Turkey vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Turkey

vs

Belgium

KickoffThursday 12 November 2026, 5:00pm

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Belgium cannot afford to sleepwalk through their final two Nations League fixtures. Mark van Bommel’s side sit third in League A Group 1, one point behind Italy and four adrift of France, and the mathematics are brutally simple: drop points in Turkey and watch the Azzurri beat France, and the Red Devils are done. The quarter-finals would be gone before they even play their last game. This is a fixture where Belgium need to deliver, not just turn up.

Turkey, on the other hand, are in survival mode under new gaffer Sergen Yalcin, who inherited a squad that had shipped 11 goals and scored just two across their opening four games. Their Nations League campaign has been a disaster, and while quarter-final qualification is long gone, there is still a slim lifeline available if they can claw their way to being one of the two best fourth-placed teams in League A. For that they need points, and they need them now. Yalcin’s honeymoon period starts here, in front of a home crowd in Izmir that will be desperate for something to cheer about.

Turkey vs Belgium Match Details

This penultimate League A Group 1 fixture takes place at Gursel Aksel Stadium in Izmir. Belgium arrive needing a win to keep the group alive heading into the final matchday, while Turkey are looking for their first points of the campaign under their new head coach. With both sides having genuine things to play for, there is real edge to this one despite the gap in recent form.

Team News

Both squads are dealing with notable absences, though Belgium’s situation looks considerably more manageable than Turkey’s going into this one.

• Kenan Yildiz is out for Turkey with a metatarsal fracture he sustained at Juventus and requires further treatment before returning to action.
• Kerem Akturkoglu, Irfan Kahveci, Samet Akaydin and Altay Bayindir were left out of the Turkish squad entirely after featuring last month.
• Centre-back Abdulkerim Bardakci is suspended for Turkey, further disrupting an already fragile defensive unit.
• Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Salih Ozcan and Can Yilmaz Uzun are all one booking away from suspension for the hosts.
• Thibaut Courtois continues to be absent from the Belgium squad on a self-imposed international break.
• Romeo Lavia is suspended for Belgium, ruling him out of the midfield.
• Koni De Winter refused his call-up over a lack of club minutes, opening the door for 20-year-old Josue Kongolo to earn his first senior cap.
• Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both back after serving suspensions last month, which is a major boost for Van Bommel.
• Jeremy Doku returns to the squad after missing the previous window through injury and is expected to start on the wing.
• Lukaku, Ngoy, Joaquin Seys, Nicolas Raskin and Dodi Lukebakio are all one yellow card away from a ban for the Red Devils.

Predicted Lineups

Yalcin does not have many options at the back given the Bardakci suspension, and you would expect Demiral and Kabak to form the central defensive partnership with Celik at right back and the excellent Ferdi Kadioglu on the left. Arda Guler should start in an advanced central role, and there is a little piece of history in the offing for Hakan Calhanoglu, who needs just one goal to surpass Tuncay and become Turkey’s third highest scorer of all time. That is the kind of narrative that gets a player’s mind right before kickoff.

Belgium’s selection picks itself in many positions now that De Bruyne and Tielemans are available again. With Lavia suspended, Tielemans slots straight back into the midfield engine room. Doku wide left and Lukebakio wide right give Van Bommel genuine pace and directness, while De Ketelaere looks set to operate in the number ten slot. The back four picks from a slightly stretched pool given injuries and refusals, but Mechele and Ngoy are likely to start centrally.

Recent Form

Turkey’s recent form is simply as bad as it gets at this level. Four defeats from four in the Nations League, conceding 11 goals and scoring just two, with that horror run coming off the back of a group stage exit at the World Cup over the summer. Montella paid the price with his job, and Yalcin has walked into a squad low on confidence and short on key personnel. There have been bright moments in this Turkish side when everyone is fit and firing, but right now they look vulnerable at the back and toothless in attack without Yildiz pulling strings in the final third.

Belgium, in contrast, have shown they can be excellent in this competition even if the France defeat stings. That 4-1 hammering at the hands of Les Bleus last month was Van Bommel’s first game in charge and it was a rough initiation, but the Red Devils had won each of their previous three Group 1 fixtures, including a 2-0 win away at Italy and a thumping 3-0 home victory over this same Turkey side. De Bruyne got two in that one, Lukaku added a third, and it was comfortable viewing. Belgium in full flow are a genuinely difficult side to live with.

What matters now is whether Van Bommel can get a reaction from his players after the France defeat. The return of De Bruyne and Tielemans to the midfield gives Belgium far more control and creativity than they had without them, and facing a Turkish side that has conceded freely throughout the campaign is about as good a fixture as the Red Devils could ask for to get back on track.

Head-to-Head Record

Belgium have lost just once in their last six meetings with Turkey across all competitions, which puts into context just how comfortable the Red Devils tend to find this fixture. The 3-0 win last month is the most recent data point, and it was not as close as a one-goal scoreline would suggest it was actually fairly straightforward once Belgium clicked into gear.

Turkey’s saving grace in this head-to-head is their home record. They are unbeaten in three matches against Belgium on their own soil, with the most recent of those coming in a 3-2 win during Euro 2012 qualifying. Home advantage, a new manager and a crowd desperate for a performance means you should never entirely write off the hosts, but that unbeaten run at home to Belgium feels like a long time ago given how dramatically this Turkish squad has regressed in recent months.

Key Stats

• Turkey have conceded 11 goals across their four Nations League fixtures this campaign, an average of nearly three per game.
• Belgium have beaten Turkey in each of their last two meetings without conceding a single goal, winning 3-0 and 2-0 respectively.
• Hakan Calhanoglu is one goal away from becoming Turkey’s third highest international scorer of all time, a milestone that will sharpen his focus in front of goal.

Turkey vs Belgium Betting Tips

Belgium are rightfully odds-on favourites here and it is not difficult to see why. They have the better squad, the better recent form in this exact fixture, and they are playing for something genuinely meaningful while Turkey are largely trying to salvage pride and avoid automatic relegation. The return of De Bruyne and Tielemans shifts the dynamic considerably, and facing a Turkish defence that has leaked goals all campaign long, the Red Devils should have the tools to take care of business.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Kevin De Bruyne is the standout pick here. Back from suspension, hugely motivated with qualification implications on the line, and facing a Turkish side that has struggled defensively all campaign. He scored twice against this same opposition last month and will be looking to put his stamp on a game where Belgium need to be clinical. He is the kind of player who shows up in big moments and this qualifies as one.

Correct Score Prediction

Belgium to win 2-0 looks the most compelling scoreline. They kept Turkey at arm’s length with that exact result in Italy and replicated the clean sheet effort against Turkey themselves last month. Van Bommel’s side are hard to beat when organised and Turkey simply do not look like a side capable of threatening a well-set defence right now. Two goals for the away side feels conservative enough to be realistic and aggressive enough to reflect where the quality sits.

Corners Prediction

Back over 9.5 corners in this one. Turkey will need to get bodies forward if they fall behind, and Belgium love to work play wide with Doku and Lukebakio both pressing high and looking to cut inside. Yalcin will want his side to go for it at home, which means attacking play from both teams and a decent volume of set piece situations. This has the makings of a corner-heavy fixture.

Cards Prediction

With several Turkish players on a yellow card warning, there is every incentive for Yalcin to remind his squad about discipline before kickoff. That said, a team under pressure at home and already on the edge of elimination tends to get reckless. Over 3.5 cards feels like fair value. Turkey will be intense and physical in their pressing early on, Belgium will have players who like to get forward quickly and draw fouls, and there is enough needle in this fixture to generate a decent card count.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Over 2.5 goals is the call. Turkey have shipped at least two in three of their four Nations League games this term and Belgium have scored freely against them in both recent meetings. Even if Belgium keep it tight defensively, they have the firepower to put two or three past a leaky back line, and there is enough attacking intent from the Turkish side under a new manager trying to make an impression to expect this to be an open game rather than a cagey one.

Bet Builder Tip

Belgium’s clean sheet record against Turkey in recent meetings, combined with their ability to score at least twice against a defence this porous, makes this a tidy combination that reflects where the value sits in this fixture.

Final Match Prediction

Turkey under Yalcin will want to show something, and there is always the possibility that a new manager spark gives the home side a lift in the opening stages. But Belgium have too much quality in the right areas, and the return of De Bruyne and Tielemans to the engine room gives Van Bommel a midfield that Turkey simply cannot match. The Red Devils have handled this fixture comfortably in their last two meetings and there is nothing in the current Turkish setup to suggest that changes here.

Belgium to win 2-0, with De Bruyne likely to have a hand in at least one of the goals. Three points for the Red Devils, the group stays alive heading into the final matchday, and Yalcin’s rebuilding job continues with no points on the board from his opening game in charge.

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