Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin

Fight Preview

The thrilling trilogy between Mexican superstar Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (57-2-2, 39KO) and Kazakh KO King Gennadiy Golovkin (42-1-1, 39KO) reaches its finale this weekend in Las Vegas.

Currently the score is 1-0 to Canelo, with their first fight declared a draw, but in the eyes of many boxing fans, it’s one apiece as ‘Triple G’ certainly won the first fight in 2017.

‘GGG’ outlanded Canelo in 10 of the 12 rounds, yet the judges in Las Vegas that night still wouldn’t award him the win. He was also the busier fighter in the rematch too, which Canelo won by mixed decision.

Golovkin has landed more punches on Canelo than any other opponent, yet his record disappointingly displays a draw and defeat.

In the first fight, the CompuBox stats show Golovkin was the busier boxer throwing almost 200 more punches than Canelo and landing 49 more.

But the rematch was far closer. Golovkin still outthrew and outlanded Canelo – 879 thrown, 234 landed compared to Canelo’s 622 thrown and 202 landed. However, it was the eye-catching power punches of which Canelo threw and landed more on Golovkin that gave him the edge – 143/366 to 116/332.

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These two have detonated their biggest bombs on each other, but both have stood firm under the power. During round nine of their first match, Canelo landed the biggest right hand that spun Golovkin’s head round, but he didn’t move even a single inch backwards. In fact, he came forward and it was Canelo moving back as he watched his rival closely for any sign of weakness, but found none. The Kazakh killer has even discussed that punch in an interview stating it wasn’t hard and felt like more of a slap.

In the rematch, Golovkin landed a flush right hand on Canelo in round 10, but he also didn’t take a step back.

‘Triple G’s’ last fight against Ryota Murata in Japan earlier this year saw him pushed back in the first few rounds and hit cleanly several times. Trainer Johnathon Banks instructed Golovkin to change the rhythm, and from the fourth onwards, he managed to turn it into his fight for the first time. From round five, ‘GGG’ took over until the end in round nine, but it was a worrying start from the 40-year-old who looked like Father Time may have finally caught up with him.

Canelo, too, had a tough time in his last fight. The Mexican was beaten convincingly by Dmitry Bivol. Trained by Eddy Reynoso, he didn’t manage to land much all fight, around 84 punches in total over the 12 rounds, which Bivol managed to almost double.

Canelo simply came up against a formidable opponent and ran out of ideas. Perhaps it was an off-night because his punches didn’t seem to have their usual torque or snap to them.

Fight Prediction

In this trilogy fight, I expect to see the same trend as the previous two bouts. Both boxers will stand toe to toe and exchange equally for the entire 12-round duration.

In fight one, Golovkin was busiest and should have been given the victory; then in fight two, the contest was closer; so, in fight three, I expect Canelo to again improve to claim the win clearer this time.

Canelo said he is going to finish Golovkin’s career with a knockout, which Bet365 have at odds of 6/4. I personally see Canelo winning by unanimous decision, with no controversy this time. Coral have Canelo 11/10 to win by decision with Golovkin the underdog at 7/1.

However, with these two so evenly-matched, 20/1 for a draw at Coral could also be worth a punt.

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