Horse Racing expert Will Smith provides a 2-star ** 16/1 EW ante-post selection for Newmarket's famous Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 11th October.
Date published: October 2, 2025
Date of Tips: 02/10/2025
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:09 02/10/2025) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Derby County FC
v Southampton FC 
Pride Park Stadium
Championship Matchday 9 
04-10-2025 14:00
Derby County Form
Southampton Form
Date: 04/10/25
Kick-off time: 15:00
Venue: Pride Park Stadium
Championship football returns to Pride Park as Derby County take on Southampton. Derby are still hunting for that first home win of the season, while Southampton arrive fresh from a confidence-boosting victory at Sheffield United. Both clubs have had a patchy start, so the big question is: who turns the corner this weekend?
Derby boss John Eustace has the rare luxury of a fully fit squad. No suspensions, no injury list. That means he can call on his strongest XI — with Carlton Morris leading the line and Ben Brereton Díaz desperate to get back on the scoresheet. Matt Clarke was the saviour against Charlton last week, and he’ll anchor the backline again.
Southampton manager Will Still is in the same boat — a clean bill of health. That means Ross Stewart, who fired in twice at Bramall Lane last time out, will lead the attack. Adam Armstrong adds creativity, while Finn Azaz and Tom Fellows provide the spark just behind. The Saints have had defensive wobbles this season, but having a settled lineup could help them tighten up.
Derby County: Zetterström; Johnston, Sanderson, Clarke, Elder; Adams, Travis; Agyemang, Clark, Brereton Díaz; Morris.
Southampton: McCarthy; Edwards, Wood, Quarshie, Manning; Jander, Charles; Fellows, Azaz, Armstrong; Stewart.
Derby have been solid in possession but just aren’t ruthless enough in the final third. They average 0.8 goals per game across their last six. Southampton, on the other hand, have that little bit more quality up top and are scoring 1.3 per match.
Betting angles worth a look:
Derby’s record against Southampton isn’t great either — no wins in their last four league meetings.
Southampton will look to frustrate Derby’s midfield, then hit quickly with Armstrong and Stewart. Derby’s fans will demand energy, but unless Morris and Brereton find form, it’s hard to see them breaking through.
My call? Southampton edge it. A narrow win that keeps their unbeaten run at Pride Park alive.
Match Prediction: Southampton to win. Bet with bet365.
I’m leaning towards a tight contest. Derby don’t score much at home, while Southampton aren’t free-flowing away.
Correct Score Prediction: Derby 0-1 Southampton. Bet with bet365.
The numbers suggest a low-scoring clash. Derby games are averaging under 2 goals at home, and Southampton aren’t exactly blasting teams away on their travels.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.
Here’s a combo that fits how I see the match:
That feels like the safest blend of form and logic.
Bet Builder Tip: Southampton to win, Stewart to score, Under 3.5 goals. Bet with bet365.
Key Stats
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Southampton look stronger on paper and have better form. They’re also unbeaten at Pride Park in recent years.
A tight game is expected. A 0-1 or 1-2 Southampton win seems likely, though a 1-1 draw wouldn’t surprise.
Ross Stewart for Southampton after his brace against Sheffield United, and Ben Brereton Díaz for Derby, who’s due a big performance.
The match kicks off on Saturday, October 4, 2025, at 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium.
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Horse Racing expert Will Smith provides a 2-star ** 16/1 EW ante-post selection for Newmarket's famous Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 11th October.
Horse Racing expert Will Smith provides a 2-star ** 16/1 EW ante-post selection for Newmarket's famous Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 11th October.
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