Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Montenegro

vs

Latvia

KickoffThursday 12 November 2026, 7:45pm

VenueStadion pod Goricom

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Montenegro are flying right now. Four games into this Nations League C campaign and Mirko Vucinic’s side have already racked up ten points, sitting top of Group C2 and looking every inch a team that has rediscovered its purpose after a miserable World Cup qualifying cycle. The contrast with Latvia could hardly be sharper. Paolo Nicolato’s side have one point from four games, they are anchored to the bottom of the table, and there is precious little evidence on the pitch that the Italian’s appointment has sparked anything resembling a turnaround. This one has the feel of a team pressing for the title against a side already mentally preparing for the offseason.

Montenegro know what is at stake here. Win this, and depending on results elsewhere in the group, they could wrap up automatic promotion back to League B with a game to spare. That kind of motivation on home soil against a Latvia outfit this low on confidence is a potent combination.

Montenegro vs Latvia Match Details

This UEFA Nations League C fixture takes place at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica, the home fortress for Hrabri Sokoli. Montenegro have climbed to the summit of League C2 and a positive result here would go a long way toward sealing their return to the second tier of this competition. Latvia make the trip across Europe as the group’s basement side, still chasing their first win of this campaign.

Team News

Montenegro are without one key midfielder but are otherwise well stocked, while Latvia carry a couple of notable absentees that further weaken an already stretched squad.

• Stefan Lonar is suspended for Montenegro after picking up a red card during his cameo against Armenia last time out. The 30 year old midfielder will sit this one out.
• Marko Jankovic of Qarabag FK is expected to retain his starting spot in the middle of the park as a result of Lonar’s ban.
• Milutin Osmajic, formerly of Preston North End, brings ten senior international goals to this fixture and will be pushing for more up front.
• Latvia are without Renars Varslavans, a 22 cap international who is sidelined until the New Year with a serious knee injury.
• Kristers Penkevics is also unavailable for this window, having not featured for the national side since a June friendly against the Faroe Islands.

Predicted Lineups

Vucinic has a settled side and very little reason to tinker. The loss of Lonar in midfield is the one enforced change, but Jankovic slotting in gives Montenegro experience and composure in that area. The front three picks itself, with the in form Vasilije Adzic pulling strings behind Jovetic and Krstovic, and Osmajic providing the physical threat to lead the line.

Montenegro: Popovic; Roganovic, Djuric, Savic, Gasevic; Adzic, Bulatovic, Jankovic; Jovetic, Krstovic, Osmajic

Latvia are likely to set up compactly and try to keep the scoreline respectable for as long as possible. Nicolato will be working with limited attacking options given his absentees, with Gutkovskis leading the line largely in isolation. It is hard to see where the goals come from for the visitors.

Latvia: Matrevics; Jurkovskis, Savalnieks, Tonisevs, Balodis, Ciganiks; Daskevics, Vapne, Zelenkovs, Strods; Gutkovskis

Recent Form

Montenegro have been excellent across this Nations League campaign. Three wins followed by a goalless draw with Armenia gives them a four game unbeaten run in this competition, and if you extend that to their full international schedule, they have gone six games without defeat across all competitions. That is a team building real cohesion and playing with genuine confidence. The Armenia draw was arguably the flattest performance of that run, but a point at home is still a point, and the unbeaten record remained intact.

Latvia’s recent form reads like a cautionary tale. Three defeats and a draw from their four Nations League games, and before that their only competitive wins in well over a year came against Gibraltar, the group’s whipping boys who they needed to beat in a relegation playoff just to stay in League C. When your benchmark for success is avoiding the drop against Europe’s weakest sides, you are in a difficult place, and the results in this group have confirmed that Latvia simply do not have the quality to compete at this level right now.

The momentum gap between these two sides is as stark as it gets in international football at this level. Montenegro are going for gold, Latvia are going through the motions.

Head-to-Head Record

These two nations have met five times over the past fourteen years and Montenegro have never lost, posting three wins and two draws across those meetings. Crucially though, both of Latvia’s draws in this head to head came at Stadion Pod Goricom, so the visitors do have a minor historical footnote to cling to when they visit Podgorica. That said, the most recent meeting tells a different story entirely. Montenegro beat Latvia 2 to 1 in October, with Vasilije Adzic scoring twice, and nothing about Latvia’s displays since then suggests they have found an answer to that attacking quality.

The unbeaten record for Montenegro in this fixture reflects the general quality gap between the sides. Latvia keeping it level on two previous visits to Podgorica is interesting, but those draws feel like relics of a different era given how poorly they have performed in this campaign.

Key Stats

• Montenegro have taken 10 points from 4 games in League C2, the best return in the group by some distance.
• Latvia have just 1 point from their 4 matches and are yet to register a win in this Nations League campaign.
• Vasilije Adzic scored twice in the reverse fixture in October, underlining just how dangerous Montenegro’s creative midfielder can be against this opposition.

Montenegro vs Latvia Betting Tips

This fixture shapes up as one of the more straightforward calls in the Nations League this week. Montenegro are in form, motivated by the prospect of wrapping up promotion, playing at home, and facing a Latvia side that has looked toothless throughout this campaign. The value is firmly in backing the hosts to win comfortably, with Adzic and Osmajic the standout threats in front of goal.

Correct Score Prediction

Montenegro 2 to 0 Latvia feels the natural landing spot here. The hosts should have far too much going forward, and Latvia’s inability to create chances consistently across this campaign makes a clean sheet for Montenegro a genuine possibility. Two goals for the home side reflects their quality without getting carried away.

Corners Prediction

Montenegro pressing forward on home soil against a side likely to defend deep should generate a healthy volume of corners. Expect the hosts to dominate territory and Latvia to concede set piece situations regularly as they try to hold their shape. Over 9 corners in the match looks a solid call given how one sided the territorial battle should be.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 3.5 goals is probably the smarter play here despite the quality gap. Latvia will defend with numbers and make it difficult, as they have done in some of their away games, and Montenegro may not need to go hunting for a cricket score once they establish a lead. Two or three goals feels the right range, so under 3.5 goals offers decent cover.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Vasilije Adzic is the standout pick here. The Sassuolo midfielder scored twice against Latvia in October and has been the creative heartbeat of this Montenegro side throughout the Nations League campaign. He drifts into dangerous areas, he has an eye for goal, and he clearly has Latvia’s number. First goalscorer at a competitive price makes plenty of sense.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Both teams to score looks unlikely here. Latvia have struggled to find the net across this campaign and their attacking options are further depleted by absentees. Montenegro’s back four has been solid and the visitors have rarely threatened in this competition. No on BTTS feels the right call, with the hosts capable of keeping a clean sheet.

Cards Prediction

Latvia may pick up a card or two as they look to disrupt Montenegro’s flow, particularly in midfield where the hosts have the superior quality. Montenegro already lost Lonar to a red card last time out, which is a reminder that this squad can get frustrated, but against a limited Latvia side the game should not boil over too badly. Over 3 cards in the match covers a few niggly challenges without expecting carnage.

Bet Builder Tip

Montenegro winning without Latvia getting on the scoresheet is well supported by the visitors’ toothless displays this campaign, and Adzic scoring first ties in neatly given his two goals against this same opposition just weeks ago.

Final Match Prediction

Everything points toward a comfortable Montenegro home win. They are the top side in the group, they are playing for promotion, they have the better players, the better form, and they already beat Latvia convincingly in the reverse fixture. Vucinic’s team know exactly what a win here could mean and they will not be taking the foot off the gas.

Latvia have shown nothing in this campaign to suggest they can get a result away from home against a side of this quality. The prediction is Montenegro 2 to 0 Latvia, with Adzic once again causing problems for the visitors and the hosts closing in on a return to League B.

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