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Minnesota United
San Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United need to get the job done at Allianz Field this weekend, and there is no margin for error. The Loons sit 12th in the Western Conference with 41 points from 33 games, just two behind Colorado Rapids in that final playoff spot. Win and hope for the right result elsewhere, or watch the season end without a postseason run. For a side that has been genuinely electric over the last month or so, going out without a fight would feel like a waste of what has been a remarkable late surge.
San Jose come into this one in a very different position. Bruce Arena’s side already have their playoff spot locked up, sitting third in the West with 52 points. The result here matters less to them in terms of standing, but finishing the regular season strong ahead of a postseason run is not nothing. The question is whether they can muster genuine intensity on the road against a side playing like their season depends on it. Because it does.
This fixture brings down the curtain on the 2026 MLS regular season for both sides, with the action taking place at Allianz Field in Saint Paul. It is a Western Conference regular season clash that carries serious weight for the home side and genuine intrigue for the visitors ahead of the postseason.
Minnesota are carrying a couple of notable absences, though their attacking options remain strong enough to cause problems. San Jose head in with some significant gaps through the spine of their side.
Cameron Knowles looks set to name a strong starting side. With Trapp missing, the midfield will need others to step up and control the tempo, but Kelvin Yeboah leading the line gives Minnesota genuine threat. Joaquin Pereyra is fresh from a brace against Los Angeles FC and will carry real confidence into this one.
Minnesota United: Callender; Valerius, Diaz, Duggan, Markanich; Chancalay, Triantis, Gene, Gonzalez; Pereyra, Yeboah
San Jose are dealt a tricky hand in midfield given the absences of Gonzalez and others through the spine of the squad. Bruce Arena will likely lean on the structure of his side and trust the players who got them to third in the West in the first place.
San Jose Earthquakes: Edwards Jr.; Kikanovic, Munie, Roberts, Romney; Harkes, Fernandez; Bouda, Tsakiris, Ricketts; Judd
Minnesota United’s turnaround over the last couple of months is one of the stories of the MLS season. After losing five on the bounce, they have gone unbeaten in their last six, picking up three wins and three draws. The win over Sporting Kansas City on October 29 was followed by an impressive 3-1 triumph at Los Angeles FC, where Pereyra grabbed two and Valerius chipped in as well. That is not a soft result, that is a proper away performance against a good side. The momentum is real.
What stands out in the numbers is the attacking output. Minnesota have scored two or more in five of their last six games. That is not luck, that is a side that has figured something out going forward. Yeboah has been central to that, with 18 goals and four assists from 29 league starts this season. When a striker that prolific is in form and playing at home with the season on the line, that is a potent combination.
San Jose’s form is a bit more complicated. They are third in the West and have had a genuinely impressive season overall, but they have won just once in eight games since August. That one win came last Saturday against Real Salt Lake, a 2-1 at home where Bouda and Kikanovic put them in control early before they held on. Before that, they were hammered 3-0 by FC Dallas and drew 2-2 with Colorado at home. A side that knows they are through to the playoffs can sometimes carry a little less urgency, and that showed in that run. Coming to Allianz Field against a desperate Minnesota side is a tough ask for a team still finding its groove.
The head to head record here makes for very interesting reading if you are backing the home side. San Jose have not won a league visit to Allianz Field since May 2018, when they came away with a 3-1 victory. In the six league trips since then, they have lost four and drawn two. That is a really consistent pattern of struggling on this particular ground.
Minnesota have clearly made Allianz Field a genuinely difficult place for this opponent to come and get anything from. With the Loons in their current form and San Jose missing key players, there is little reason to expect that trend to change this weekend.
Everything here points in the same direction. Minnesota are in form, playing at home, desperate for the points and carrying real attacking firepower. San Jose are without key players, struggling for consistency on the road, and have already secured what they came for this season. The betting angle is fairly clear, though the Earthquakes have shown they can nick goals even in difficult circumstances.
Minnesota have been scoring freely and both sides have shown they can find the net when motivated. With the Loons needing goals and San Jose carrying attacking threats of their own even without the full squad, backing over 2.5 goals feels like the natural call here.
Yes. San Jose grabbed two against Real Salt Lake last week and have enough quality in the final third to trouble most defences. Minnesota’s back line has been solid but not impenetrable. With the tempo this game is likely to be played at, goals at both ends feels very probable.
Minnesota win 2-1. The Loons have enough quality and enough desire to get over the line, but San Jose will not simply roll over, and the Earthquakes finding a consolation late on feels very much in keeping with how both sides have been playing.
Kelvin Yeboah. With 18 goals already this season and playing at home in what could be a defining match for the club, the Italian striker is primed to deliver. He has been the focal point of Minnesota’s attack all season, and with Pereyra also in his ear competing for the glory, Yeboah will be hungry to be the one who opens the scoring.
This one has the makings of a feisty, high intensity affair. Minnesota are desperate and San Jose will be battling to stay organised against a side pressing hard from the first whistle. Expect at least four bookings across the 90 minutes, with the midfield battles likely to produce the most action for the referee.
Minnesota have been getting bodies forward and generating pressure in recent weeks, and a home side that needs goals will push even harder here. With San Jose potentially sitting in and looking to absorb before hitting on the break, the corner count should stack up nicely. Over 9.5 corners is worth looking at.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Minnesota United to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Kelvin Yeboah |
A Minnesota win with both teams scoring fits the 2-1 scoreline prediction perfectly, and Yeboah as first scorer adds real value to a bet that already hangs together logically given the form and context of this fixture.
Minnesota United 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes. The Loons have done everything right over the last six weeks to give themselves a shot at the playoffs. They are at home, they are in form, their striker is on fire and the opposition have a terrible record at this ground. All the ingredients are there for a Minnesota win.
San Jose are not a bad side by any stretch, and they will give the Loons something to think about. But a team that has won once in eight games, is missing several key players and has nothing concrete riding on the result is at a disadvantage against a desperate home side. Minnesota get the three points they need, and Kelvin Yeboah writes himself into the club’s season narrative in the process.
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