter. For the final day of the month, I have a few darts from around the grounds to throw – so let’s hope we can finish on a positive note.
Starting with Warwick and their 1.30 race, which is a maiden hurdle over 2m5f. In this contest, I will be looking for improvement on his second time hurdling from San Fermin, who has shown glimpses of quality so far in his career. Having been second to Doctor Ken on his bumper debut, he was picked up by current connections and immediately won his bumper on first try for Olly Murphy. It wasn’t quite as smooth on hurdling debut, as he flattened a few flights and looked outpaced over 2 miles at Stratford. The longer trip today will suit and might also allow him to get into a better rhythm jumping his obstacles. At a best price of 7/2 with Bet365, he should go close.
The following 2.00 race is the feature race on the card at Warwick and this 2m Novice Handicap has a few horses that should take decent rank in novice races this year. Preference for me is with Any News, who may well be one of the most exciting prospects in the Neil Mulholland yard. This horse ran in some decent novice hurdles last year and given he should respect fences that bit more, should be more than competitive off a mark of 140 in this grade. At a best price of 5/2, he should be backed.
Moving onto the jumps action from Clonmel, which hosts a very competitive seven race card and none more so than the 2.15, which is a 2m handicap hurdle for horses rated 80-95. I like the chances of one of the top weights in this contest, More Wine Lily, who runs off a mark of 95 – despite showing some considerable promise in maiden hurdles last winter. She finished a close second at this track last year, when registering an RPR of 107, and will be happy to see the ground softening. I think she is in a good position to strike on handicap debut, and at a price of 6/1 with Bet365, who offer 4 places, she should be backed each way.
The 3.25 is a 2m maiden hurdle and sees a typically big field of 18 go to post for this early season maiden. I am hoping that it might be third time lucky over hurdles for Ed The Red, who was slightly disappointing last time out after a very encouraging debut over obstacles. I am hoping that was just an off day and he certainly looks like one with more scope for improvement in a line up such as this, with plenty already exposed. Ed The Red could do with tidying up his jumping, but if he manages to do so – he could well be involved in the business end. At a best price of 7/1 with Paddy Power, he is an each way bet.
We complete the day by heading to Bellewstown for a few selections later on in their card, with the middle distance races calling my name more so than the sprint handicaps. The feature conditions race at 4.15 over 1m4f looks a tasty affair and I’m hoping to collect a bit of money lost so far this season on Cycladic – who deservedly got her head in front over this course and distance last time out. She had previously finished second to some smart types and not from a lack of trying either. There are some unexposed types in here, but given the stable form – she should take a bit of beating with that win now under her belt. I’ll be backing her at 11/4.
The 4.50 race is the 1m4f handicap and this first division sees the interesting Tony Martin runner, Firstman, take his chance after going close at Dundalk last time out. Tony Martin hasn’t had as good a season as he would have hoped this year, but this horse looks like his turn might be near and this sort of contest promises to suit quite well. Off an unchanged mark of 57, which is five pounds lower than his last turf run, he should have a great chance from a good position in stall 5. At a price of 8/1 with Ladbrokes, with four places available, he should be backed each way.
And the final selection for the month comes in the lucky last at Bellewstown – which is the 5.20 race and is the second division of the 1m4f handicap. I am going to take a wild swing on Clan Jock in this race, who is a big price but if repeating his form from Sligo earlier this year, he wouldn’t be without a chance. His only run over this trip this year was at Sligo, when finishing a close third and he has been well beaten subsequently over shorter trips. He steps back up in trip today with Dean Curran taking a few pounds off his back, and could well have more of a chance than his price would suggest. Backing him at 25/1 with William Hill, for 5 places, looks the shrewdest option.