League One Predictions, Betting Tips & Odds 2023/24 Season

The new football season is fast approaching and now is the time to look at the ante post markets available on the top English leagues.

We’ve already shared our 2023/24 Championship predictions and so onto League One where 24 teams will battle it out for promotion into the English second tier.

Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday made their way out of League One and into the Championship last season and swapped places with Reading, Blackpool and Wigan.

Morecambe, Accrington Stanley, MK Dons and Forest Green dropped down into League Two with their replacements being Leyton Orient, Stevenage, Northampton and Carlisle.

When Does The League One Season Begin?

The new 2023/24 League One season gets underway on Saturday 5th August with a full round of fixtures featuring all 24 teams kicking off at 3pm.

League One Winner Prediction

Before revealing my prediction for the winner of League One this season, here’s who the bookies have tipped as favourites:

• Derby (9/2)
• Bolton (15/2)
• Portsmouth (10/1)
• Barnsley (11/1)
• Peterborough (12/1)
• Blackpool (16/1)
• Reading (16/1)
• Charlton (18/1)

It’s no surprise to see Derby as the bookie’s favourites to clinch the League One title. Financial issues & club administration resulted in a transfer embargo being applied but since that was lifted last year, the club has made several noteworthy signings. Players such as Kane Wilson from Bristol City, Curtis Nelson from Blackpool, along with others, should help keep the Rams in contention for the title under the management of Paul Warne. They missed out on a shot at the playoffs after suffering a 1-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on the final day of the season and will be eager to not leave it so late this time around.

Derby are the obvious choice for the title but they should have some competition still. Bolton and Barnsley could challenge after both fell at the last hurdle in the playoffs last term, and Blackpool, who will be eager for a swift return to the Championship could put up a fight.

However, Derby is the somewhat safer bet. If you are looking for more attractive odds, you may wish to look at the ‘to be promoted’ market which I’ll cover next.

League One Winner Prediction 2023/24
Derby County	9/2

League One Promotion Prediction

Onto the ‘To Be Promoted’ market where there are several teams that could potentially finish in the top 6 and be in with a chance of achieving promotion via the playoffs.

Here are some of the main contenders for promotion from League One:

• Derby (13/8)
• Bolton (5/2)
• Portsmouth (16/5)
• Barnsley (7/2)
• Peterborough (4/1)
• Blackpool (9/2)
• Charlton (5/1)
• Oxford (11/2)
• Reading (11/2)
• Wycombe (15/2)
• Lincoln (10/1)
• Bristol Rovers (10/1)

As you can see, there’s not much in it between the top 10 or so sides, but some are a lot more likely to challenge than others in my opinion.

Other than Derby, who I’ve tipped to win the league, I feel Bolton and Blackpool have a good chance of promotion. From those two, I’d definitely side with Bolton given Blackpool’s dismal defensive record in the Championship last season. They’ll likely improve on that in this lower league but Bolton hold more appeal to me. Blackpool have also had a huge clear out with around a dozen players leaving and although fresh faces have been brought it, there’s no guarantee that they’ll gel right away.

Dan Nlundulu returning to Bolton from Southampton should help the Trotters up front and Josh Dacres-Cogley is a welcome addition from Tranmere Rovers.

Along with Bolton to be promoted, I also fancy Peterborough to be in the mix come the end of the season. They should perhaps already be playing Championship football after leading Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 after the first leg of their playoff tie, but a 5-1 defeat in the second leg lead to the Owls winning on penalties and leaving Peterborough to remain in League One for at least one more season.

League One Promotion Prediction 2023/24
Bolton	5/2
Peterborough	4/1

League One Relegation Prediction

Four teams will suffer the fate of dropping down into League Two next season with the bookies favouring the following:

• Fleetwood (11/8)
• Cheltenham (6/4)
• Carlisle (13/8)
• Northampton (2/1)
• Wigan (9/4)
• Cambridge (9/4)
• Stevenage (11/4)
• Leyton Orient (3/1)
• Shrewsbury (3/1)
• Exeter (7/2)
• Reading (7/2)
• Port Vale (10/3)
• Burton (9/2)

Cheltenham Town secured promotion into League One by finishing top of League Two in the 2020/21 season but they could be in for a struggle to make it three consecutive terms in the English third tier.

Centre-forward Alfie May played a crucial role in keeping Cheltenham up last season, scoring 20 league goals in 39 appearances. May has since moved on to Charlton and with several other players departing, including Charlie Raglan, Ryan Broom, and Ryan Jackson, along with uninspiring replacements being brought in, Cheltenham could find it hard to stay afloat this time around.

Along with Cheltenham, my second pick for relegation from League One is Carlisle United.

After nine seasons in League Two, Carlisle finally secured promotion after finishing 5th and beating Stockport on penalties in the playoff final. It was a huge achievement for the club after they narrowly escaped relegation the season prior and a dream come true for Paul Simpson who will get to manage his boyhood club in League One.

League One will be a big step up for the Blues and losing their centre-forward Kristian Dennis to Tranmere won’t help matters at all.

League One Relegation Prediction 2023/24
Cheltenham Town	6/4
Carlisle United	13/8

League One Top Scorer Prediction

There are several contenders in League One for the top goalscorer award and many of them have some appealing odds.

My first choice for top scorer comes from Bolton’s squad and is forward Dion Charles who can be backed at 12/1.

The 27-year-old, who also represents the Northern Ireland national team, joined Bolton Wanderers in January 2022 and has proved to be a key player for Ian Evatt’s side. He found the net 16 times in 42 league appearances last season for Bolton but I expect him to improve on that this term with Bolton expected to push hard for promotion.

My second pick, and somewhat more of an outsider, is Bristol Rovers’ John Marquis who is priced at 50/1.

Bristol Rovers finished 17th in League One last season but I expect them to finish a lot higher up the table this year. They’ve brought in forward Jevani Brown, who should help create more chances this coming season, which in turn, could lead to more goals from Marquis.

31-year-old Marquis may not be the first choice of many punters in this market but he did score 9 goals in the 18 starts he was given last season which is a very respectable tally. Injuries did play a part in his lack of minutes on the pitch but if he can stay fit and feature more this season than last, he could be an outsider pick with value, especially at odds as big as 50/1.

The 50/1 best price is with Betfred who are offering five places on EW bets which I think is definitely worth a small punt in this market.

League One Top Scorer Prediction 2023/24
Dion Charles	12/1
John Marquis EW (5 Places)	50/1