Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe Tips – Longchamp – Sunday 5th October

Having initially assessed and analysed the three pre-eminent Arc trials at Longchamp from earlier this afternoon, it has thrown up what looks to be an outstanding value each-way ante-post bet for the big one itself – the Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp at 3.00 on Sunday 5^th October.

Most impressive visual winner of the three trials was undoubtedly last year’s Arc runner-up Aventure, who ghosted through the Prix Vermeille and is now vying for joint favouritism with the impressive Cheshire, Epsom, Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk.

Aventure was unlucky to bump into a peak Bluestocking twice in the autumn last season, and she has once again looked a filly of high-quality once again this season, chasing home Calandagan before today’s visually smooth win in the Prix Vermeille.

However, Whirl was bitterly disappointing and provided no challenge to Aventure, who was ultimately left no different a task in beating the likes of Gezora, Bedtime Story and Survie, than she has already proved capable of. I don’t think it told us too much more about her than we already knew.

With the disappointments of Whirl and Kalpana over the weekend, the market now looks ripe for some activity and without doubt the race to focus on is the Prix Foy, as it was run at a very solid tempo on account of Ballydoyle pacesetter Mont St Michel, and produced a time comfortably quicker than Aventure in the Prix Vermeille, and light years ahead of anything in the Prix Niel.

The Japanese raider Byzantine Dream was given an excellent ride by Oisin Murphy, who played his cards last of all off a strong tempo, and in doing so ran down the high-quality Sosie. If the ground was as fast on Arc day as it was today, then without doubt you’d have to factor in Byzantine Dream to calculations and also by proxy, the chances of Japan’s main contender Croix Du Nord.

Sosie himself will surely be in the shake-up again, but is perhaps at a level which needs absolutely everything to go right for him over a trip that ultimately maybe just stretches him and was benefitted from sitting midfield in behind today’s strong pace in the Prix Foy.

Without doubt for me, the one to take from any of the last few days trials and tribulations in regard to the Arc De Triomphe market from an ante-post perspective is the 40/1 each-way available about Almaqam with Bet365 and Paddy Power.

Having broke well from a wide draw in today’s Prix Foy, Almaqam ultimately then sat a little handier than was probably ideal and raced with more than just a little freshness. In the run, Almaqam was then much closer to the speed compared with the two horses that fought out the finish, and having ranged upsides Los Angeles with 2 furlongs to run, he could easily have folded once his chance had gone.

With Byzantine Dream and Sosie edging by, having been slightly more efficiently ridden, for Almaqam to keep on galloping, go past Los Angeles, and if anything, perhaps slightly close on the two ahead of him in the final 50 yards, he suggested to me that he was the one to take from today’s race.

What’s more, Almaqam has been waiting all season long for softer ground, and with Longchamp drying up notably today, he still didn’t get it. If indeed there is even just a slight bit of ease in the ground in Paris in a month’s time, then Almaqam is nowhere near a 40/1 chance. If it were genuine soft or heavy, then he’d be close to a single figure price in my opinion.

Ed Walker also came out afterwards and was still keen to stick to the plan of running in the big one on the first Sunday of October, and his jockey today William Buick, gave him no reason to sway from that either.