England vs Croatia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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England

vs

Croatia

KickoffThursday 12 November 2026, 7:45pm

VenueWembley Stadium

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

TV ChannelITV

England are genuinely humming right now. Three wins on the bounce in the Nations League, 14 goals scored, only three conceded, and a goal difference so healthy it is the best across all four tiers of the competition. Thomas Tuchel has this squad playing with confidence and a cutting edge that looked a distant dream not so long ago. Croatia, by painful contrast, are in freefall. Slaven Bilic has watched his side lose their last three games, including that extraordinary 7-0 hiding at Wembley last month that went into the record books as the worst defeat in Croatian football history. These two sides are heading in completely opposite directions.

What makes this fixture even more loaded is the context around it. England are a single point away from reaching the Nations League quarter-finals for the first time since the inaugural edition back in 2018-19. Croatia meanwhile are fighting to avoid a potential relegation playoff. The gap in mood, momentum and quality between these two camps could not be more stark heading into this one.

England vs Croatia Match Details

This UEFA Nations League League A Group 3 fixture takes place at Wembley Stadium, the home of English football. England come into this as heavy favourites on their own patch, with a place in the last eight of the competition well within reach before they then turn their attention to a weekend showdown with group leaders Spain.

Team News

England have a couple of notable absentees, though the squad remains impressively strong. Croatia are in a far worse state on the injury and suspension front, with Bilic having lost multiple players since naming his group.

• Cole Palmer is absent again after being left out of the squad by Tuchel, continuing the Chelsea playmaker’s international exile
• Marc Guehi is out through injury for England
• Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended, having picked up two yellow cards in League A
• Harry Kane is fit and set to earn his 126th cap, which would break Peter Shilton’s all-time England appearance record
• Ivan Perisic is suspended for Croatia after collecting two bookings in their defeat to Spain
• Josip Sutalo, Martin Pongracic, Andrej Kramaric, Franjo Ivanovic and Kristijan Jakic have all been ruled out through injury for the visitors
• Luka Modric is fit and expected to captain Croatia for what would be his 207th cap at the age of 41

Predicted Lineups

Tuchel has limited reason to tinker given the form his side are in. With Lewis-Skelly suspended at left back, Lewis Hall should slot in. The uncapped Josh King and Jobe Bellingham are both in the squad but expect Tuchel to prioritise getting the job done over handing out debuts. Kane leads the line and chases history.

• England: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Branthwaite, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
• Croatia: Livakovic; Stanisic, Vuskovic, Caleta-Car, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; Vlasic, Pasalic, Baturina; Budimir

Croatia are so depleted in attacking areas that Bilic has very little room to manoeuvre. Modric pulling the strings in midfield is still a threat on his day, but the supporting cast around him has been severely thinned out by the injury list. Gvardiol at left back remains one of their few genuinely world-class operators.

Recent Form

England’s trajectory in this Nations League group tells its own story. They opened with a narrow 3-2 defeat to Spain that felt more like a learning experience than a proper beating, and since then it has been relentless. Back-to-back wins over the Czech Republic followed, before the stunning 7-0 demolition of Croatia last month that announced this team as genuine contenders in the competition. Fourteen goals in four games, three clean sheets in a row, and a goal difference of plus eleven across the entire Nations League. These are not just good numbers, they are exceptional ones.

What is particularly encouraging for England fans is their record at Wembley in this competition. Since a 1-0 defeat to Denmark in 2020, the Three Lions have scored 20 goals in seven Nations League matches under that arch. The place has become a fortress with an attacking edge, and the crowd will be in full voice again knowing their team is one result away from the quarter-finals.

Croatia’s recent form makes for grim reading. They started the group well enough with a win over the Czech Republic, but that feels like a very long time ago now. Three defeats on the spin, nine points dropped from a possible nine, and that catastrophic seven-goal loss sitting over the entire camp like a storm cloud. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 games across all competitions. That defensive fragility combined with an already threadbare forward line makes this trip to Wembley look extremely daunting.

Head-to-Head Record

England have now won four consecutive games against Croatia, and the margin of those victories has been growing. The two sides have a bit of history of course, most notably Croatia’s famous 3-2 win at Wembley that knocked England out of qualifying for Euro 2008, and their victory in the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow. For a long time, Croatia had England’s number. That era feels firmly closed now.

The 7-0 last month was not just a result, it was a statement. England are on an entirely different level to this Croatia side right now, and even accounting for the fact that such a margin is unlikely to be repeated, the head-to-head trend clearly points one way. England have been ruthless against these opponents recently and there is nothing in the current Croatian setup to suggest they can reverse that.

Key Stats

• England have scored 14 goals in four Nations League games this campaign, the most of any side across all four tiers of the competition
• Croatia have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 matches across all competitions
• England have scored 20 goals in seven Nations League home games at Wembley since their 1-0 defeat to Denmark in 2020

England vs Croatia Betting Tips

This fixture sets up beautifully for punters who fancy England to do what England have been doing consistently throughout this group: score freely, keep things tight at the back, and win with something to spare. Croatia arrive depleted, low on confidence, and carrying the psychological weight of that record defeat last month. The angles here are pretty clear.

Cards Prediction

Croatia are under pressure and have players who will be desperate to make an impression, which can lead to reckless challenges as the game gets away from them. England are disciplined and organised, so the card count is unlikely to run wild, but expect at least three or four bookings in this one with the visitors more likely to contribute the majority of them as frustration builds.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Croatia have shown enough attacking intent in this campaign to suggest they can nick a goal, particularly given England are likely to control possession and leave occasional gaps on the counter. England’s defensive record of three clean sheets on the spin is impressive, but Croatia do carry a threat through Modric and their wide players. BTTS is a marginal call, but the lack of clean sheets in Croatia’s recent run makes Yes the slightly more attractive option.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

With England’s attacking output and Croatia’s leaky defence, backing over 2.5 goals feels like the sensible play here. England averaged 3.5 goals per Nations League game before this fixture and Croatia have been struggling to keep things tight at the back. A comfortable home win with multiple goals is the most likely outcome.

Corners Prediction

England like to get wide and get bodies forward, and when they are dominating possession against a side sitting deep, the corners tend to pile up. Croatia will likely spend large chunks of this game defending, which means England’s wide players and wing backs will be whipping balls in repeatedly. Backing over 9.5 corners looks well worth considering given how this game is likely to play out.

Bet Builder Tip

An England win with goals and corners stacking up reflects exactly the kind of dominant home performance this setup is built to deliver against a depleted and demoralised Croatian side.

Final Match Prediction

England will not hit seven again, and they probably do not need to. Tuchel will want a controlled, professional performance that gets them over the qualification line and keeps the squad fresh for the Spain game. Croatia have enough individual quality to make it interesting for a spell, perhaps grabbing a goal if England switch off momentarily, but the overall direction of this game is not really in question.

Kane breaking the caps record at Wembley in front of a full house, with England booking their quarter-final spot in the process, is the kind of occasion that tends to bring out the best in this squad. England to win comfortably. Predicted score: England 3-1 Croatia.

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