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Date published: February 23, 2026
Date of Tips: 25/11/2025
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:28 25/11/2025) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Sweden and Ukraine meet in a tense World Cup playoff clash on March 26, with kick-off set for an evening showdown at a neutral venue due to Ukraine’s ongoing situation. It’s a huge moment for both sides, and the stakes couldn’t be clearer: win, or watch the dream of reaching the World Cup fade away. So here’s a detailed look at this Sweden vs Ukraine prediction and everything you should know heading into the match.
Sweden enter this playoff knowing that the Nations League gave them a second life after a rough qualifying campaign. Finishing last in their group with just two points from six matches was a major disappointment, but winning their Nations League group opened the door to these playoffs. Graham Potter now has the responsibility of getting this side sharp, organised, and mentally ready for a high-pressure knockout tie.
Potter has already stressed the importance of proper preparation. His focus is entirely on Ukraine, and he’s spending these months staying close to club managers, checking on his players’ form, and building the right mentality for a one-off match. A win would set up a decisive final against either Poland or Albania at home in Solna on March 31, but Sweden know none of that matters unless they beat Ukraine first.
Ukraine come into this semi-final carrying not only sporting expectations but also the emotional weight of representing a war-torn country. They’ve been forced to play their “home” games in Poland, yet they’ve shown impressive resilience. Their last outing was a confident 2-0 win over Iceland, and they hold a strong record against Sweden—five wins in their last six meetings, including a dramatic 2-1 extra-time victory in June 2021.
Trubin; Konoplia, Zabarnyi, Matvyenko, Mykolenko; Kaliuzhnyi, Malinovsky, Yarmoliuk; Tsygankov, Zubkov; Vanat.
Zetterström; Krafth, Starfelt, Lindelöf, Svensson; Lundgren, Zeneli, Svanberg, Sema, Bardghji; Lidberg.
This matchup feels much closer than the historical head-to-head might suggest. Yes, Ukraine have dominated past meetings, but Sweden’s squad has plenty of talent and a fresh energy under Graham Potter. What should encourage you is Sweden’s improved performances compared to last year and the advantage of often rising to the occasion in knockout formats.
Ukraine, however, are difficult to look past. Their recent 2-0 win over Iceland showed exactly the kind of composed, purposeful football you need in playoff games. They defend well, move the ball sharply, and have a midfield capable of controlling the tempo. Their structure is also more settled than Sweden’s, which helps in these one-match scenarios.
If you are weighing up betting angles, think carefully about the recent form and the psychological experience Ukraine carry from winning high-pressure matches repeatedly.
Here’s what I think: Ukraine come into this slightly sharper, slightly more cohesive, and with the stronger recent record. Sweden have quality, especially in players like Lindelöf, Bardghji, and Isak should he feature, but their overall inconsistency over the past year is hard to ignore.
Ukraine’s resilience, defensive structure, and pace in wide areas could cause Sweden serious problems, especially if Sweden start slowly. Expect Sweden to have spells of control, but Ukraine look more likely to convert their moments into goals.
Match Prediction: Ukraine to win. Bet with bet365.
If you’re leaning toward exact-score angles, here are realistic options based strictly on the matchup style and recent performances:
Correct Score Prediction: Ukraine 2-1 Sweden. Bet with bet365.
This playoff smells like a low-to-mid scoring game.
Under 2.5 Goals stands out as a strong angle.
Both teams understand the importance of caution in a knockout scenario, and nothing about recent performances suggests a goal-fest.
If you prefer something looser:
Over/Under Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. Bet with bet365.
A sensible bet builder for this tie might include:
This reflects the expected tightness, Ukraine’s slight upper hand, and the likelihood of the match opening up later on.
Bet Builder Tip: Ukraine to qualify, under 3.5 total goals, and either team to score in the second half. Bet with bet365.
Key Stats
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Ukraine look slightly stronger based on recent form and the head-to-head record, but Sweden absolutely have the players to make this competitive.
2–1 to Ukraine feels like the most balanced prediction.
It could. Sweden often keep things tight, and Ukraine have gone deep into knockout matches before.
Ukraine, with their 2-0 win over Iceland and strong head-to-head record.
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