Burkina Faso vs Mauritania Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Burkina Faso

vs

Mauritania

KickoffFriday 13 November 2026, 4:00pm

CompetitionAfrican Cup of Nations Qualifying

Group F in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifying is tight as a drum right now, and this Friday fixture at Stade du 4-Aout could shake the whole thing up. Burkina Faso sit on four points from two games, with Benin just above them on goal difference alone. Win this one and Les Etalons go top. Drop points and the pressure builds fast. For Mauritania, the stakes are equally sharp. They missed the most recent AFCON entirely after three consecutive appearances, and this double header against Burkina Faso is make or break for their hopes of getting back to the tournament.

What gives this fixture real edge is the psychological dimension. Burkina Faso have beaten Mauritania in each of the last three encounters, including during the 2024 AFCON group stage. That kind of head to head record does things to a dressing room on both sides. Moussa Sanogo’s men will feel the fixture sets up nicely for them. Aritz Lopez Garai’s side, meanwhile, need to prove they can flip the script in a rivalry where they have consistently come up short.

Burkina Faso vs Mauritania Match Details

The game takes place at Stade du 4-Aout in Ouagadougou, the home fortress for Les Etalons. This is a Group F fixture in the 2025 to 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign, with both sides desperately needing points as the group tightens up around them.

Team News

Both squads arrive with a few things to sort before the starting eleven is finalised. Burkina Faso have one notable absentee but also a genuinely interesting return to factor in.

• Mohamed Ouedraogo is out through injury for the hosts.
• Issa Kabore picked up a knock in his most recent club outing for Wrexham but is expected to be fit enough to feature.
• Issoufou Dayo is back in the Burkina Faso fold after reversing his international retirement. The centre back had walked away from the squad in January following the AFCON but Sanogo has convinced him to return, which is a real boost to the defensive options.
• Mauritania have recalled Abderrahmane Sarr and Guessouma Fofana, neither of whom had featured for the national side since March.
• Aboubakary Koita arrives in strong club form, with two goals and two assists in his last four outings for AEK Athens.

Predicted Lineups

Burkina Faso are likely to set up in a compact shape that makes the most of their home advantage. Kabore should start at right back if he passes his fitness check, and the return of Dayo gives Sanogo an extra option at centre back alongside Edmond Tapsoba. Bertrand Traore leads the attack and remains the most dangerous outlet going forward.

Koffi; Kouassi, E Tapsoba, Djiga, Kabore; Doucet; Zagre, I Ouedraogo, A Tapsoba, Bouda; Traore

For Mauritania, Garai is likely to lean on the recalled Fofana in midfield alongside Ngom to give them some experience in the engine room. Koita is the standout threat and will be tasked with leading the attack. The back four should remain unchanged from their recent outings, with the emphasis on staying organised and not gifting Les Etalons an early goal.

Diop; Diaw, Lefort, Ba, Diadie; Ngom, Fofana; Koita, Diallo, Gassama; Camara

Recent Form

Burkina Faso are building nicely in qualifying. A draw at home to Benin and a win away to the Central African Republic gives them four points, and there is genuine belief that this squad can go deep in the qualifying campaign. The home record is worth noting too. Les Etalons have not lost a competitive game on their own patch in close to a decade, which tells you something about the fortress Stade du 4-Aout has become under consistent management.

That said, nobody is pretending the 7-0 hammering by Argentina in October did not happen. It did, and it matched their joint heaviest defeat in history. But Argentina are arguably the best team on the planet right now, and reading too much into a friendly against them would be like judging a Sunday league goalkeeper by how many he conceded against Erling Haaland. The qualifier form is what counts, and that looks solid.

Mauritania started their campaign well, beating the Central African Republic 1-0 in September, which extended their unbeaten run in AFCON opening qualifiers going back to 2015. But a 2-1 defeat to Benin snapped a three match unbeaten run and exposed some vulnerabilities at the back. They have conceded first in six of their last eight matches, which is a worrying pattern heading into an away fixture against a team as sharp in transition as Burkina Faso. One glimmer of hope for the Lions of Chinguetti is their late game resilience. They have scored in the 80th minute or later in five consecutive outings, so they tend to stay dangerous right to the end.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head to head is firmly in Burkina Faso’s favour. They have won each of the last three meetings against Mauritania, including their encounter at the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations. That run of results speaks to a consistent pattern rather than a one off result, and the Lions of Chinguetti will need to find something they have not managed in recent years if they are going to turn this around.

Away form in AFCON qualifying has been a real issue for Mauritania too. They have not won an away qualifier since June 2023, with their last four on the road producing just one draw and three defeats. Trying to end that run against a side with Burkina Faso’s home record is about as tough a test as it gets in this group.

Key Stats

• Only one of Burkina Faso’s last nine matches has produced fewer than two goals, pointing strongly toward a game with action at both ends.
• Mauritania have conceded first in six of their last eight matches, a pattern that suits a Burkina Faso side who like to get on the front foot at home.
• Mauritania have won just five of Garai’s 19 games in charge, a win percentage of just over 26%, and have not taken three points away in AFCON qualifying since June 2023.

Burkina Faso vs Mauritania Betting Tips

This fixture shapes up as a home win with goals involved. Burkina Faso have enough quality to control the game on their own turf, but Mauritania’s late game resilience and Koita’s form mean you should not write off the visitors scoring. The 7-0 friendly result against Argentina is irrelevant context here. Les Etalons against a winnable opponent at home is a very different proposition, and the qualifying record backs that up.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Bertrand Traore is the standout pick here. He is the most creative and dangerous outlet Burkina Faso have in the final third, and with the hosts expected to be on the front foot from the off, Traore getting on the scoresheet first feels like a genuine possibility rather than a hopeful punt.

Correct Score Prediction

A 2-1 to Burkina Faso feels like the right call. The hosts have enough to win comfortably on paper, but Mauritania’s late game habit of finding goals suggests it will not be a clean sheet. Les Etalons should do enough to take the points without it being a stroll.

Corners Prediction

Back over 8.5 corners in this one. Burkina Faso will be pushing forward on home soil and setting up to attack, while Mauritania will likely drop deeper and invite pressure, which creates the kind of wide play and delivery into the box that generates corners regularly. This should be a game with plenty of set piece situations.

Cards Prediction

With something meaningful at stake for both sides in a tightly contested qualifier, there should be a bit of edge to this one. Mauritania’s players will be battling hard to stay in the game and limit Burkina Faso’s threat, and that physicality tends to bring cards with it. Over 3.5 bookings looks a reasonable call in a match where neither side can afford to give the other any room.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Over 2.5 goals is the play. Only once in Burkina Faso’s last nine matches has the game produced fewer than two goals. Add in Mauritania’s tendency to nick late goals even when behind, and this feels like a fixture where the action keeps coming rather than fizzling out into a low scoring stalemate.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes to both teams scoring. Burkina Faso should find the net with the home advantage and their attacking quality, while Mauritania have shown across recent games that they carry a threat and tend to get on the scoresheet even in games where they are under pressure. BTTS yes has solid backing from the evidence on both sides.

Bet Builder Tip

A Burkina Faso win combined with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals ties together neatly given the hosts’ attacking intent, Mauritania’s habit of finding late goals, and the consistent goalscoring patterns in Les Etalons’ recent games.

Final Match Prediction

Burkina Faso should have too much for Mauritania on home soil. The head to head record, the fortress home record in competitive football, and the contrast in away form all point in one direction. Les Etalons will want to send a statement to the rest of Group F and push themselves to the top of the standings.

Mauritania will not roll over, and Koita in particular gives them a real weapon going forward, but winning away in AFCON qualifying has been beyond them for well over a year now. Burkina Faso to win 2-1, with both sides getting on the scoresheet in a game that has just enough edge to stay interesting until the final whistle.

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