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Premier League Ante-Post Tips 2022/23

Friday 5th August 20:00

WhichBookie football expert Liam Johnson provides a preview for the upcoming 2022/23 Premier League season along with sharing his ante-post bets for various markets.

Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Liverpool 16/516/5 Ante Post
League Winner
Each Way
Place BetPlace Bet
Chelsea 13/1713/17 Ante Post
Top 4 Finish
Place BetPlace Bet
Nottingham Forest 10/110/1 Ante Post
Top Half Finish
Place BetPlace Bet
Nottingham Forest 5/65/6 To Stay Up Place BetPlace Bet
Bournemouth 8/138/13 Ante Post
To Be Relegated
Place BetPlace Bet
Southampton 3/13/1 Ante Post
To Be Relegated
Place BetPlace Bet
Raheem Sterling 33/133/1 Ante Post
Top Scorer
Each Way
Place BetPlace Bet

Date of Tips: 26/07/2022

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (12:51 26/07/2022) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Premier League Ante-Post Tips
Premier League WinnerTop Half Finish
Top 4 FinishTo Be Relegated
Top 6 FinishTop Scorer

The 2022/23 season is almost upon us and so it’s about time to start looking at some ante-post markets to see if we can find any value in our season-long bets.

I had great success with my pre-season bets last year, backing City to win the title @ 4/5, Norwich to be relegated @ Evens and Son Heung-min to finish as the leagues top scorer at a big price of 40/1. I’ll be looking at all of those markets today for the season ahead and hoping for similar success.

Let’s jump straight into it by looking at the potential candidates to claim the title this season.

Premier League Winner Prediction

Last season was ultimately a two-horse race between Manchester City and Liverpool and as much as the likes of Spurs and Chelsea attempt to close the gap between themselves and the top two, I can’t see them doing enough to challenge for the title in the coming season. However, it’s worth taking a look at each one individually along with the prices that are available on them to see if there is any value in backing them either as a straight win or potentially, each way.

Manchester City

It may not come as a surprise to most that Man City topped the league in 2021/22 but they left it until the final day of the season to be crowned champions. Liverpool were hot on their tails for the vast majority of the year but it was City who prevailed by just a single point after finding the net no less than three times in five minutes against Villa in their final game to come back from 2-0 down and collect a vital three points.

That victory made it four title wins in the last five seasons for City, showing how Pep and his side are dominating the league. They’re the bookies’ favourites for the title for the seventh consecutive season and are priced at an extremely short 4/6 with Unibet. Although not many will argue against the fact that City are the most likely to finish the season top of the table, 4/6 for a season-long bet is a very short price and they may be better as an addition to an accumulator rather than as a single.

City’s bench would probably give most teams in the league a decent game but to ensure that they remain as the formidable force they’ve proved to be in the league in recent seasons, Pep has gone on to undoubtably strengthen his squad further in the summer transfer window.

Ex-City forward Gabriel Jesus scored just 8 goals in 28 league appearances last season which simply isn’t enough for the forward of a team that creates so many chances. You could argue that City have a number of players that are capable of producing goals and that a target man isn’t necessarily required in such as team. However, with De Bruyne bagging 15 in 25, Sterling 14 in 23 and Mahrez 11 in 15 league appearances, an average of 1 goal in just under 4 games simply isn’t good enough.

Enter Erling Haaland.

Haaland, one of the worlds most promising youngsters, signed a 5-year deal with City on 1st July which will keep the ex-Dortmund striker at the Etihad until 2027. He scored a total of 62 goals in 67 appearances for Borussia Dortmund between 2020 and 2022 and he has a similar goal average for Norway bagging 20 goals in 21 games since 2019.

City beat the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich for Haaland’s signature and although they got him on the cheap due to his buy out clause, his wages are estimated to be around £375,000-a-week which could surpass £500,000-a-week with bonuses.

There’s no doubt that Haaland is a proven goalscorer but there will be some doubt in fans minds given that he hasn’t played in the Premier league before. However, City aren’t shy of creating chances and a handful of those should fall towards the Norwegian in each game. He’s definitely one to watch this season and if he hits the ground running, he could make City unstoppable.

As well as Haaland, Pep has strengthened his squad with the signings of midfielder Kalvin Phillips from Leeds and Julian Alvarez from River Plate. Both are worthy signings and will help fill the gap left by the departures of Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Fernandinho.

Man City Title Odds: 4/6 with Unibet

Man City 2021/22 Stats
BTTS39%
Clean Sheet55%
Win to nil50%
Fail to score11%
Over 1.5 Goals76%
Over 2.5 Goals61%
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Liverpool

Next up are City’s main threats, Liverpool, who have finished within a point of their rivals in four of their last five seasons and pipped them to the title in 2019/20.

The Reds came excruciatingly close to making history last season as they chased the quadruple right up to the end. Klopp’s side managed to pick up both the FA Cup and League Cup and just City and Real Madrid stood in their way of the two prestigious titles that they craved. However, it was not to be as although Liverpool relentlessly chased City for the league title, Pep’s side showed their quality in the final game of the season and Real Madrid somehow came away with the Champions League trophy despite Klopp’s side dominating the game and having 20 more attempts on goal than their opponents.

It was a chance that may not come around again for Liverpool and it certainly will have hurt them. They’ll no doubt want to bounce back this season and challenge again for each of those four competitions but they’re up against an improved City side and will have to be at the best throughout the entire season to be in with a chance.

The Champions League final in Paris proved to be the final game in a Liverpool shirt for Sadio Mane who netted 16 goals in 32 league appearances for his club. However, Darwin Nunez has been brought in from Benfica where the Uruguay striker scored 32 goals in 57 appearances between 2020 and 2022.

Looking at the Liverpool squad and it’s hard to find positions where you would replace many players. Therefore it’s down to Klopp to keep them playing at their best throughout the season and if he does, they’ll be up there challenging with City for the title.

Liverpool are a best price of 16/5 to win the Premier League this season which is something many will find more attractive than City’s price considering how close they’ve come on many occasions.

Liverpool Title Odds: 16/5 with SportNation

Liverpool 2021/22 Stats
BTTS42%
Clean Sheet55%
Win to nil55%
Fail to score3%
Over 1.5 Goals84%
Over 2.5 Goals63%

Chelsea

Although I can’t see Chelsea picking up more points than City, they do deserve respect and perhaps some consideration given that they’re 16/1 for the title this coming season.

Chelsea started last season in excellent form and were contenders in the early stages of the campaign. However, consistency is the key to winning the Premier League and that’s what Tuchel’s side were unable to achieve. Despite conceding just 3 goals in their first 10 games of last season and losing just 3 of their first 28, they drew far too many matches mid-season which ultimately ruined their chances of a first title win in five seasons. This season could be different for them however as the unsettled Romelu Lukaku has left to re-join Inter Milan on loan and City’s Raheem Sterling has been brought in. There was also uncertainty within the club around owner Roman Abramovich with the clubs assets being frozen due to his connections in Russia. Hopefully, the players can have a fresh start this season and if Sterling settles in well, I think we could see an improved Blues side this coming season.

Chelsea made it through to the finals of both the League and FA Cup and to the quarter-finals of the Champions League. Although they finished a distant 19 points behind City in the league, I think they’ll close that gap this time around so long as they can find a bit more up front to finish matches off.

Chelsea Title Odds: 16/1 with Bet365

Chelsea 2021/22 Stats
BTTS50%
Clean Sheet42%
Win to nil39%
Fail to score11%
Over 1.5 Goals79%
Over 2.5 Goals53%

Tottenham

Spurs are actually ahead of Chelsea in terms of title odds with 14/1 available for Conte’s side to top the table come May. However, for me, they proved far too inconsistent last season, relying on just Kane and Son for goals who scored 40 of Tottenham’s 69 league goals (58%) last term.

That said, Spurs have made several signings which should help level the playing field throughout the squad and bring more consistency to the side. Richarlison from Everton and Bissouma from Brighton should help Kane and Son out and the likes of Fraser Forster from Southampton, Ivan Perisic from Inter and ex-Barcelona centre-back Clément Lenglet are all great additions to the team.

For me, it’s a little too early to back Spurs in a season-long bet and I’d rather see how the new players gel with the current squad. When Tottenham are in-form, they’re a force to be reckoned with as they proved last season by being the only side to do the double over league champions Manchester City. They’re definitely a team to watch though and if things click, they should be in the running for a top-four finish.

Tottenham Title Odds: 14/1

Tottenham 2021/22 Stats
BTTS37%
Clean Sheet42%
Win to nil37%
Fail to score26%
Over 1.5 Goals74%
Over 2.5 Goals58%

Premier League Winner Prediction

Although I don’t think I would back them at such a short price, I do think Manchester City will claim their fifth Premier League title in six years. It’s hard to see past their quality and with the addition of Haaland, it’s possible we could see a record breaking year in terms of goals scored.

That said, I think there is more value in backing Liverpool each way. They’re priced at just over 3/1 for the title and each way terms are 1/3 of the odds for the first two places. That means that you can get a little over Evens for Liverpool to finish 1st or 2nd which I think is a better bet than backing City at odds of 4/6.

Prediction: Liverpool Each Way @ 16/5 with SportNation

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Top 4 Finish Prediction

Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds 2022/23
Man City1/33bet365
Liverpool1/8bet365
Tottenham8/11spreadex
Chelsea13/17sportnation
Man Utd13/8spreadex
Arsenal2/1quinnbet
Newcastle9/110bet
West Ham14/1boylesports

The top four seem relatively clear to me and I can’t see Manchester United or Arsenal breaking into that bunch. Newcastle aren’t there yet and it may take a few seasons for Eddie Howe’s side to get up to anywhere near that level on a consistent basis, although they haven’t been far from it on a points basis since the ex-Bournemouth manager took the reigns at the club.

The team I’m most confident about other than the top two is Chelsea and although odds of 13/17 aren’t hugely appealing for a season-long bet, I do think that the price is fair and that they have a good chance of finishing in one of the top four places.

Prediction: Chelsea @ 13/17 with SportNation

Top 6 Finish Prediction

The top 6 finish market is perhaps a lot more interesting as there are a handful of clubs that could achieve that feat. Manchester United and Arsenal should be in the mix as they have been in the majority of seasons and then there’s the likes of West Ham who had some excellent spells last term, and Newcastle who have been transformed under Eddie Howe and who have a wealth of financial backing at their fingertips.

Other than those, no teams jump out at me at having an over-achieving season. At the time of writing, Leicester haven’t signed anyone and given that their 2021/22 campaign was somewhat underwhelming, I can’t see them challenging for Europe this season. Yes, they were missing big names for large parts of the season but I’m not confident in backing them without any new additions.

Newcastle have made some solid signings in the transfer window which should further strengthen their squad. However, I do think that they’re in need of a striker as Callum Wilson is injury prone and they certainly can’t rely on Chris Wood if they are looking for a top 6 finish. Should they manage to attract a forward, I think they’ll well within a chance of finishing in the top third.

I’m going to leave this market for now though and possibly return to it closer to the season’s off when transfers have concluded.

Prediction: TBC

Top Half Finish Prediction

You have to look down the pecking order to find and tasty odds for a top half finish. The likes of Newcastle are 4/11, West Ham 4/6 and even Aston Villa are odds-on. I’m determined to have a long-shot punt in my ante-post bets and one of those is going to be on newly-promoted side Nottingham Forest to finish in the top half of the table.

Only Bournemouth are longer odds than Forest from all of the teams in the league but from the promoted sides, I think they have the best chance of over-achieving.

This will be the first time since 1999 that Forest have featured in the top-flight and they’ve splashed the cash in preparation for the new season.

Some of their new additions include:

  • Taiwo Awoniyi (Union Berlin) £18.45m
  • Neco Williams (Liverpool) £18.00m
  • Moussa Niakhaté (FSV Mainz 05)  £9.00m
  • Giulian Biancone  (Troyes) £9.00m
  • Omar Richards (Bayern Munich) £7.65m
  • Lewis O’Brien (Huddersfield Town) £5.31m
  • Harry Toffolo (Huddersfield Town) £5.31m
  • Jesse Lingard (Manchester United) free transfer
  • Wayne Hennessey (Burnley) free transfer
  • Dean Henderson  (Manchester United)  loan transfer

It’s a big gamble backing them to finish top half given that it’s likely that it’ll take time for the new recruits to gel. However, if they click and hit the ground running, they should be able to hold their own in the top-flight and give the majority of teams a game.

Forest are 10/1 for a top-half finish which is my ante-post long shot prediction. They’re also 5/6 just to stay up which I think is a good bet.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest @ 10/1 with SkyBet

Relegation Prediction

As is often the case leading up to the start of a new season, the newly promoted teams are favourites for the drop.

  • Bournemouth 8/13
  • Nottingham Forest 6/5
  • Fulham 11/8

I agree that Bournemouth are the most likely to head straight back into the Championship and odds of 8/13 are probably fair. However, I’d like to take a punt on an existing Premier League club to make the drop and from the list, I think Southampton may be one side who may struggle this season.

The Saints finished five points above the drop zone last season, winning just 9 of their 38 league games and struggled for goals following the departure of Danny Ings to Aston Villa.

What worries me about Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side is their lack of squad depth which the club has attempted to resolve by bringing in the likes of goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu from Manchester City, midfielders Roméo Lavia and Joe Aribo, centre-back Armel Bella-KotchapArmel Bella-Kotchap and centre-forward Sékou Mara. All of those other than Aribo are 20 years of age or under and if they don’t gel quickly, they could find themselves in trouble.

There is a lot to improve on last season for Southampton with their performances on the road being one of them where they picked up just 3 wins from 19 played. They’re 3/1 for the drop and in my opinion, one of the more likely from the existing Premier League sides to do so.

Prediction:

Top Scorer Prediction

Last season I backed Son Heung-min to finish as the leagues top scorer @ 40/1 EW and this time around, I’m going for a player with similar odds.

I’m reluctant to back any City player given that they have so many capable of scoring goals which often means that they end up with several players netting double-figures in a season. Erling Haaland at 3/1 is way too short for me and not a bet that I’d consider.

Salah is always in the mix and has bagged the most goals in 3 of the last 5 seasons. 5/1 is most likely fair for him to make it 4 in 6 but they’re not the odds I’d be looking for given an injury can scupper your bet at any point in the season.

Last season’s joint-top scorer, Son Heung-min is a tempting 18/1 with SpreadEx but my selection is ex-Manchester City player Raheem Sterling who is priced at 33/1.

It’s unclear where Sterling will slot in at Chelsea. He could play out wide on the right with Kai Havertz as the main man in the centre and Mason Mount on the right. However, Havertz often drops back which would give Sterling the chance to nip into the centre of the box and get on the end of crosses. There’s also the possibility he could play in a number 10 role, behind Havertz like he did during his time at Liverpool and throughout the 2018 World Cup.

Wherever  he plays at Chelsea, I’m expecting Sterling to have an impressive season. It’s hard to get full recognition in a side like Manchester City and I think people will start to notice him more under Tuchel where I expect him to play a big role in the squad.

I’ll be backing Sterling at odds of 33/1 EW which pays out at 1/4 of the odds should be be one of the leagues top four scorers this season.

Prediction: Raheem Sterling Each Way @ 33/1 with Bet365

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