WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
Date of Tips: 19/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:14 19/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
York was fascinating today with some brilliant action on the knavesmire causing great excitement for those lucky enough to be in attendance, and also for those of us watching from afar. However, what today may have provided with entertainment, it baffled with punting pointers. It has made me sceptical about the rest of this week, and as York can often be a hard place to back winners – it might just temper my enthusiasm a touch. I feel it’s almost sacrilegious to be dabbling in cards away from a major festival at York, but I have personally found a few more betting opportunities at Killarney.
However, to start off I do have one selection from York – who I hope can run a big race in the 4.45 race, which is a listed contest over 1m4f. Amma Grace is the favourite in this for Dermot Weld and Oisin Murphy but on form figures alone, I didn’t have this one down as a robust favourite by any means. Her 4th in the Give Thanks Stakes was a step in the right direction, but other than the fact that Weld’s don’t usually travel over, I wouldn’t be overly sure on this filly’s chances. Instead, I will be taking a punt on the progressive, Pennymoor, who couldn’t have done it any easier last time out at Kempton. That was a poor enough contest that she was entitled to win, but she put in a performance which befitted them coming to this contest next time up. She looks to be firmly on the upgrade and I would be surprised if she didn’t turn out to be up to this level in the future. At a price of 7/1 with Coral I’ll be backing her each way for 4 places.
Now it’s time for action at Killarney, which looks like a really good card for a Thursday and should have some excellent betting opportunities for punters of all sorts of prices. Starting off with the 5.10, which I will be looking to enact some Galway revenge in this rated race. Baseman was one of my strongest fancies of the Galway week, and he has his chance to redeem himself this time out, when facing off against his Galway conqueror on more favourable terms. He is a steadily improving horse and with a rating of 95 in this race, he is quite well suited by the race weights and conditions. If he takes another step forward today, he should be getting the job done. Generally at a price of 11/4, I will be backing him.
The 5.45 race, which is the 1m featured Ruby Stakes looks a great contest to sit back and watch. It sees the return of the exciting, Masen, who was only seen three times last year for Ger Lyons and was always very well regarded. He looks short enough for this reappearance though and he will have to be seen to best effect to have any sort of chance. Instead, there is a horse who could well be horribly overpriced given his efforts against Masen last year, and it’s Charterhouse, for a team who usually do so well at this venue. Charterhouse has been up and down this year, but his tough attitude in winning at Naas combined with some handy efforts in listed races don’t leave him without a chance in this if at his best. It’s the price that’s the tempting part, and at 22/1 with SkyBet, who pay 4 places – I’ll be taking that chance each way.
Next up is the 7.15 race, which is a 1m6f premier handicap and sees some of the regulars in these sorts of events make their presence felt against each other once again. Perhaps it’s heart over head, but I can’t quite figure out how Presto hasn’t managed to land one of these contests yet and I still feel like that big handicap victory is just around the corner for him. Having ran big in a few nice races at The Curragh last year, his effort at Leopardstown on reappearance was excellent when finishing third. This slight step down in trip might suit this horse, who can sometimes be a little bit soft in the finish – but quite crucially, Shane Foley has remained loyal and now knows the horse inside and out. At a tempting price of 8/1 with Coral, who again offer 4 places when most others are only offering 3, he is a good each way bet.