Wales vs England

Wales and England meet in their final fixture of the 2022 World Cup group stages on Tuesday 29th November and what a match this could be.

Rob Page’s Wales would like nothing more to qualify for the knockout stages of their first World Cup since 1958 but close to that must be beating local rivals England on the big stage.

They don’t have the best of records against the Three Lions having lost all of their last five meetings in major competitions and only managing to score one goal in the process.

Wales did manage to give England a scare when they met in the group stages of Euro 2016 which is a game I remember very well. None other than Gareth Bale put Wales ahead just before half time from a stunning free kick after Wayne Rooney brought down Robson-Kanu 35 yards from goal. It was a moment to remember for Bale and Wales and also one to forget for goalkeeper Joe Hart who got his hands to the ball but was unable to keep it out of the net. However, second-half goals from substitutes Jamie Vardy and Daniel Sturridge won England the match in the dying seconds of the game.

Wales’ chances of qualifying for the knockout stages of the tournament are slim. First, they need to beat England which is at least something that is in their control. However, they also need Iran and USA to draw. Anything other than that outcome would see Rob Page’s side exit the competition at the group stage.

England currently sit top of the group but missed out on automatic qualification for the last 16 by failing to beat USA on Friday evening. However, that point may prove to be crucial for the Three Lions as just a draw tonight would see them through. The only scenario where England would be knocked out tonight is if Wales manage to beat Southgate’s side by four goals or more and with Iran or Wales win their match. It’s an unlikely scenario but England will want to finish top of their group to avoid a clash with what will be Netherlands should they beat Qatar this afternoon. That would see a Round of 16 tie against either Ecuador or Senegal depending on the outcome of their game today.

This may very well be a very nervy match for England and the pressure will be on them more so than their opponents. No doubt Southgate will instruct his players to retain possession as much as possible which may pay off if they get the first goal but should they go behind, his tactics will need to change.

England are 1/2 for the win, which when you look at the result of past meetings, is probably fair. However, with what is essentially a derby match, some may be slightly cautious about backing England at that price. Especially after their uninspiring performance against USA towards the end of last week.

However, my money is on England to pick up the 3 points that they need to finish top of the group.

It’ll be interesting to see if Southgate does what he rarely does and rotate his squad in a bid to keep some key players fresh for the next round. In my opinion, that wouldn’t be unwelcomed by England fans who may wish to see the likes of Marcus Rashford, Callum Wilson, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish get a start. Those players have produced a spark in the side when they have come on in recent games and they could get England off to a good start in the game if they get a pitch time from the whistle.

On paper, this should be England’s easiest game of the group stage. However, emotions will be high this evening at the Ahmad bin Ali Stadium and it’s possible Wales could give England a real game.

However, I have faith that England will improve on their performance against USA and I have doubts as to whether Wales will produce the quality that the Americans showed against England on Friday.

England 2-0 is my pick from the correct score market which is priced at 6/1.

Given what is at stake, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Wales get on the scoresheet tonight. Therefore, this isn’t a betting market I’d be having a wager on.

Although Wales need to win this match to stand a chance of progressing, should they go behind early, heads may drop and I’d side with BTTS – No if I was having a bet.

I’d wait until the teamsheet is announced before backing a first scorer as it is possible Southgate could make some changes to the starting XI that lined up against USA.

Should he start, Mason Mount would be my pick to get on the scoresheet this evening. The Chelsea midfielder is 10/1 to bag the first goal or 9/2 to score anytime with the latter being my preferred choice.

There are some nice boosts available on scorer bets such as Harry Maguire to score a header at 20/1 (was 14/1) or Harry Kane to score a header at 7/1 (was 5/1), both from SkyBet.

This isn’t a market I’d be having a bet on tonight. There are several options that I can look at and think have a chance of occurring.

• England / England @ 11/8
• Draw / England @ 13/4
• Wales / England @ 25/1

England/England would be my choice but I’m not prepared to put my money where my mouth is on this occasion.

When two rival nations go head to head there is always the potential for players to get booked. Instead of backing certain players, I’m siding with Wales to receive the most cards.

If England maintain possession, Wales will more than likely be the ones fouling which makes this the logical bet and odds of Evens look great to me.

Wales expected starting lineup:
Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Roberts, Ramsey, Ampadu, Williams; James, Moore, Bale

England expected starting lineup:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Rice, Henderson; Sterling, Mount, Foden; Kane