Horse Racing analyst Will Smith has had a good look at all this weekend's ante-post markets, and provides a 7/1 EW selection in the Grade 2 novices' chase at Newbury on Friday.
Date published: November 28, 2023
Four-time World Cup winners Germany take on Japan in the Group E lunchtime KO on Wednesday 23rd November at 1pm.
Spain and Costa Rica join these two in Group E which makes this a huge game for Japan who will be eager to cause an upset by picking up points against one of the tournaments favourites.
Germany had a relatively disappointing Euro 2020 campaign where they scraped out of Group F thanks to a late goal from Leon Goretzka to take a point away from their final group match against Hungary to finish in second place with four points. They were knocked out of the competition by England in the next round, conceding a total of seven goals across the four games played.
Despite Germany’s poor Euro 2020 performances and the fact that they failed to progress past the group stages of the 2018 World Cup, losing to both Mexico and South Korea, it seems people haven’t lost faith just yet as Hansi Flick’s side were as short as 8/1 with some bookies to win this year’s tournament before drifting to best odds of 12/1 in recent days.
Many believe Hansi Flick is the man to turn things around with the German national side after it has gone through four years of mismanagement which has resulted in their FIFA ranking dropping from 1st in 2018 to 12th in 2022. The former Bayern Munich is a master strategist but whether or not he can get his team organised to the level that they once were in time for this year’s World Cup is yet to be determined.
Japan appeared at their first World Cup finals in 1998 and have qualified for every one since. They’ve reached the Round of 16 in three of their six tournaments but will do extremely well to achieve that this time around.
Being drawn into a group along with Germany and Spain wouldn’t have best pleased the Japan side and they are 10/3 outsiders to make it out of the group with with the two favourites being heavily odds on.
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Date of Tips: 23/11/2022
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:00 23/11/2022) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Germany are 8/15 for the win which isn’t surprising and I think that price is just good enough for a single and would make a reasonable addition to an ACCA today.
I’d be reluctant to back Germany too heavily in the early stages of the competition and would much rather see how they play against Japan before considering a bet against Spain on the following Sunday.
This isn’t a huge betting game for me but I do think that Germany will pick up three points.
I’d be willing to place a relatively small wager on Germany 2-1. I can’t see Japan troubling Hansi Flick’s side too much but they may have a goal in them and Germany have been prone to conceding the odds one or two.
This isn’t a betting market for me on this game. Although Germany conceded in every one of their six Nations League matches in recent months, I wouldn’t be fully confident in backing BTTS – Yes at 4/5.
Germany have a number of capable goalscorers with Gnabry, Gundogan and Timo Werner all bagging five during qualifying for the tournament. The latter of the three would stand out the most to me but Werner has sadly been ruled out of the World Cup due to injury. Therefore, Gnabry at 11/2 or Gundogan at 10/1 look to be the best bets.
Germany / Germany would be my selection in the HT/FT market. I think they’ll start relatively strong and I expect they have a good chance of heading into the tunnel at half time with the lead before seeing the match out as winners.
Neither of the two sides pick up a huge number of cards in games and so my bet would be on Under 3.5 cards.
The lineups for Germany vs Japan will be published closer to kick-off.
Germany starting lineup:
Neuer; Schlotterbeck, Sule, Rudiger, Raum; Kimmich, Gundogan; Muller, Musiala, Gnabry; Havertz
Japan starting lineup:
Gonda; Sakai, Itakura, Yoshida, Nagatomo; Tanaka, Endo, Kamada; Ito, Kubo, Maeda
Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (Barcelona), Kevin Trapp (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Defenders: Matthias Ginter (Freiburg), Antonio Ruediger (Real Madrid), Niklas Suele (Borussia Dortmund), Nico Schlotterbeck (Borussia Dortmund), Thilo Kehrer (West Ham United), David Raum (RB Leipzig), Lukas Klostermann, Armel Bella Kotchap (Southampton), Christian Guenter (Freiburg)
Midfielders: Ilkay Gundogan (Manchester City), Jonas Hofmann (Borussia Monchengladbach), Leon Goretzka, Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Mueller (all Bayern Munich), Julian Brandt (Borussia Dortmund), Mario Goetze (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Strikers: Kai Havertz (Chelsea), Youssoufa Moukoko (Borussia Dortmund), Niklas Fuellkrug (Werder Bremen), Karim Adeyemi Borussia Dortmund)
Goalkeepers: Eiji Kawashima (Strasbourg), Daniel Schmidt (Sint Truiden), Shuichi Gonda (Shimizu S-Pulse)
Defenders: Hiroki Sakai (Urawa Red Diamonds), Miki Yamane (Kawasaki Frontale), Ko Itakura (Borussia Monchengladbach), Takehiro Tomiyasu (Arsenal), Maya Yoshida (Schalke 04), Shogo Taniguchi (Kawasaki Frontale), Hiroki Ito (VfB Stuttgart), Yuto Nagatomo (FC Tokyo)
Midfielders: Junya Ito (Stade de Reims), Ritsu Doan (SC Freiburg), Wataru Endo (VfB Stuttgart), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting), Ao Tanaka (Fortuna Dusseldorf), Daichi Kamada (Eintracht Frankfurt), Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), Takumi Minamino (AS Monaco), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton & Hove Albion), Gaku Shibasaki (Leganes), Yuki Soma (Nagoya Grampus)
Forwards: Takuma Asano (Vfl Bochum), Daizen Maeda (Celtic), Ayase Ueda (Cercle Brugge), Shuto Machino (Shonan Bellmare)
Horse Racing analyst Will Smith has had a good look at all this weekend's ante-post markets, and provides a 7/1 EW selection in the Grade 2 novices' chase at Newbury on Friday.
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