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Brentford
Nottingham ForestCan Brentford finally turn a decent performance into three points, or will Forest nick something at the Gtech and drag themselves further away from trouble? That is the question sitting at the heart of this fixture. Both sides are carrying problems they cannot seem to shake, and the team that fixes theirs for ninety minutes is going to come out on top. Let’s break it down properly.
This Premier League fixture takes place at the Gtech Community Stadium in West London, with Brentford sitting sixth in the table and Forest down in 18th. Twelve places separate these two clubs right now, which tells you everything about the contrasting trajectories coming into this one, though neither side is in the kind of form their league position might suggest.
Keith Andrews has a handful of injury absences to manage, and Yehor Yarmolyuk is still serving the final stages of a three match ban from his red card against Liverpool, so he misses out again here. Vitaly Janelt is back after his one match suspension though, which is a boost in the middle of the park.
For Forest, Oliver Glasner is sweating over a couple of his own. Nicolas Dominguez could feature after a muscle injury, and Neco Williams is edging closer to a return after his elbow problem. However, Igor Jesus and Nicolo Savona are both expected to miss out.
Andrews will likely recall Janelt straight into the starting side, slotting back into his role in the engine room. Up front, Igor Thiago leads the line despite his modest tally so far this season, with Kevin Schade and Keane Lewis-Potter providing the creative and goalscoring threat from wider areas.
Brentford: Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, Van den Berg, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Sangare; Ouattara, Jensen, Schade; Igor Thiago
Glasner looks set to stick with a shape that puts Liam Delap as the focal point of the attack, supported by Dan Ndoye and Morgan Gibbs-White. The midfield pairing of McAtee and Schlager needs to be on it if Forest are going to control any meaningful spells of this game.
Nottingham Forest: Sels; Cunha, Milenkovic, Murillo; Munoz, McAtee, Schlager, Netz; Ndoye, Gibbs-White; Delap
Brentford’s form makes for slightly baffling reading when you look at the table. Sixth place sounds healthy enough, but Andrews’ side have won just once in their last seven league matches. That one win was a 3-0 hammering of Chelsea before the international break, which felt like a real statement. The problem is nothing has followed it. Two draws and two defeats across all competitions since then, with only two Premier League points from a possible nine. There is clearly quality in this squad, but something is not clicking on a consistent basis.
The pattern that stands out above everything else is Brentford’s habit of scoring first and not finishing the job. They have scored the opener in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions and failed to win five of those. In the top flight specifically, leads against Leeds, Sunderland, Bournemouth and Aston Villa have all been surrendered to draws, plus that defeat to Liverpool when they were reduced to nine men. Any team that scores first as often as Brentford do should be picking up far more points than this.
Forest arrive in equally unconvincing form. Four league games without a win, three defeats in that run, and they have failed to score in two of those four matches. That is a serious problem for a side that joint holds the worst attacking record in the top flight with just six goals in eight games. Last weekend they were the better side against Ipswich but could not convert their chances, and a Leif Davis goal line clearance rubbed salt into the wound. Glasner will know his side need to be far more clinical if they are going to get anything here.
These two sides have met a fair amount in recent seasons as both have become established Premier League regulars. Forest have traditionally been hard to beat in this fixture, and meetings between these clubs have often been tight, low scoring affairs. Brentford’s home record against Forest is decent enough, though the visitors are not the type of side that simply rolls over when things are going against them.
What does stand out from recent meetings is that goals have not exactly flowed. Neither of these teams is particularly free scoring at the moment, which might point toward a match decided by fine margins rather than a high scoring affair. Whoever takes their first real chance could end up dictating the whole shape of the game.
This is a game where the margins are tight but the patterns are fairly clear. Brentford are the better team on paper and at home, but their inability to kill games off is a genuine concern. Forest are short of goals and short of confidence right now. The angle here is backing the Bees to edge it while keeping an eye on the markets that reflect how careful and controlled this game is likely to be.
Forest need points badly and will work hard defensively, which can lead to some cynical challenges when they are chasing the game. Brentford’s players are not shy about winning free kicks either. A game like this, with real pressure on the away side, tends to produce a handful of bookings. Around three or four cards across the ninety minutes feels about right.
With Forest averaging fewer than a goal a game and Brentford having issues converting their dominance into multiple goals, the under 2.5 goals market is worth a serious look. These are two sides who struggle to put games to bed rather than two sides who run riot. A tight match with two or three goals at most feels like the likeliest outcome here.
Brentford like to get bodies forward and put balls into the box, and Forest under pressure will invite that approach. The Bees create a fair number of corners from their wide play, and a Forest side chasing the game in the second half could contribute to that tally too. Over eight corners in the match looks a reasonable call given how these sides set up.
Kevin Schade is the pick here. He has three league goals already this season, making him the Bees’ top scorer, and he is getting into the right areas consistently. With Janelt returning to link the midfield and play in the wide men, Schade looks well placed to get on the end of something early and set the tone for Brentford.
A 2-1 Brentford win feels right. The Bees take the lead, Forest nick one back and make it nervy, but this time Andrews’ side hold on. Schade and Lewis-Potter as the Brentford scorers, with Delap or Ndoye grabbing a consolation for the visitors. It fits the form book and the patterns we have seen from both clubs this season.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Brentford to Win |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Kevin Schade |
Brentford winning while both sides score reflects exactly the pattern we have seen all season, and Schade as the opener ties it together nicely given his current form in front of goal.
Brentford are the right side to back here. They are the stronger squad, the better team at home, and they are facing a Forest side that is genuinely struggling to put the ball in the net. The concern is always that the Bees will find a way to make it harder than it needs to be, but at the Gtech against a side with six league goals all season, they should have enough.
Forest will not roll over and Glasner will organise them well enough to stay in it, but the quality of Schade, Lewis-Potter and Janelt driving from midfield should be enough to tip this one in the home side’s favour. Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest is the call, and hopefully this time the Bees see it out.
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