Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Prediction, ATP Paris Day 3 Betting Tips

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad

Day three at ATP Paris brings the tournament’s bigger names into action, and there’s plenty to get stuck into across the men’s draw. We’ve got a Frenchman feeding off home support, a rematch that could go very differently to the first meeting, and Carlos Alcaraz back on court against someone who actually gave him a game not so long ago. Here’s how I see the day’s matches playing out.

Arthur Rinderknech vs Mattia Bellucci

Bellucci has been in outstanding touch getting to this stage. The Italian came through qualifying without dropping a set, beating Pablo Carreño Busta and Thiago Tirante, and then kept that same clinical form going in the first round when he dispatched Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets. Three wins, zero sets dropped. He looks sharp and is playing the kind of decisive, confident tennis that tends to put opponents on the back foot before they’ve settled.

Rinderknech is a different animal when he’s playing in Paris though. The crowd lifts him enormously, and while his opening win over Francisco Cerundolo was messy rather than convincing, retiring opponents still count. He’ll come into this one buzzing off the atmosphere and looking to make his big serve count on a surface that suits it. The two have met once before with Rinderknech taking that one, so there’s no psychological advantage Bellucci can call on.

I think this goes the distance. Rinderknech will push hard and the crowd will give him energy when he needs it most. But Bellucci’s current form is simply too clean to ignore, and I expect the Italian to grind out the win when it matters.

Learner Tien vs Luca Van Assche

Van Assche had a solid first round, beating Mariano Navone in front of his home supporters with real efficiency. He won 86% of his first serve points and converted three of his six break point opportunities, so the numbers look good. The problem is that Tien absolutely dismantled him in Vienna just a week ago, winning 6-3, 6-1 in what was a thoroughly one sided contest. That kind of hiding takes some recovering from, particularly when you’re facing the same opponent again so quickly.

Tien had to work harder in his own first round match, coming through a three setter against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo on Tuesday. But the fact that he found his best tennis when the decider arrived says a lot about his competitive temperament. He’s the one with both the head to head lead and the better recent form heading into this match, and Van Assche is going to need a significantly improved plan if he wants a different outcome this time around.

A turnaround inside a week against a player who barely gave you a look in is an enormous ask. I fully expect Tien to come through again, though Van Assche’s home crowd will make sure this isn’t as straightforward as Vienna.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen

These two met in Tokyo about a month ago and it was more competitive than the final scoreline of 7-6, 4-6, 6-1 suggested. Michelsen forced a decider after a fortunate netcord winner at a critical moment in the second set, and Alcaraz was also still finding his rhythm with a rebuilt serve at that point. The American is a genuine threat to anyone over a set with his big first serve and heavy left handed forehand, and fast indoor conditions like those in Paris are exactly what he wants.

The issue for Michelsen is what usually happens after that set. Very few players can sustain pressure on Alcaraz beyond a single set, and the Spaniard has had a month since Tokyo to get more comfortable with that new serve. The quick indoor hard courts at the Accor Arena actually suit Alcaraz’s first strike game well, alongside his usual ability to change the pace and direction when opponents think they’ve got a read on him.

Michelsen will likely get his moments and could well take a set, as he showed he’s capable of doing before. But Alcaraz at this level, on a surface he’s growing into this week, should be too complete a player to let this slip.

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad