Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview
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Hoffenheim
Schalke 04There is a certain irony to this fixture. Hoffenheim spent much of last season dreaming about Champions League football, pushing deep into the top five before eventually falling short. Now they are barely above the waterline in the Bundesliga, looking over their shoulders at the drop zone with a team that cannot string results together. Schalke, meanwhile, are down there in the thick of the survival fight, arriving at SNP Arena as one of the most misfiring sides in the entire division. Two clubs heading in the wrong direction, one game to separate them before the international break. It has got all the hallmarks of a nervy, scrappy affair where neither side looks particularly convincing.
The difference between them right now is not huge in terms of quality, but it is significant in terms of goalscoring threat. Hoffenheim have at least been getting themselves into positions to win games. Schalke cannot buy a goal. That gap could well be the defining factor on Sunday afternoon.
This Bundesliga fixture takes place at SNP Arena in Sinsheim, with Hoffenheim playing in front of their home support as they look to end a miserable run before the international break gives everyone a chance to reset. It is a fixture with serious implications at the wrong end of the table, with both clubs desperate to pick up points and avoid getting sucked further into a relegation scrap.
Christian Ilzer has a defensive injury crisis on his hands, and the selection headaches at the back are significant. Several key players are unavailable, with the midfield also stripped of options. Miron Muslic is dealing with his own absentees in defence and the middle of the park.
Ilzer looks set to shuffle his backline significantly given the number of defenders unavailable. Koki Machida and Ozan Kabak are expected to form the central partnership, with Bernardo on one side and 18 year old Natnael Abraha handed a start on the other flank. It is a makeshift unit, but Ilzer has little choice. Wouter Burger and Leon Avdullahu should anchor the midfield, with Fisnik Asllani operating in behind Tim Lemperle up front. Alexander Prass and Adam Daghim provide the width.
Schalke will set up with Loris Karius in goal behind a back four of Timo Becker, Nikola Katic, Hasan Kurucay and Vitalie Becker. Satoshi Tanaka and Soufiane El Faouzi sit in the engine room, with Karaman pulling strings behind Dzeko. It is a pragmatic setup from Muslic, built more on structure than flair, which makes sense given how little they have been creating going forward.
Hoffenheim looked like a club with real direction at the start of the year after finishing fifth last season. That optimism quickly faded when they lost four of their opening five Bundesliga matches. They steadied the ship briefly with three consecutive wins in October, but the wheels have come off again since. A penalty shootout exit from the DFB Pokal against second tier Holstein Kiel was embarrassing enough, and then a 2-0 defeat at Werder Bremen last weekend left them 13th in the table with nine points. On Thursday they drew 1-1 with Crystal Palace in the Europa League, conceding an equaliser in the 91st minute after the visitors had been reduced to ten men. That kind of result stings.
Schalke’s form makes for grimmer reading. The 2.Bundesliga title winners have found top flight life brutal. They have lost four of their last five across all competitions, including a 2-0 defeat to RB Leipzig last Saturday. What is most alarming is their complete inability to score. They are the lowest scorers in the entire Bundesliga with just four goals, and they have failed to find the net in each of their last four outings. That is a catastrophic statistic for any side trying to stay in the division.
Both clubs are coming into this fixture on the back of poor runs, but there is a marked difference in the nature of those struggles. Hoffenheim have at least been competing and creating. Schalke are not just losing, they are going entire matches without testing the goalkeeper. That is a deeper problem and one that will not be fixed overnight.
Hoffenheim and Schalke have faced each other plenty of times over the years, and the home side tend to hold the upper hand in Sinsheim. Hoffenheim have generally been the more progressive side in recent seasons and their home record against Schalke gives them reason for confidence in this one. The head to head does not dramatically favour either club across all meetings, but Schalke’s away form in difficult environments has been a concern, and their current goal drought makes it hard to see them breaking their duck here.
Hoffenheim are far from the finished article this season, and Ilzer will be frustrated by how inconsistent his side have been. But facing a Schalke outfit that cannot score and that is running on fumes in terms of confidence, this feels like a spot where the hosts should be able to get the job done. The smart money is on Hoffenheim winning and the game staying relatively low scoring given how little Schalke offer in the final third.
With both sides under pressure and a physical battle likely given the defensive makeshift nature of both lineups, there should be enough aggravation on the pitch to generate a decent card count. Schalke will need to work hard to stay in the game and the desperation in the tackle could cost them. Back over three and a half cards for this one.
Tim Lemperle is the man to watch here. The Hoffenheim striker leads the line and benefits from the creativity of Asllani operating just behind him. With Schalke missing bodies in defence and their makeshift back four untested at this level in places, Lemperle has a real chance to get on the scoresheet early. Good shout for first goalscorer.
A 2-0 home win makes a lot of sense. Hoffenheim have enough quality to create and convert chances against a Schalke side with no confidence in front of goal. A clean sheet for the hosts is very achievable given Schalke’s inability to score, and two goals feels a realistic and comfortable winning margin.
Schalke are the lowest scorers in the division and have blanked four times in a row. Even if Hoffenheim score a couple, the visitors are unlikely to contribute much to the goal tally. Under 2.5 goals is worth considering, though backing under 3.5 total goals offers a safer angle given Hoffenheim may well find the net twice on their own.
Hoffenheim tend to attack with width and get bodies forward, which generates corner opportunities. Schalke defending deep to try and nick something could invite plenty of pressure from the flanks. Over 9.5 corners feels a reasonable call for a game where the hosts are expected to dominate possession and territory for large spells.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Hoffenheim to Win |
| Both Teams to Score | No |
| First Goalscorer | Tim Lemperle |
Hoffenheim winning while keeping a clean sheet fits the template of this game perfectly, and Lemperle is well placed to open the scoring against a leaky and misfiring Schalke side.
Hoffenheim have been frustrating to watch at times this season and the late capitulation against Crystal Palace in the Europa League will have stung. But a home game against the worst attack in the Bundesliga, before the international break, is exactly the kind of fixture a manager points to as a must win. Ilzer will get his squad focused on this one, and the hosts should have enough to get over the line without too much drama.
Schalke are running on empty. No goals in four games, four defeats in five, and travelling to a ground where they will be expected to defend for large periods with a patched up backline. Unless Hoffenheim produce one of their more shambolic performances, it is hard to see Die Knappen finding anything here. Hoffenheim 2-0 Schalke 04 is the call.
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