Grand National Tips

Grand National tips from WhichBookie racing analyst, Will Smith

After the unveiling of the weights for the 2022 Randox Grand National yesterday, there has been the inevitable scurry of activity with regards to which horses might be well handicapped, which horses might be poorly handicapped, and quotes from connections that can often be cut and pasted over and over again.

And of course, there’s Tiger Roll, and the unerring feeling that we’ve all seen something similar before!

It’s such a shame that perhaps the most extraordinary horse of our generation will be remembered for the circus that has surrounded his last few seasons, and the overriding feeling that his owners’ contrary and egotistical attitude has betrayed the horse that should have given them, and the public, the most enjoyment all along. But that’s for another day…

The 2021 renewal was a ground-breaker for sure, as Rachael Blackmore (and Henry De Bromhead and JP McManus) rode the crest of a wave that seemed to last for an eternity in those halcyon days of spring. Minella Times ran away with a race that the Irish horses dominated, as 12 of the 15 finishers were trained across the Irish Sea.

Amongst much teeth-grinding and angst-filled attempts to explain and rectify why this domination has occurred across the upper echelons of jump racing, for the here and now, we are right in the eye of an Irish dominated storm, and I don’t see that the 2022 Randox Grand National will be any different. (Neither will the 2022 Cheltenham Festival for that matter.)

It’s not hard to envisage the likes of Minella Times, the luckless 2021 third Any Second Now, Farclas, Burrows Saint and Discorama being involved again, and so too a few Irish-trained newcomers like Escaria Ten, Run Wild Fred, Mount Ida, Longhouse Poet and Noble Yeats could emerge as players.

But for me, there is one horse that is screaming out to be backed now and that is last year’s fifth Farclas. Not many 7-year-olds ever attempt the famous race, and even more rare is a 7-year-old running well in it. Farclas jumped those fences with a zest and an assurity that the likes of Vieux Lion Rouge would have been proud!

Always travelling well in the van, he gained ground at most fences, and as the likes of Minella Times, Burrows Saint and Balko Des Flos pushed on around the Melling Road, the race just got away from Jack Kennedy and Farclas. But he finished the race sufficiently well enough to be assured of his stamina for the trip, and uppermost in connections minds after a long season, would have been the longevity and association that Farclas could possibly have with the race.

At 25/1 each-way with Betfred, who offer the lovely combination of 5 places and also ‘Non-Runner, No Bet’ on the race, Farclas is the one that most takes the eye at the prices. He chased home stablemate Run Wild Fred in the Troytown Chase, and you would imagine that Gordon Elliott will give him a spin in something like the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – where an expected prominent showing would see his odds contract markedly for the big one at Aintree.

Blaklion flew the flag for the UK-trained contingent last year, and you would expect Snow Leopardess to be the flag-bearer for the underdogs this time around, and could easily be the type of story that garners much public attention.

Front-running, dashing grey mare who has already become a mother and represents hugely likable connections. She will be the public’s most popular winner for sure, and she advertised her suitability for the fences by winning the Becher Chase in hugely gutsy fashion.

Further back in fourth that day, was the Sean Curran-trained Domaine De L’Isle, who was no stronger than at the finish over 3m2f – he will stay the trip in the Grand National and more. Potentially putting those stamina credentials on show, Domaine De L’Isle has an entry in next weekend’s Eider Chase at Newcastle.

A decent run in Newcastle’s famous old race would see Domaine De L’Isle very much advertise his claims for the Randox Grand National itself, and would also help his chance of getting into the race, as at number 64 on the list, winning the Eider would jump him to the top of those horses rated the same as him.

At 66/1 each-way, again with Betfred and those lovely concessions of 5 places and ‘NRNB,’ Domaine De L’Isle would have a live chance in the race, and could easily shorten between now and the day.

His trainer Sean Curran has history with light-weighted horses in Nationals, as his Iris De Balme won an extraordinary renewal of the Scottish National in 2008 at odds of 66/1, as top weight Halcon Genelardais kept over half the field significantly out of the handicap!

Domaine De L’Isle was just a little sticky early on over the National fences in the Becher Chase, but it was noticeable how he had warmed to the task by the time they jumped the last few fences. It is hoped that he can be fluent enough and well-placed enough, (David Bass’s association suggests connections view a positive jockey as important), to obtain a necessary early prominent sit.

Much water is to flow under the bridge between now and the second Saturday in April, but taking the 25/1 each-way about Farclas and the 66/1 each-way about Domaine De L’Isle with Betfred now makes a lot of sense to me.

Grand National tips from WhichBookie racing analyst, Andrew Blair White

Cheltenham Festival week provided tonnes of thrills and spills and overall, despite it being a tough week at times for ante-post punters, we got out with our head above water. However, there is never any time to rest and although it has been hard to acclimatize back to the midweek racing, we have to keep looking forward to the next big meeting – and it is the Aintree Grand National meeting. 

The National itself looks a fascinating race, and my WhichBookie colleague Will Smith has already put forward a strong case for two selections in this race, and I could not put you off either.

However, I have to mark my own path and given the Irish dominance in the race last year – it seems remiss to be siding with anyone other than the Irish with my two long-term fancies for this race.

The two of these horses don’t come from the most recognised yards in Ireland, but both men are shrewd handlers with their best stock and none more so than the new trainer on the block, Ciaran Murphy. Since taking over from his previous boss Dot Love back last season, he has made a good start to his training career. His flag bearer has been Enjoy D’Allen – who is the horse I am siding with for the big race in Aintree, as he fits a likeable profile for an Irish runner coming into this race.

Having been trained by Peter Fahey in the earlier portion of his career, Enjoy D’Allen built up quite the reputation of being a bridesmaid a few too many times, but his switch to his current handler has set away that premise, and his runs in defeat and in victory over the last 18 months have been scintillating. He has risen from an opening handicap mark of 119 to the 148 he is currently competing off – and that has been down to two stellar efforts to finish third in last year’s Irish National, and this year’s Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown.

That brings him valuable big handicap experience and overall he is a sound jumper and strong stayer, which are both good attributes to have for a race of this nature. He has been notably bought by top owner JP McManus since his last run, and therefore one must think that he feels he has a strong chance of winning a race like this, and Ciaran Murphy has obviously been working back all season with this race in mind. He is only off a mark of 148, so he is guaranteed to get in, but not off a lofty mark – and he should be primed to run very well.

At a price of 12/1 with Bet365, who are offering 6 places each way in their ante-post market and also offering the concession of Non-Runner-No-Bet, he looks like a worthy candidate for this race and should be backed. 

The other horse that is right at the top of my shortlist for this race is a horse who ran with great credit when finishing seventh in this race last year, and that is Discorama. The Paul Nolan trained horse is no stranger to big handicaps across the water, as he has contested very bravely in three Cheltenham Festivals, alongside running in this race last year. He travels over to the UK very well and is feasibly handicapped to run very well, given that he is a pound lower than he was in this race last year, and most importantly – they have got a needed prep run into him this year.

Last season Discorama was a lurker in the betting for this race, with plenty of people hopping on the bandwagon of the Nolan National Double with Discorama and Latest Exhibition, and despite running superbly for a very long way, Discorama faded out of contention late on in the piece to finish seventh. For a race of well over 4 miles, he ran a bit too fresh for his own good and his jumping was so electric that he got into the race far too soon for his own liking. Connections put that down to the lack of a prep run that they had intended to get into him, which is something they have been able to do this year.

Over the last two years, he has not been the easiest to train and Nolan has highlighted a few times that they have had to get his wind looked at, and a few hold ups have meant he has not seen the racecourse as much as they would have liked. That being said, he showed himself to be in more than decent nick when a close second at Fairyhouse last time out, which was a solid effort and another good round of jumping.

He is not a perennial winner, so one would have to be looking into the each way market to back him, as he does find himself in the frame more than his connections would like. However, there is a price where that can be done, and the price of 40/1 with William Hill, who are Non-Runner-No-Bet and also paying out 5 places each way. You can get 6 places with Bet365, but with a shaved price – and I am siding with the juicer price on this occasion. Fingers crossed he can travel and jump as well as last year, and that the prep run has put him spot on, I’m looking forward to hopefully a big run.

For the UK-based trainers, Aintree has been like that horror movie sequel that you know you don’t want to watch, so kneel shivering behind the sofa. But every now and then, peek out from beneath your intertwined fingers to see if it is all over!

The strike rate of Irish runners to winners in the first two days at Aintree has even surpassed the Cheltenham Festival viking-like raid. Especially given the lesser numbers that have travelled, the Irish contingent are still proving comfortably a cut above.

So, despite the UK having potentially one of the most ‘well-in’ favourites ever to run in the Randox Grand National at 5.15 tomorrow, (which I think is an absurd bit of handicapping for Cloth Cap’s Kelso win), it still will surely pay to concentrate on the Irish marauders.

Having recommended Anibale Fly at a tasty 40/1 back in February, to provide a fitting culmination to his Grand National love affair, and given that we have the money in the bank from the ballot elimination of Le Breuil, we can surely have another couple of cracks at the most famous of all horse races.

Without a shadow of doubt, the main selection now has to be Minella Times – there are too many ducks lining up quacking like good’uns for it not to be. Henry De Bromhead-trained, Rachael Blackmore-ridden, JP McManus-owned and representing two of the strongest pieces of handicap chase form run anywhere this season, there is simply no way Minella Times shouldn’t be on your list of Randox Grand National fancies.

At 9/1 each-way with 888Sport, you’d be hard pushed to suggest that it is a brilliant price, but given all the looming portents, it wouldn’t be a shock if Minella Times vied for favouritism come the off time tomorrow.

Livelovelaugh bolting up in the Topham Chase on Friday is surely the final piece of the jigsaw in what could be one of the great public gambles in the race. I’m not just getting all gooey-eyed at the prospect, I assure you his form chance is there in black and white too, and I’d hate to miss this particular boat – all aboard the ‘good ship Rachael Blackmore.’

What a story if she could be the first female jockey to win the race after the amazing season she has already had!

Gigginstown House Stud and the O’Leary’s will be looking on at this week with about as mixed a bunch of feelings, as a group of angst-ridden, hormone-fuelled teenagers, given all the one-upmanship games being played out over dear little Tiger Roll.

But they might just have the last laugh, as I quietly fancy their Alpha Des Obeaux could run a massive race at very generous odds of 80/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, who are also 6 places for each-way bets at this stage.

Alpha Des Obeaux was being prepped for the race last year, like so many, and his running-on fourth in the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival suggested he was hitting form at the right time. For this inherently very classy sort, a handicap mark of 152 is not the full picture of his ability, and he has always shaped like the dourest of stayers. At 80/1, he is well worth adding to any list of Grand National picks.

However, I feel I’ll probably not be alone at about 5.25pm tomorrow, in shouting at the top of my voice…. ‘Come on Rachael!’

The following content was published on 5th February 2021

Will Smith Betting Tips – The Grand National 2021

With the entries closing earlier this week for the 2021 Randox Grand National, run in just over two months’ time, now is a great time to have a perusal of the market for the big race. 

Check out our guide to the Best Bookies for the Grand National here .

The next few clues for the famous race will be laid out over the course of the next few weeks, as connections look to finalise preparations and fulfil certain qualification criteria that now exists for the Grand National. Then, on Tuesday 16th February, the handicapper will unveil the weights structure, and many an ante-post bet will be struck then.

However, I think now could be the time to back two horses that are surely going to be aimed at the race, and indeed, it seems as if for both, their whole season could revolve around it. So why now you ask? Well, they are both due to run over next few days, and I think could well land on the radar of punters and layers aplenty.

The first has been placed 4th and 5th in the last two renewals of the race in 2018 and 2019, when having placed 3rd and 2nd in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup prior. With that record, Anibale Fly, on his day, is as classy a stayer as there is in training – and at 40/1 each-way with William Hill, or 33/1 each-way with a number of other firms who are offering five places, he has to be backed.

Tony Martin has given him an entry at Fairyhouse next Wednesday over fences, which would tick the now relevant box of having run in a race over fences this season. While a quick glance at his handicap mark over fences shows him to be on 152. That may be re-assessed upwards slightly by the handicapper a week on Tuesday, on account of his record over the niche fences, but it still represents a pale insignificance of the inherent ability level that exists within Anibale Fly.

The two seasons in which he finished in the shake-up in the Grand National, the Gold Cup had been the priority. However, for the subsequently cancelled 2020 running of the race, Anibale Fly was clearly being teed up for the Grand National itself.

Plans were obviously put on hold, but it is pleasing to see him not only entered in the 2021 Randox Grand National, but also, on account of his Fairyhouse entry, he is ready to run. Don’t expect any fireworks on Wednesday, as it clearly isn’t the day that matters.

But he will enter the conscious thoughts of many again, and so taking the wild prices each-way now, 40/1 with William Hill most notably, seems a very wise move.

The other one to back now is Le Breuil, Ben Pauling’s impressive staying chaser and winner of the most stamina-sapping renewal of the National Hunt Chase in 2019, copper-bottoming his stamina in the process.

It took Le Breuil the best part of 18 months to get over that race, but this season, three runs and a wind operation have shown himself to be back in great form. He has twice winged round the National course in the Becher Chase, and was a running on third in the Classic Chase at Warwick three weeks ago.

Le Breuil is due to run tomorrow in the Edinburgh National over 4m, and his trainer will be hoping desperately for a very bold showing, as his current handicap mark of 140 would give connections a nervous wait to see if he got in at the bottom of the weights for the Grand National. A win at Musselburgh would surely guarantee him a go at Aintree, as the bottom weights of the last 10 runnings of the Grand National have been rated: 142, 142, 143, 145, 139, 138, 131, 137, 138, 139.

At 40/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook, Le Breuil is very much of interest now, as after Saturday’s Edinburgh National, that price could be a distant memory.

Even if Le Breuil didn’t elevate his mark with a big run tomorrow, he will still surely be aimed at the National, and being balloted out would guarantee a refund on ante-post bets, so there is no panic about doing your money this far out.