Over / Under Goals Strategy & Tips

The ‘Over / Under Goals’ market in football betting is one of the most popular markets to bet on. The outcome of your bet doesn’t rely on the match result but just solely on the number of goals scored.

In this article, we’ll be taking a look at what Over / Under Goals is and the best Over / Under Goals strategy to help you maximise the chances of you bets coming in.

What does ‘Over / Under Goals’ mean?

Over / Under Goals is very simple but may seem slightly confusing if you’ve never come across it before, mainly due to there being what seem like ‘half a goal’ markets.

With the vast majority of bookmakers, such as Paddy Power and Betfair, you can bet on Over / Under Goals. Essentially, you are betting on whether there will be more than or less than a certain number of goals.

The most popular Over / Under Goals market to bet on is 2.5 goals but you can also bet on a number of others.

We have explained what some of these markets means below.

Under 0.5 Goals: You are betting on there being ZERO goals scored

Over 0.5 Goals: You are betting on there being 1 or more goal scored

Under 1.5 Goals: You are betting on there being less than 2 goals scored

Over 1.5 Goals: You are betting on there being 2 or more goals scored

Under 2.5 Goals: You are betting on there being less than 3 goals scored

Over 2.5 Goals: You are betting on there being 3 or more goals scored

Under 3.5 Goals: You are betting on there being less than 4 goals scored

Over 3.5 Goals: You are betting on there being 4 or more goals scored

…and so on.

Why bet on the ‘Over / Under Goals’ market?

The Over / Under Goals market appeals to many for various reasons. The first, which we mentioned above, is that you’re not relying on either team winning the match. Your bet can come in whichever team wins or if the match ends in a draw. All that matters are the number of goals scored in the match by both teams. They can also be an exciting bet if you are streaming live football or watching the game live.

Secondly, your bet will stand a chance of coming in right until the final whistle if you bet on an ‘Over’ market as it’s not uncommon for 2+ goals to be scored late on in a football match. Similarly, your ‘Over’ bet could have already won within the first few minutes.

Also, betting on the ‘Over / Under’ market is a chance for punters to do their research and place an informed bet rather than just which team will win the match. There are various statistics which you can use to select a football match to place an Over ‘ Under bet. Some of which we will be looking at below.

Over / Under Goals Strategy – Selecting Matches

A mentioned, there are various stats you can use to select a match for your Over / Under Goals bet rather than picking games at random.

Below, we have listed some Over / Under Goals Tips which may help increase your chances of winning.

Individual Team Results

Look at the previous results of each team and see if they have scored many goals in those matches. The last 5 – 10 games should give you an idea of their goal-scoring capabilities and whether or not they are a sensible choice for an Over / Under bet.

For example, the results of Arsenal’s last 5 Premier League matches at the time of writing this article were:

  • Arsenal v Everton (H): 3:2
  • Arsenal v Newcastle (H): 4-0
  • Burnley v Arsenal (A): 0-0
  • Chelsea v Arsenal (A): 2:2
  • Arsenal v Sheffield United (H): 1:1

3 of Arsenal’s last 5 matches ended in Over 2.5 Goals (3 or more goals scored). Also, 2 of their last 3 home matches ended in Over 2.5 Goals.

This makes Arsenal a potentially a good choice for an Over 2.5 Goals bet. However, there are more factors to take into consideration, especially the team in which they are playing. Should they be playing a team which has a similar record of high-scoring games, then this would look like a good bet. However, if they were playing a team which consistently and effectively ‘parks the bus’, you may wish to reconsider your bet and look elsewhere.

Look at multiple leagues

The majority of UK punters select football bets for matches taking place in leagues such as the Premier League and the Championship. However, other leagues in the Uk and around the world may be a better option for your Over / Under bets.

In 2017 a survey was conducted which showed that the Premier League averaged the lowest number of goals in Europe’s top leagues with 2.57 goals per game. Serie A scored the most goals, averaging 2.92 goals per game, La Liga 2.74 goals per game and the Bundesliga 2.6 goals per game. There are also leagues such as the Australian A-League which are renowned for high scoring games as are some of the UK’s lower-leagues.

However, although the Premier League may not have produced the most goals per game on average during this season, it doesn’t mean that Premier League matches are not a good bet. For example, throughout this season, the top six in the league accounted for almost 50% of the leagues’ goals. Therefore, it’s vital that you assess the teams which are playing each other as well as the league in which they are playing.

Analysing Previous Results

So, you’ve found a match in which two teams are playing each other where they both have a strong record of Over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.

Great! Get your bet on!

Wait! Not just yet.

This is a good start but you should also take a look at why these teams past results have resulted in so many goals. We’ll be splitting this section up into a few categories.

Game Circumstances

Let’s say that two teams of similar quality and scoring capabilities are playing each other in the second leg of an FA Cup match with the first leg ending 4-0 to ‘Team A’.

Usually, this may be quite an even game but Team B knows that they must score goals to be in with a chance of progressing to the next round and so it’s likely that they will go all-out attack in the second leg. Therefore, this could result in a number of goals.

Tactics & Style of Play

Some teams play very defensively as they see it as their best chance of taking away points from a game whereas others have many quality attacking players and will try to win the match by simply scoring more than the other team however many that may be. Games featuring attacking teams often result in more goals which should be a factor to take into consideration when placing your Over / Under bets.

Similarly, different managers have different styles of play. Some prefer to park the bus whereas others prefer to go for it and attack. This season, Manchester City and Liverpool have been scoring for fun as they have a number of attacking players which are capable of scoring against any opponents. This has resulted in many of their games ending in Over 2.5 goals.

Recent Squad & Managerial Changes

When selecting your matches, it’s important to be up to date with team news. Let’s say that many of Tottenham’s recent matches have ended in Over 2.5 goals and that Harry Kane has scored 70% of Tottenham’s goals this season. If Kane was injured in the last game and won’t be playing this week is their game a good bet for Over 2.5 goals? You will need to consider which player will be replacing him and whether or not they are as capable of scoring as many goals.

This can also be applied to the back line. Should one or more defenders or the goalkeeper get injured or be sold, how much of an impact will this have on the team conceding goals?

Changes in managers can also have an effect on results. A new manager may wish to play more defensively and so we’d expect less goals, or maybe a manager with a poor history has been replaced with a better one in which case we may expect more goals.

Over / Under Goals Strategy Summary

Here is a quick recap on what you should be looking at when selecting matches for your Over / Under bets.

  1. Check previous results of both teams
  2. Research multiple leagues and the teams within
  3. Keep up to date on squad & managerial changes
  4. Research expected lineups and tactics
  5. Look at the Head to Head record of both teams

Which Bookie is best for Over / Under betting?

The vast majority of bookies will provide Over / under betting markets and so selecting the best bookmaker for your bets comes down to:

  1. Which bookies are offering the best odds?
  2. Which bookies have betting offers available?

In our opinion, Bet365 are one of the best bookies for Over / Under bets. They offer extremely competitive odds which are often greater than with other popular bookies which can result in bigger returns on winning bets.

Also, Bet365 offer new customers up to £100 in Bet Credits when registering and placing their first bet which is way above the average value of a welcome offer.

Over / Under Goals Accumulators

A popular option amongst punters is to use Over / Under Goals bets in an accumulator. When placing a ‘Match Result’ Acca, your bet can be all but over if one team goes a few goals down but with Over / Under markets, your Acca can have a chance of coming in right until the final whistle.

To place an Over / Under accumulator bet, simply add the selections to your bet slip as you would with a standard match result accumulator and enter your total stake for your bet. Over / Under accumulators can have huge odds depending on the number of selections and are favoured by many over other Accas.

Summary

Over / Under bets can be great fun, especially when they come in. It is possible to increase your chances of winning Over / Under bets by researching the various factors we have highlighted in the article which is why these type of bets are so popular with punters.

If you are looking for a bookmaker to place your Over /Under bets, we recommend Bet365. Click on the button below to register an account today and claim up to £100 in Bet Credits.

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Which Bookies Do Spread Betting?

If you are interested in spread betting then your options are more limited than if you wish to place fixed-odds sports bets with a bookmaker.