Barnet
Leyton OrientBarnet have got themselves into a really strong position in the EFL Trophy group stage, and Tuesday night at The Hive is a chance to make it official. The Bees just need to avoid a hammering to book their place in the knockout rounds, which is a pretty comfortable position to be in. Meanwhile Leyton Orient arrive knowing they need a five goal swing in their favour to leap above Barnet on goal difference, so there is a mathematical route for the Os but it is a steep one. This is a local derby with a bit of knockout edge thrown in, and that combination rarely produces a dull evening.
Dean Brennan’s side are genuinely flying right now. Second in League Two, through to the second round of the FA Cup, and unbeaten across their last four outings. Barnet are not just making up the numbers this season, they are a team with real ambition, and nights like this are where you find out whether a squad has the depth to handle a busy fixture list. Richie Wellens brings his Orient side across with some serious momentum of their own though, so do not expect this to be a straightforward evening.
This EFL Trophy group stage fixture takes place at The Hive Stadium in north London, with Barnet hosting a Leyton Orient side from the division above them. It is a cross division group setup that puts a League Two side against League One opposition, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to what is already a local derby with genuine stakes attached.
Barnet have got a selection headache of the best possible kind after three substitutes came off the bench and scored against Tranmere in the FA Cup at the weekend. Dean Brennan now has to decide whether to reward that impact or stick with the players who set the game up in the first place.
Brennan looks likely to hand starts to his super sub trio from the weekend, shifting the balance of his attacking options while keeping the Gallagher and Comley axis in the middle of the park. That gives Barnet a lineup with real energy and players who will want to prove they deserve a regular starting berth.
For Orient, Wellens appears set to trust the side that put five past Harborough. Kabia through the middle, Connolly and Dobra either side, and the experienced Inmaculada El Mizouni and Ruel Sotiriou Gilbert anchoring things in midfield. Barnet possible lineup: Cox; Tavares, Collinge, Senior; Smith, Comley, Gallagher, Kanu; Reeves, Ofoborh; Ajayi. Leyton Orient possible lineup: Baxter; Stevens, Gilchrist, Edmonds Green, Boniface; El Mizouni, Gilbert; Connolly, Wellens, Dobra; Kabia.
Barnet are absolutely purring right now. That 3-0 win over Tranmere was not built on a steady platform of control, it was three late goals that turned the tie, which tells you something about the character in this squad. They do not panic and they know how to win ugly when they have to. In the EFL Trophy, they have been even more dominant, putting five past Arsenal Under-21s and then grinding through a penalty shootout against Wimbledon. Five points from two games, top of the pile in their group effectively, and playing with a confidence that League Two opponents are starting to notice.
Leyton Orient have rediscovered their rhythm at exactly the right moment. Back to back big wins, the 3-0 against Cambridge United in the league and then the 5-1 cup romp against Harborough, have put some real belief back into the squad after what had been a patchy start to the campaign by their own standards. Sitting 14th in League One with 17 points from 13 games is not quite where they would want to be, but form is pointing upward and Wellens will be desperate to keep that going.
The contrast in EFL Trophy form is fairly stark. Barnet have five points, Orient have two. The Os did recover from going behind to beat Wimbledon on penalties but then lost 2-1 to the Arsenal Under-21s, which left their qualification hopes hanging by a thread. They basically need to win big here, and that is a difficult ask against a Barnet side that is organised, in form, and playing in front of their own fans.
These two clubs have a decent history of competitive meetings, and whenever they end up in the same competition the games tend to carry a edge that goes beyond the points on offer. The cross division element adds a bit of needle too, with Orient the higher ranked side but Barnet very much the in form team right now. Home advantage has tended to matter in these encounters and The Hive is a compact, atmospheric ground that suits Brennan’s direct and energetic style.
Orient will be aware that rolling into north London expecting an easy night based on league status alone would be a mistake. Barnet have already shown this season they can mix it at a high level, and their trophy record in this group is built on more than just luck.
The context of this game shapes the betting more than anything else. Barnet need only avoid a heavy defeat to go through, which should produce a solid, defensively aware performance without killing the game completely. Orient need goals, ideally a lot of them, which means they will push forward. That sets up a game where both teams are likely to get on the scoresheet, and where individual performers could have big nights.
Jaze Kabia is the standout pick here. Orient need goals and he is the man they will look to first, leading the line in what should be an open and attack minded game for the visitors. He will be motivated to perform against lower division opposition, and if Orient start quickly he could get himself on the board early.
With Orient needing to chase the game and Barnet not averse to getting bodies forward themselves, expect plenty of set piece situations throughout the ninety minutes. Over 9.5 corners is a realistic target here given the attacking intent both sides are likely to bring, particularly if Orient find themselves needing to push more and more as the game progresses.
Orient’s situation essentially demands attacking football, and Barnet have shown they are comfortable contributing to high scoring evenings. The 5-1 against Arsenal Under-21s shows they are not adverse to putting games to bed in style. Over 2.5 goals looks well worth backing in this one.
Barnet will not be looking to sit and park the bus, they are a team that plays on the front foot. Orient have the attacking talent to cause problems through Kabia, Connolly and Dobra. Both teams to score looks like a genuinely solid call here, with neither side likely to keep a clean sheet given the circumstances of the fixture.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over |
| First Goalscorer | Jaze Kabia |
Orient’s need to attack means goals are coming at both ends, and Kabia getting in early as the first scorer ties the whole angle together nicely.
Barnet go into this in a genuinely comfortable position and they will know it. That could actually work against them slightly, with squad rotation and a less urgent mindset potentially giving Orient a foothold. Wellens will set his side up to cause problems and the attacking quality out wide through Connolly and Dobra gives them a real chance of finding the net.
That said, Barnet at home, unbeaten in four, with three in form attackers hungry to cement their starting spots, is not a team to write off. This has the feel of a game where both teams contribute, neither fully opens up, and the spoils are shared. Barnet 1-1 Leyton Orient.
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