League One Ante-Post Tips 2022/23

League One is a ruthless league that is by no means easy to progress from. However, having said that, teams which have been recently relegated from the Championship do have a good record in the third-tier. MK Dons, Sheff Wed and Rotherham all finished last season in the top four after dropping down from the Championship, albeit only with the latter of the three making it out.

Looking at the main ante-post markets, I’ll be sharing my predictions for the League One winner, those to be relegated, top scorers and more. You can also read my World Cup Tips and predictions for all other major leagues across Europe.

League One Winner Prediction

For the past seven consecutive seasons, at least one team that has been relegated from the Championship has gone on to be promoted from League One. With that in mind, Derby, Barnsley and Peterborough should have every chance of finishing at least near the top of the league.

Sheffield Wednesday, who finished fourth last season and seven points adrift of league winners Wigan, are currently the bookies favourites at 9/2. Next up is Ipswich at 5/1, followed by Derby (7/1), Peterborough (10/1) and Bolton (14/1). Recently relegated Barnsley are a best price of 16/1 and eighth favourites.

League One is an unpredictable league with anyone of a handful of teams capable of winning in most seasons. The bookies pre-season favourites have only finished top of the table in 2 of the last 27 seasons which should tempt you to look further down the pecking order. Along with that, several teams who were once part of the top-flight have struggled to claw their way out of League One with Sunderland successful only on the fourth attempt, Sheffield United taking six seasons to progress and others such as Portsmouth, Ipswich and Charlton all still battling.

It makes sense to firmly consider the trio that dropped from the Championship last term and from those, Derby seem like the most likely to stand out.

Following nine months in administration, Derby County’s takeover by local property developer David Clowes was confirmed at the beginning of July. It’s great news for the club and fans who should see a much more positive season ahead compared to last.

Derby have an excellent squad and without their 21 point deduction last season, they would have finished 17th in the league and remained a Championship club. They conceded just 53 goals last term which other than Stoke, is the best defensive record in the bottom 14 teams and 2 goals less than 6th-place Luton conceded.

Wayne Rooney has departed ways with the club since their demotion but that leaves a great opportunity for interim manager Liam Rosenior to impress the new owners. Rosenior knows the players and the club after joining in 2019 first as a first team coach to Phillip Cocu and then as assistant manager in January of 2021 when Rooney was appointed.

Derby should be up there come the end of the season and odds of 7/1 are more than fair in my opinion. If you’re in a more cautious mood, you can back them E/W at 1/4 odds which will pay out on the first three places.

Prediction:

• Derby @ 7/1 with Bet365

Bet365

New Customer Offer

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet365 Sign Up Offer

Claim Offer

Open Account Offer. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. Registration Required #ad

Top 6 Finish Prediction

Given how competitive League One is, you can get some great odds on a top 6 finish. Derby for example are Evens with Irish bookmaker Quinnbet but I’ll also be looking at other teams since I’ve already tipped them for the league title.

Sheffield Wednesday finished last season extremely strongly with only MK Dons picking up more points in the second half of the season. They’re a rather short 4/7 for a top-6 finish and so I’d rather side with the Dons at odds of 8/5. Liam Manning’s side finished just a point from automatic promotion after an impressive end to their season. If they can start how they left off then 8/5 is an attractive price to finish in the top half dozen.

Prediction:

• Derby @ 1/1 with Quinnbet
• MK Dons @ 8/5 with Betfair Sportsbook

Relegation Prediction

Similar to the title race, it’s likely that several teams will be caught up in the League One relegation battle this season and currently, there are 12 that are priced at 5/1 or under to make the drop into League Two.

Morecambe, who finished 19th last season are the bookies’ relegation favourites priced at just over evens followed by 2/1 candidates, Exeter who are new to the league and Fleetwood who avoided relegation only on goal difference last term.

However, my selection comes from slightly further down the list and is the bookies’ 10th favourite for the drop, Burton.

Burton finished last season in what initially looks like a respectable 16th position in League One. However, the 53 points that they collected would have seen Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink’s side just 6 points clear of relegation the season prior and just 3 points above the drop zone in both the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons.

Since being demoted from the Championship four seasons ago, Burton have finished 9th, 12th, 16th and 16th again most recently. They had a terrible end to last season having won 2 of their last 14 matches and failing to find the net in 6 of their last 8.

The owners have proved reluctant to spend in this transfer window despite the squad lacking in several areas. Players have been brought in but only on free transfers and loans which doesn’t give you much confidence in their season ahead. Centre-forward Daniel Jebbison was their top scorer last season but his tally of just 7 goals doesn’t impress.

This could be the season that Burton Albion struggle the most and I expect them to be in the mix of it towards the bottom of the table come the end of the season. This bet is advised with 10bet who often have good odds on football.

Prediction:

• Burton Albion @ 7/2 with 10Bet

Betfred

New Customer Offer

Bet £10 Get £40

Betfred Sign Up Offer

Claim Offer

New 18+ UK customers only. Register using the promo code WELCOME40, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets and £10 in Free Spins (50x20p) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply. #ad

Top Scorer Prediction

Wigan’s Will Keane was last season’s top goal scorer in League One, netting 26 times throughout the campaign. He was followed by Sunderland’s Ross Stewart with 24 goals. Both of those sides were promoted and so it makes sense to look towards the leagues favourites for a player to take home the Golden Boot award.

The first of my two selections is Sheffield Wednesday’s Michael Smith who bagged himself a very respectable 19 league goals last season to help his side to a fourth-placed finish and a spot in the playoffs. Sheff Wed were the fourth highest scorers in League One in 2021/22 and the the second highest scorers on home turf. They’re the bookies’ favourites for the title this year and if they are to achieve that Smith should play a big part.

My other selection is a Bolton player who joined the club in January of this year. Dion Charles found the net 8 times in 23 league appearances for the Trotters since signing and should be more settled in this coming season. He’s been in great form pre-season bagging three goals against Longridge and has proved himself as a capable goal scorer in League One, netting 19 times for Accrington Stanley in the 2020/21 season.

Prediction:

• Michael Smith Each Way @ 12/1 with Bet365
• Dion Charles Each Way @ 20/1 with Bet365

LiveScore Bet

New Customer Offer

Bet £10 Get £20

LiveScore Bet Sign Up Offer

Claim Offer

*New members. Sportsbook only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. Click here for full T&Cs. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+ #ad