Dustin Poirier v Dan Hooker Betting Tips – UFC Fight Night

The UFC has been one of the leading lights in getting live sport back on our TVs. And this weekend UFC Fight Night returns in time for the last domestic event before they head off for Fight Island in a few weeks time. 

For the Fight Night main event we have a genuinely intriguing and high class fight. The classy former champion Dustin Poirier takes on Australia’s up-and-coming Dan Hooker in a fight that could easily have adorned UFC 251’s card.

When this fight was first announced I immediately thought ‘hmm, a nice close fight this one’. And sometimes as  a punter first impressions of a race or fight or match actually hold a lot of weight. But those first impressions have to be weighed against the stats and facts surrounding the fight. A lot of those stats can be seen in the chart above.

First thing to notice is both fighters have a similar knockout percentage. Poirier has KO’d or TKO’d 52% of his fights, Hooker 50%. That tells us they’re both good with their hands and have the ability to stop a fight. Delving deeper the striking stats is revealing. Dustin Poirier lands on average 5.59 significant strikes per min to Dan Hooker’s 4.35, which equates to over five more significant strikes per round difference which will take its toll. The difference is even more striking when you see the stats for how many significant strikes per minute they absorb, Hooker absorbs 5.13 significant strikes per minute to Poirier’s 3.69. In essence Hooker over his UFC career has fought in a deficit meaning he’s absorbed more significant strikes in his career than he’s dished out. Poirier’s career is in surplus, he absorbs far less than he gives out. Which over the course of a fight is significant. Poirier has great footwork when the fight is standing up and can evade punches well, Hooker’s is not so good which leads to him taking more punishment than he should and what his fight record would suggest.

Then we get on to Grappling Accuracy, Poirier is at 41% accuracy to Hooker’s 38%. But the telling stat as far as grappling is concerned is that Poirier averages 1.75 takedowns per 5 minutes in the cage to Hooker’s 0.47. That’s a stark difference. 

So combining the stats gives Poirier a distinct edge and that’s before we look at the calibre of fighter each guy has been taking on.

Poirier’s last five fights:

• Lost – Khabib
• Won – Holloway
• Won – Alvarez
• Won – Gaethje
• Won – Pettis

Hooker’s last five fights:

• Won – Felder
• Won – Iaquinta
• Won – Vick
• Lost – Barboza
• Won – Burns

Now ignoring the actual results of the fights, just compare the names. Poirier’s list reads like a who’s who of UFC fighters, it’s an epic list and bar the Khabib fight a great run of results. And in all fairness he coped with Khabib better than most fighters who have fought The Eagle. Those fighters I would suggest are a level above Hooker’s last five opponents. Yes, Hooker beat Gilbert Burns who has taken his performances to the next level and fights Usman for the title at UFC 251, but the likes of Felder, Iaquinta and Vick are definitely a level below Holloway, Alvarez and Gaethje.

BUT, I’m always wary of fighters coming off a huge loss. And Poirier will have been crushed by losing to Khabib. Poirier has been there and done it and sometimes I think, especially in the UFC, that fighters lose the hunger for the game quite quickly after being brought down to earth with such a bump. So despite Poirier being significantly ahead on the stats and level of opponents I’m being very cautious when it comes to having a bet.

So how do we best profit from this fight? Well I like Poirier given the stats and my figures give him a 59% chance of winning the fight which equates to a decimal price of 1.69 which is just over 4-6 fractional price. But the best price about him is currently the 10-21 at Bet365 which equates to 1.47 decimal odds, which isn’t value according to my prices. The bet I’m going for is the fight to last UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS which is available at 21-20 (2.05) with Unibet. Both guys finish a big percentage of their fights and I think Poirier will be able to hit Hooker quite a bit in the first two rounds which I think will lead to the fight being stopped in under 2.5 rounds. Hooker might get a shock at the skill difference and step up in grade, and this could quite easily lead to him rushing and panicking. Let’s not forget this cage is quite a bit smaller than the usual main event cage we’ve seen over the years and that should mean we see a lot more action and that favours Poirier and a quicker finish too. Under 2.5 rounds means we need the fight to end before 2 mins 30 seconds of round 3. As regards stake I’m being quite cautious and will be having just a small bet.

Advised Bet

UNDER 2.5 Rounds @ 21/20 Unibet

This UFC betting tip was provided by sports analyst Richard Stoddart.