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Freiburg
Union BerlinFreiburg have been on a bit of a rollercoaster this season, but right now they look like a side that has remembered exactly what made them so impressive in the opening weeks of the campaign. Three wins on the bounce across all competitions, a Bundesliga spot in the top three, and a home game against a Union Berlin side still scrapping to stay in the division. The timing feels right for Julian Schuster’s men to push themselves back into title contention.
What makes this fixture genuinely interesting though is that Union are not the soft touch their league position might suggest. Mauro Lustrinelli has steadied the ship after a dreadful start, and Die Eisernen have picked up six of their seven points in the last four games. This will not be a stroll. Freiburg will have to work for it.
This Bundesliga clash takes place at Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg, with the hosts looking to consolidate their place in the top three and potentially go top of the table depending on results elsewhere. It is a classic contrast of styles and motivations: a team chasing the summit versus a team fighting to escape the bottom three.
Freiburg are in decent shape heading into this one, though there is one concern worth noting. For Union, the injury and suspension situation is considerably more complicated, with Lustrinelli forced into some awkward defensive reshuffling.
Schuster is likely to stick close to the shape that has served him well during this winning run. Eggestein and Engelhardt anchor the midfield, with Yuito Suzuki given license to operate in a more advanced role behind Igor Matanovic. Cyriaque Irie’s match-winning cameo at Augsburg will keep him in the conversation, but the starting berth is likely to go to the more established options on the flanks.
Freiburg: Backhaus; Treu, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo; Eggestein, Engelhardt; Beste, Suzuki, Scherhant; Matanovic
For Union, Lustrinelli is working with a patched up back line. Marvin Friedrich, Rani Khedira and Zeno Van Den Bosch are set to form the back three, with Janik Haberer and Derrick Kohn operating as wing backs. Andras Schafer and Michel Aebischer take care of the central midfield duties, while Tim Skarke and Livan Burcu lead the attack with Kastriot Imeri in support.
Union Berlin: Ronnow; Friedrich, Khedira, Van Den Bosch; Haberer, Schafer, Aebischer, Kohn; Imeri; Burcu, Skarke
Freiburg’s form story this season has had two very distinct chapters. The first was outstanding: five games, top of the Bundesliga, playing with a confidence and cohesion that genuinely surprised people. Then came three consecutive defeats, including a 3-0 hammering at Monaco and a 3-1 loss to Bayern, which made you wonder whether they had hit their ceiling. Chapter two, though, looks like a correction rather than a collapse. Back to back wins, capped by Thursday’s 1-0 continental win over Trabzonspor and before that a comeback 2-1 at Augsburg where Matanovic and the impressive young Irie did the damage.
The table tells you everything you need to know about where Freiburg stand right now. Sixteen points, third place, just two behind Bayern and Dortmund. A win here genuinely puts them in the conversation for top spot. That kind of incentive tends to sharpen a team’s focus.
Union’s story is more about survival than ambition, but there is genuine substance to their recent improvement. Three of their first four games ended in defeat, dropping them straight into the relegation zone, but four games unbeaten since then has completely changed the mood. The 1-1 draw with Koln at the weekend was a little frustrating given Haberer had them in front inside 10 minutes, but they held their shape and competed. That is a team rebuilding belief, not just getting lucky with the schedule.
Freiburg and Union Berlin have developed a decent little rivalry over recent Bundesliga seasons, and it has been a fixture where home advantage tends to count for quite a lot. Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion are a different proposition to Freiburg on the road, particularly when they are in this kind of form. The ground is compact, the crowd gets behind the team, and Schuster’s side know how to make the most of that atmosphere.
Historically, these two sides have produced competitive matches without necessarily producing goalfests, which is worth keeping in mind when looking at the markets. Union tend to be organised and hard to break down even when they are under the cosh, so anyone expecting Freiburg to run riot should probably temper their expectations.
Freiburg look the stronger side on paper and at home, with momentum behind them and the carrot of going top dangling in front of them. But Union have shown enough resilience in recent weeks to suggest this will not be a walkover, and their defensive organisation even with a patched up backline deserves respect. The value here is in building around a Freiburg win that includes at least one Union response rather than backing a clean sheet that feels unlikely given the visitors’ forward players.
Yes. Union have shown they can find the net, with Haberer bagging inside 10 minutes last weekend, and Freiburg’s defence, while solid, has been breached in recent weeks. Both teams have enough attacking quality to get on the scoresheet, and BTTS looks like solid value here.
Freiburg 2-1 Union Berlin. The hosts should have enough to take all three points, but Union will make them earn it and are likely to grab a goal of their own, which fits the recent pattern for both sides in tight Bundesliga encounters.
Over 2.5 goals. With both teams likely to score and Freiburg pushing for a result that could send them top, the tempo should be high enough to generate three or more goals. The last time these two sides met in similar contexts, the game produced late drama, and that feels on the cards again here.
Over 9.5 corners. Freiburg play an expansive, wide game with Beste and Scherhant getting forward regularly, and Union defending with a back three will invite pressure down the flanks. Expect Freiburg to generate a lot of wide play and delivery, which should push the corners count well into double figures.
Over 3.5 cards. Union are fighting for their lives near the bottom of the table and will not be afraid to put a foot in when needed. With Freiburg chasing a result that could move them top, the intensity should be high throughout, and that tends to produce a decent card count. A frustrated Union side conceding ground as the game wears on is likely to pick up a couple of late bookings at minimum.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Freiburg to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Cards | Over 3.5 |
A Freiburg win with both sides scoring reflects the most likely narrative of this game, and stacking cards on top of that makes sense given the stakes for a Union side who cannot afford to let this slip without a fight.
Freiburg have the quality, the momentum and the home advantage to see this through. Schuster’s side know what is at stake and have looked sharp since rediscovering their early season form. Matanovic is in good nick, the midfield partnership of Eggestein and Engelhardt gives them control, and the crowd will be right behind them from the first whistle.
That said, Union have earned a bit of respect in recent weeks and will not simply roll over. Lustrinelli has got his side organised and they will make Freiburg work for it. Expect a 2-1 to the hosts, with Union nicking a consolation but ultimately leaving empty handed as Freiburg take another step towards the summit.
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